Daily Archives: March 15, 2017

Fed Schmed

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I always find Fed days a bit strange. The markets seem to hang on the words of an institution that doesn’t actually control interest rates, which are set by the bond markets primarily on the markets for ten and thirty year treasuries. The Fed also doesn’t appear to employ any decent analysts to at least give them an idea of where bond yields might be heading, as shown in the bond bear massacre in 2014 at the end of QE3, where the Fed managed to convince almost everyone that the big rally on bonds that was obviously coming in 2014 would in fact be a big decline. If you’d like to read about that amazing train wreck then I was writing about it in the second half of a post in May 2014 and you can see that here.

Regardless of the ongoing mystery of why anyone pays any attention to the Fed, especially on a day where it seems that they have trailed this modest rate rise so heavily that everyone assumes that the probability of it happening today is close to 100%, and which in any event is just a case of them raising rates from almost zero to a little more than almost zero, I am posting an apposite Monty Python clip in honor of this non-event, though obviously I flatter the Fed with this implied comparison:

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A Couple of Thoughts

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We all have to sit around and wait for the old biddy to show up at 11:00 a.m. PST (2:00 p.m. EST). Well, she doesn’t actually show until half an hour after that, but the big announcement (e.g. “up another .25%”) is slated at the top of the hour. Here are a couple of charts to contemplate as we circle above the airport………

First off, the NASDAQ isn’t exactly participating in this morning’s equity rally with a lot of gusto; I continue to contend that the broken trendline means something:

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