Daily Archives: March 20, 2017

Shrodinger’s Tortoise Race

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Everyone knows the story of the story of the race between the tortoise and the hare, but what if the race had been between the tortoise and another tortoise? Which tortoise would have won the race? The answer is that no-one would know, as no-one would have remained awake until the end of the race. Moving sideways into quantum mechanics for a moment, one could then argue that in the absence of an observer, with the arguable exception of the tortoises, that neither tortoise won the race, if indeed there had been a race at all.

Where am I going with this? I’m just observing that the market tape has been impressively dull lately, and that it will be nice when things speed up a bit, at the end of this seemingly endless topping process. In that regard though, things are at least moving along a little.

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Every Time the Semis Do This…

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Every time SMH does this, it quickly pulls back.  At least that has been the case each time it has popped upward from an already overbought situation over the last 8 months.  Now, I am short the Semis (in a complete 180° from 10 months ago) and long the boring stuff, so I am talking my book.

But I am also talking this chart, and if the Semis prove that it is different this time I’ll have to cover in ignominy.  But it cannot be argued that these types of moves – sucking in the last of the momos – have routinely preceded mini and not so mini pullbacks throughout the rally.*

smh

* An aged rally, at that.  It was appropriate to get bullish when we did.  In my opinion it is inappropriate now… very inappropriate.  But we’ll see what the market decides. If it is going to blow off, the Semis could lead.  So there is obviously risk being short as well.

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