The bull flag channels broke up on both SPX and ES, and the obvious next target is a retest of the ATH on both. As long as wedge support holds, currently at 2365, then my working assumption is that, after an inside day today, an ATH retest is next, with a possible target above at wedge resistance, currently in the 2417 area. First support is at the 50 hour MA, currently at 2370/1. SPX 60min chart:
On the daily chart the rally high is a little under the daily upper keltner band, currently at 2391. Support is at the daily middle band, currently at 2370. SPX daily chart:
On ES I noted last night that a possible rising megaphone was forming, and that possible megaphone support is now in the 2357.5 area. ES respected that resistance trendline overnight, and a small double top has formed that on a sustained break below 2377.5 would look for 2366.25, a very close match with a backtest of the weekly pivot at 2365.50. On a failure to sustain trade below 2377.75 the next target would be the globex high at 2389.25 and probable continuation higher. The intraday action since the AM is a 70/30 bearish leaning triangle. ES Jun 60min chart:
There is also a rising megaphone on NQ and megaphone support is currently in the 5381 area. The intraday action since the AM low looks like a bear flag forming. NQ Jun 60min chart:
On TF the LOD so far is at the rising support trendline I was looking at though I’d note that a 60min sell signal has formed and fixed there, which suggests that the support trendline will probably break soon. That’s now at 1382.3. TF June 60min chart:
Overall I’m leaning 70/30 towards a retest of 2370 area support on SPX and a possible retest of rising wedge support, currently in the 2365 area. As I’ve been writing the NQ flag and the ES triangle have broken down and the TF support trendline is being retested. That will likely break soon. If SPX rising wedge support breaks at the possible retest then we may well see a new retracement low soon after that.
As I mentioned on Stan and I’s free public webinar on our ‘Big Five’ group of AAPL, AMZN, FB, NFLX and TSLA at theartofchart.net is actually an hour after the close tonight, rather than last night as had been stated on the March Webinar page, and if you’d like to attend you can register for that on this page here.