While the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is busy making new all-time highs, so is the NDX:VXN ratio (VXN is the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index), as shown on the following two Monthly charts.
What is different about these two, is that the NDX:VXN ratio has run up against major resistance (the top of its long-term uptrending channel, while the NDX has a long way to go before it does the same.
With reference to the ratio chart, a drop and hold below the 460 level (127.2% external Fibonacci retracement level) could forecast a drop down to, potentially, major support at 380 (100% Fib retracement level plus bottom of long-term channel) on this chart, or lower.
Here’s a special post for any Californians out there who wonder where their tax dollars are going. Some of you may have heard about this freak, who was convicted of vicious, murderous crimes and yet successfully demanded the state provide him expensive gender reassignment surgery, otherwise he might kill himself from depression.
So, in a sensible world, a razor blade would have been quietly provided and the officials could wait until their ongoing expense had addressed itself. Instead, the state fell all over itself to get the surgery that this weirdo so obviously deserved. Of course, the description of this person’s crimes depends on the source. If you read a heavily left-leaning publication, you get this: (more…)
It’s a big picture view with a story to tell. People are micro-managing the VIX, talking about how it either doesn’t work anymore, if it ever did, or is forecasting extreme doom imminently (through investor complacency). But what is “imminently”? Is it next month or is it the 2-3 years that this indicator often wallows along the bottom of its support zone before overseeing a coming Armageddon? Sure, it started wallowing in the zone back in 2013, but then the ‘fuel stops’ that were ultimately bullish (the 2010, 2011 and 2015 corrections) cleared the overhead inventory of investors out of the markets.
Sometimes you’ve got to let a picture marinate and tell its story, not impose your (relatively) hypersensitive brainwaves on it. The story this thing is telling is that Armageddon ’08 surely was a massive sentiment reset (of much greater power and significance than I originally thought it would be, when I got bullish in early 2009). On top of that big sentiment event that cleaned the markets out to a fully sanitized state, there were 3 subsequent eruptions of bearishness that may have reinforced the message of the 2008 disaster, sternly reminding casino patrons that this thing is not safe. (more…)
And of this pleasant garden that I have mostly goodly planted, I will make him gardener for his own recreation….
If all goes as planned, the greatest and most widely-used thing I ever created in my life is going to be snuffed out. ProphetCharts, used by traders all over the world for the past dozen years, is going to be eliminated from existence by those who bought it a dozen years ago.
It was, I suppose, inevitable, but when I first got the news last December, I felt a sadness I didn’t expect. I would never compare the sense of loss to losing a child – – a pain I pray I never experience and would never wish on anyone – – but it did seem like my “first baby” was being killed, and I felt powerless.
Bears have dominated the day today, though that hasn’t actually delivered a lot of downside on SPX or NDX. We may see a late rally into the close. Bigger picture this is day five of the daily upper band ride and if we see a weak close today and that follows through on Monday that would open a possible test of the daily middle band, currently at 2360. SPX daily chart: