Daily Archives: April 3, 2017

Please Don’t Shoot The Messenger

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

In many of my articles, I have been attempting to enlighten those with open minds as to the true nature of the stock market. While most market participants have been trained to believe that the market is mechanically driven by exogenous causation, I have been providing historical and recent examples of why this simply is a market fallacy.

We have had some resounding real world examples over the last two years to poke some significant holes into the mechanical exogenous causation perspective. Remember back to the Charlie Hebdo attack in France, the Fed rate hike in December of 2015, the certain “crash” calls in February 2016, Brexit, Trump, the Fed rate hike in December 2016, etc. We have experienced many news “shocks” which were supposed to cause serious damage to the market over the last several years. Yet, the market was still able to provide us with a 600 point rally up to 2400SPX from February of last year, and this is all AFTER the Fed stopped QE.

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Kiss Me, Kate

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One thing that failing companies like Twitter do to scare the bejesus out of sweet bears like me is to yammer on about how they’re going to sell themselves to the top bidder. This causes most bears to break out in a cold sweat about the giant premiums that other companies will pay.

I’ve learned to get over this fear. For instance, one of my 75 short positions is Kate Spade (KATE), shown below. Word on the street is that Coach is going to buy them (who else but a seller of overpriced handbags would want to buy another seller of overpriced handbags?)

0403-kate

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Testing the New Weekly Pivots

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Bulls needed to confirm Thursday’s break above the SPX daily middle band with a second close above the middle band on Friday, but didn’t manage it. We’re seeing a reaction to that fail so far today. SPX has broken below important trend support at the 50 hour MA, currently at 2355, and if that can be converted to resistance then that would support a possible retest of the daily lower band on the daily chart. SPX 60min chart:

170403 SPX 60min

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Surprisingly Good

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It always seems to be this way………..whenever the market day starts off totally boring and hum-drum is when I have a great day, and whenever things seem awesome and exciting (like early last week), the day sucks out loud.

So, as I was bitching this morning about how boring and dull things were, I left all my screens and went off to make my beloved family some banana nut muffins. I completely ignored the market, focusing instead of making sure the batter was well-aerated, since yesterday morning’s muffins were so dense they could have been used for personal defense.

0403-muffins

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