As can be seen from the following long-term view of 10 and 30 year bonds (monthly charts), each is facing an imminent decision…whether to break fairly substantial major support at their current levels and, potentially, fall to levels not seen since the 2008/09 financial crisis, or resume their flight-to-safety bounce to retest prior highs.
This week is a holiday week and these often lean bullish but the historical stats for this week are neutral. I’d note though that the historical stats for next week are bullish.
There’s been some impressively tedious tape on Friday and today so far and on the hourly charts all three of SPX, NDX and RUT have been testing their 50 hour moving averages as resistance and failing to sustain any breaks over them.
On the daily chart the picture is more mixed, with SPX and RUT both testing their daily middle bands as resistance, and NDX testing the daily middle band there as support. SPX daily chart:
Long FedEx Corp (FDX)
All right, I’ve got my box of Blue Bottle coffee, my Bob Ross playing, and the house is ice-cold, so I’m starting to get my wits about me again. I completely blew it this morning, in my got-up-too-late fog, and dumped my ETF positions (TWM, QID, ERY) in a fit of pique. That was not good. I have re-entered some ETF positions, but, sheesh, getting up at 7 a.m. doesn’t work for me. I really need to stick to my 5:30 a.m. arousal, as it were.
Looking at the commodity ETF below, I think it’s in big trouble, and oil will lead the way lower. My principal ally is tinted in green: all that overhead supply. I have offered up a prospective (and my preferred!) path with that red arrow.
I had an exhausting three days of traveling, so I did something that I hardly ever do: overslept. I got up at 7, which for me is the equivalent of getting up in the afternoon. One glance at my iPhone told me I wasn’t missing anything good: everything was up.
The ES is still beneath its triangle, but I’ve pulled my horns in: I got rid of all three of my positions in my “ETF only” portfolio, meaning zero risk exposure (and zero opportunity as well). I really want to see what happens with this triangle, and frankly the market has been extremely frustrating lately.