In a recent interview I conducted with the legendary market technician Robert Prechter, he offered some very interesting insights into how he views today’s market, along with his perspective on socionomics. He also provides us with a general forecast as to how he sees the market playing out in the coming decade.
1. How did you come across Elliott wave analysis?
My dad subscribed to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters, and he would occasionally forward his copies to me. In 1968, Russell began writing about A.J. Frost’s Elliott wave work. He published wave interpretations for the Dow off and on through late 1974, when he called the end of the bear market. During that time, I began charting gold and gold stocks, labeling the waves. After I became a professional technician at Merrill Lynch in 1975, I went on a search for Elliott’s original books, which were published in ring binders. The Library of Congress didn’t have them. Finally, I found copies on microfilm in the New York Public Library. It was a thrill coming across those listings on library cards. In 1980, I republished Elliott’s original books and articles in what is now called R.N. Elliott’s Masterworks. Later I published all of Bolton’s, Frost’s and Russell’s Elliott wave writings along with bios and notes. In case you know any Elliott wave fanatics who want these books, my staff set up a discount page good through May here.
2a. This question is simply asking for your perspective on how markets have changed – if at all – over the decades in which you have been analyzing Elliott waves. (more…)
As of mid-day on Friday (April 21), and during the past couple of range-bound months, the Technology sector is outperforming the large-cap and small-cap stocks, as shown on the following charts.
It’s still sitting above both its 20 and 50 day moving averages, while the Dow 30, S&P 500, S&P 100, Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 Indices are below their 50 MA, with bearish 20 and 50 MA crossovers.