Daily Archives: April 25, 2017

Extending and Extended

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I was saying yesterday morning that bulls wanted to hold 2368/9 on the backtest to go higher. The low of the day was 2369.19 and here we are. Short term though there is some formidable resistance at the daily 3sd (three standard deviations away from the middle band) upper band at 2394. Breaks over this level are rare, and an actual retest of the high will likely need to wait until tomorrow, when the 3sd upper band will be higher. SPX daily chart:

170425 SPX Daily

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Crude Hammering a Bottom?

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My bearishness toward energy has been chilling quite a bit lately. As I mentioned, I sold my ERY long position on Friday (at a nice profit), and I’ve been reducing the quantity of my energy shorts. It’s kind of a shame, since this was sort of the last bastion of bearishness, but crude seems to be forming a hammer on its front month, and tomorrow morning’s inventory report might provide a relief rally, so I’d rather not be short the sector.

0425-crudes

Volatility Crash

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Everywhere you look – – green, green, green, lifetime highs, soaring charts, with one notable exception. Volatility, of course! The fear index $VIX has, in just 1.5 years, collapsed from 53.29 to almost the single digits. Indeed, there is only ONE time in the past decade it’s been even a little bit lower, and that was back on January 27th. This is about as low as it goes, folks.

0425-vix