I Still Think the Consolidation Takes More Time
First published on Saturday April 22 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: With the GDX breaking below the 24 level this past week, it has strongly suggested that it is not yet ready for a parabolic run. And, as I noted during the mid-week update, it even opens the door to another drop below the March lows before the parabolic run begins:
“. . . the issue I have with it is that the high was struck into an a=c target, which most often denotes a corrective rally. It is for that reason that I wanted to see the .618 extension of that rally hold so that I can continue to view it as an impulsive structure. But, Fibonacci Pinball suggests that once that .618 extension breaks resoundingly, the greater probabilities shift towards that rally being a corrective rally. For this reason, I am viewing the yellow count now as a much stronger potential.”
“Moreover, I will note that if we can see a higher high made in the GDX in the coming week, then I can consider the pattern as a leading diagonal up for a wave (i) as modified on the daily chart. Yes, I know this has gotten more complex than I had wanted, but I am trying to maintain an open mind to the potential I am seeing in the market.”
As of the weekend, my perspective on GDX remains the same.