Extending and Extended

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I was saying yesterday morning that bulls wanted to hold 2368/9 on the backtest to go higher. The low of the day was 2369.19 and here we are. Short term though there is some formidable resistance at the daily 3sd (three standard deviations away from the middle band) upper band at 2394. Breaks over this level are rare, and an actual retest of the high will likely need to wait until tomorrow, when the 3sd upper band will be higher. SPX daily chart:

170425 SPX Daily

With yesterday’s backtest, this is a thrust up from a triangle, and when the thrust up completes then we should see a full retracement back to 2369. These moves tend to be terminal moves, the last move in a wave sequence, so that fits with the high window that SPX is in at the moment, and the high made here should last for several months. SPX 60min chart:

170425 SPX 60min

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ES is heading towards an ATH retest, and a possible weak 60min sell signal is now brewing. No clear pattern for this thrust up that I have identified so far. ES Jun 60min chart:

170425 AM ES Jun 60min

Overnight NQ tested the possible rising megaphone resistance that I was looking at earlier and that held for a few hours before breaking up. This could be a bearish overthrow move but if that is the case then NQ really shouldn’t go much higher. NQ is testing serious trendline resistance on the bigger picture charts in the 5550 area. This move today has failed the 60min sell signal and there is no current 60min negative divergence. NQ Jun 60min chart:

170425 AM NQ Jun 60min

TF has made a marginal new ATH as expected and that’s holding as resistance so far. Yesterday’s 60min sell signal on TF has also failed, along with all six of the RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals on the 15min charts that all fixed in the last hour of RTH yesterday. TF Jun 60min chart:

170425 AM TF Jun 60min

I would very much like to see a full retest of the all time high on SPX, as that would set strong weekly sell signals brewing. If we are going to see that full retest then I’d expect to see that tomorrow or on Thursday at the latest. Ideally there would be a sharp retracement first and then a high retest to set up negative divergence on the daily and hourly charts.

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