The amount of negative press coverage emanating from Washington in relation to President Trump since his election last November has been relentless and, at times, apoplectic. This is simply my unbiased observation, as I do not condone or condemn any of it.
So far, the equity markets have ignored the rants from the media and political opponents. The SPX is hovering at all-time highs, as shown on the following Monthly chart, and has gained 12.2% since the election, as shown on the percentages-gained graph below of the Major Indices. (more…)
In NFTRH 447 we used individual daily charts for the CRB index and various individual commodity items. This was in order to better view details of the bearish (but bouncing, as expected) state of the complex. Below are some of the more general daily charts we usually review (along with weekly charts) each week in NFTRH.
CRB and crude oil look bearish, NatGas is stable to constructive, copper is bearish as it consolidates the big bump, Agri is neutral/non-starter and the Uranium holder is bearish, exactly as we expected the fallout from the previous pump job to be.
I have endlessly touted the virtues of shorting Pier One, the seller of scented candles, bongo drums, and other knick-knacks from around the world that, let’s face it, no household really needs. This short is really starting to kick into gear.
The opening setup today on both SPX and NDX is close to ideal if we are going to see the swing high that Stan and I are expecting to see here. If that’s going to happen, the odds are decent that it will happen at marginal new highs on SPX and NDX today.
On SPX there is now a nicely formed RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal brewing. That will need some downside to fix the signal but I’m expecting that signal to take SPX on the first leg down on this expected multi-month retracement into the summer. SPX daily chart:
If there’s one sector that’s been consistently generous to investors over the past eight years, it’s semiconductors. One glance at the ETF for this sector is all it takes (and, appropriately enough, the ticker is the same as the Internet term for Shaking My Head……….as in astonishment):