By Mike Paulenoff, MPTrader.com
The lower-than-expected build in natural gas inventories (28 bcf vs. expected 37 bcf) in the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report released yesterday (Thursday, August 10) goosed the price of the nat gas futures.
Our technical work anticipated the move, and we still see continued upside for the futures as well as for the VelocityShares 3x Long Natural Gas ETN (UGAZ).
The positive juxtaposition of our nearer-term momentum gauges with the sideways price action on the nat gas futures chart (July contract) was one of the indicators we used, which you can see on the chart from August 8.
We actually added a long trade in UGAZ back on August 2, when the nat gas futures clawed their way above important resistance at 2.835, which corresponded to a price of 11.07 in the UGAZ.
As we now know, natural gas rocketed yesterday above the July 31 unfilled downgap area at 2.89-2.92, towards a challenge of the next significant resistance zone at 2.97-3.00.
If hurdled and sustained, this will trigger potential for a run at multi-month resistance at 3.10-3.11.
The UGAZ has already exceeded our initial initial target of 12.40, and is up over 15% since we added it, with our next target at 13.25.
After today’s dramatic 36-point drop in the SPX, price on the SPX:VIX ratio plunged to the upper edge of a “Major Conflict Zone” and the “Bull/Bear Line-in-the-Sand” level, as shown on the Monthly ratio chart below.
A drop and hold below this critical 150 major support level will seal the fate of increased volatility and lower prices for the SPX. The Momentum indicator has also fallen below the zero level, confirming that instability is in store for this index, for the longer term, if it stays below zero.
Each candle on the following ratio chart of SPX:VIX represents a period of One Quarter. (more…)
As I woke up at 5:30 a.m. this morning, I’ve got to say I wasn’t at all surprised to see this on the ES: