Last eclipse post, promise………..I wanted to share with you a video I took of what happened when totality occurred. There were about thirty or so people gathered together in rural Oregon with me, and you can hear people’s reactions (including my own – – and, trust me, this is probably the only time I’ve used the word “dude” before, but I was in a state of shock).
One of my favorite Thomas Jefferson quotes is that ‘the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants’. Among other things that’s a reminder that all the powers of the state, however benign or harmless they may seem, are ultimately based on force and the threat of force, and every so often the use of violent means is inevitable either to maintain, alter or curtail that power.
What’s my point? Well markets are similar in the sense that any trend needs to be refreshed from time to time with the extraction of red ink either from those who challenge it, or those who defend it, sometimes both. In a downtrend that often involves a backtest of the daily middle band and it looks like we have another of those coming up shortly. (more…)
My silly little trendline has been doing a yeoman’s job of predicting when these microscopic bear markets are over. Those blue ovals mark when fear has peaked and reverse. The question is how much of a dry spell do we face now before we get yet another dance with volatility.
Note from Tim: I’m back, safe and sound! I’ll be doing a final “eclipse post” when I have gone through the photos from my camera’s memory card. In the meanwhile, I’ll just say that the ES appears to be simply bouncing back toward its broken trendline.
And now, let’s here from Strawberry Blonde!………(more…)