I will make clear at the outset the fond feelings I have for ZeroHedge, which is an incredibly successful blog which makes bad news and gloomy forecasts its speciality.
Appropriately (or ironically) enough, the site launched precisely at the start of the most massive sustained asset appreciation in human history, and of the 7,398 times they’ve predicted Doom, nothing has happened. (No one need remind me of the quote about glass houses).
I gave it a bit of thought, and just off the top of my head, below are some of the mega-events I’ve read about repeatedly over the past eight years, along with their outcomes.
Let me know if I’ve missed any big ones (or upvote anyone who has done so with whom you agree).
I just finished up a more comprehensive examination of the market in a PLUS post here, so if you’re a member, check it out (and if you’re not, consider trying out a membership).
The ES has rocketed (which is appropriate, given the missile threats) higher lately, and we’re getting very close to the underbelly of that broken trendline. Umm, if the market wouldn’t mind, this would be a pretty good place to slow down and reverse.
Short Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)
A week ago I commented on my SPX hourly chart that the obvious target for this move was falling channel resistance and SPX finally hit that at the high yesterday. After the confused mess of the last five days of trading that at last gives a clear setup here.
This falling channel is a likely bull flag which on a break up would have a minimum target at a retest of the all time high. The rising wedge from the March low has already retraced over 38.2% of the wedge so SPX could break up now into that retest. The open 60min buy signal likes that option and arguably so does the falling megaphone that has formed on the RSI 14 over the last few days. On the other hand a reversal here could well still reach the ideal 50% retracement target at 2405 that I gave at the end of July. Channel support is now in the 2395 area and a little low for that but there are a couple of alternate falling wedge support trendline options that could deliver a low close to that number. (more…)