Daily Archives: September 28, 2017

He Went Galumphing Back

By -

As far as I’m aware the only nonsense word from Lewis Carroll’s Jabberwocky to make it into general usage was ‘galumphing’ a wonderful word evoking something large and ungainly achieving speed without grace. Still a favorite word of mine, though not one I get a chance to use often.

NDX has reversed back up on a setup I show on the NQ daily chart below, and the obvious read is that NDX is galumphing back to a retest of the all time high, though NDX still looks heavy and might fail to deliver on that.

In the meantime SPX delivered a higher high and the possible daily RSI 5 / NYMO buy signal that I was hoping to see start brewing on a higher high is now brewing, and should fix as an when this move up tops out. SPX daily chart: (more…)

Effective Market Management: Art & Science

By -

saul steinberg
From Saul Steinberg’s 1954 drawing ‘The Line’

The notion that there is art involved in interpreting the economy and financial markets is probably heresy to many market participants and probably 99.9% of economists (that .1% guy being the one who’s excluded from the meetings and egghead social gatherings), whether they be right or left leaning (I always find it entertaining to hear right wing and left wing economists duke it out, as I did on NPR yesterday, coming to diametrically opposed conclusions amid the tax reform debate). (more…)

TBT Advance Gains Momentum

By -

As we noted in our article last week, we have had strong reasons technically as well as from a macro perspective to be bullish on the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) since its low just under 33 on September 7.

And the TBT has continued to rise since then.  It gapped up Wednesday to $35.50 from Tuesday evening’s close at $34.46.

The upward thrust occurred just in advance of the unveiling of the President’s Tax Reform Plan (Wednesday at 3 PM ET), so we have to couch its bullish action under that umbrella.  But with lower taxes for most individuals and businesses and a one-time business foreign repatriation tax-break being reasons to anticipate an increase in spending, infrastructure, and investment, higher interest rates likely will be a bi-product of such a policy mix — if tax reform becomes law. (more…)

Pee Wee

By -

A good friend of mine (a Sloper from Mexico, and a very cool fellow overall) sent me the chart below, which illustrates the biggest drop in the S&P 500 for any given year, going way back to when Teddy Roosevelt was in office. In case anyone didn’t mention it to you already, 2017 is the most godawful year so far (for bears) in that entire century, since its drawdown is the puniest ever.

0928-drawdown