This entire week has been spent doing one thing: just hanging out beneath the trendline. No surge (thank God). No break. Just………..lingering. I have no quarrel with the ES being down a few points here and there, but for Pete’s sake, can we get a -40 one of these days? Is it no longer possible? Because the trendline is BROKEN, and it’s time to plunge, baby.
In spite of this quagmire for equities, there has been at least one definitive change this week, and that is the failure of the US dollar against other major currencies. It isn’t anything dramatic, but it’s an important shift, and if that obese little troll in North Korea ever decides to start getting really serious, instead of blustering, you’ll see this swan-dive.
Oh, and as for the super-strong crude oil, I think this is going to be a terrific fake-out. We have absolutely rocketed this week thanks, I suppose, to weather activity, but the big picture with crude oil, to my eyes, remains bearish, and this is all counter-trend.
Having said that, there is, of course, one teeny little matter whose outcome will be clear once this weekend is over…………