As I read through the blogs and public articles on miners and the GDX, it has become quite evident that many have now turned either bearish or completely indifferent to this complex. In fact, it seems as though the number of hits being seen in the Seeking Alpha metals section has dropped dramatically over the last year.
It seems most are looking for the metals to just drop from right here for a myriad of reasons. (Well, that is, other than those who only see the word “UP” when you mention the word “gold” to them). For those who usually place their expectation upon the immediate direction of the complex, it would seem that the recent drop in price has them expecting it will immediately continue to drop. Isn’t linear analysis wonderful? So, it would make sense, at least from a sentiment standpoint, that we need to get a number of them believing that the market is about to rally strongly, which will then trigger our trap door. (more…)
I was searching for something on Slope the other day, and totally by chance one of the results was an ancient post from over a decade ago. It was mildly interesting re-reading it, especially the comments, since we were in the throes of a bull market that was never ending (like, umm, right now).
What caught my eye was a guy I had long forgotten about, Merrill Howard Kalin, who had his own cooking show on public access. Some things have changed over the past ten years, but my warped, deranged sensibility about what’s amusing has not. To those easily offended, don’t even click Play, because I don’t want to hear your griping. I’m not in the mood. Just remember……….raw chicken+cutting board+salad greens=danger.
Of the seven different put options positions I’ve got, XLP (Consumer Staples) is probably my favorite, because its pattern is cleanest. From a long-term perspective, its uptrend is broken, even in this stupid new-highs-every-day market of ours:
I recently read a missive by John Mauldin wherein he makes an observation of what he is seeing from similar types of “analysis” of the stock market today:
“. . . a quick search of the usual suspects on the internet reveals a metric boatload of market analysts complaining about sky-high valuations, 8.5 years of bull market momentum, passive investing, over-concentration in cash-flow producing assets and the impending doom of a correction so massive it will clean our colons as well as our bank accounts.”
For those of you who read Seeking Alpha regularly, what percentage of the articles about the general equity markets have you read that have pointed to us being in a strong bull market and continuing much higher over the last 2 years? Based upon the ranking of the market analysts on this site, it would certainly suggest that most of the articles have leaned bearish, and, yes, I am being kind with that categorization. I mean, are these articles really necessary to explain to me that there are risks inherent in the financial markets? And, here I thought making money was easy. (more…)