Daily Archives: November 17, 2017

Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom

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This was going to be part of an NFTRH update, but I decided to make it public, as we’ll have plenty of other information to work on this weekend in NFTRH 474 after such an eventful market week.

With all due caveats about the non-stellar gold CoT data (we’ll update in #474) I wanted to note a constructive situation in gold vs. oil, which is a key sector fundamental consideration. Now, there is still a constructive situation in play for nominal crude oil, so take this post for perspective more than anything.

Pardon the massive charts (click to expand) but I am going to start using these personally so that I can fully take into account the historical market aspects that go further back on a daily chart. They just don’t present as well at the website, unless clicked. So I’ll mostly use the smaller, clearer charts for public consumption. (more…)

Janus Flags

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The Janus flag setup I was looking at on Wednesday delivered yesterday and I’ll talk a little more about these today as they are relatively common and worth remembering.

In this case on SPX what appears to be a high quality H&S has formed and broken down towards a target in the 2635 area. In truth though, as shown on the chart below, a perfect bull flag channel has also formed, which broke up yesterday with a strong minimum target at a retest of the all time high.

What were the tells here? The RSI divergence buy signals and lack of topping patterns on the hourly NQ and TF, and the channel/wedge shaped decline on SPX. A classic example of this kind of continuation flag is a break below the reversal pattern support and then rejection from there breaking declining resistance from the high, and that is what we have seen here. (more…)

The Metals Market Is A Mess

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When I sat down to review how I can update the analysis I provided to our members in my mid-week update, I realized that there is not much more technical analysis I am able to add to what I wrote to our membership in my mid-week analysis, so I am going to repeat it here, with some additional general thoughts below:

While I strive to provide deep insight into the markets I track for you, I am somewhat at a loss in this region with the metals, especially with the various charts presenting quite differently.  

For those that have followed me for years, you know when I am bullish and you know when I am bearish.  And, for the great majority of the time, my bullishness and bearishness have been appropriate to prepare for impending price action.  However, we are now in a region of uncertainty, and I don’t think I can classify it any better than that at this point in time. (more…)