Monthly Archives: December 2017

Measuring the Mania

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It seems everyone is talking about Bitcoin these days. On ZeroHedge, I’d say easily half the articles are crypto-related. And why not? The equity market has become a bore. How much can you say about a market which basically goes up about half a percent day after day until the end of time? I’ve anchored my life to discussing equity markets, God help me, so having something that actually moves up AND down is exciting and novel after the past eight years.

Of course, daring to predict ANYTHING about cryptos is a fool’s errand. Just a few months ago, a Bitcoin trader and “expert” offered up this prediction for the second half of the year:

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Chirp Chirp, Chirp Chirp… Silence?

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The canary chirped in 2013 as its equipment sector ramped up its bookings and we kept up with the bullish data every step of the way after that with updates like this one.

Semi Sector & Stock Market (2014)

The canary chirped again, as we noted amid much resistance if not outright contempt (this is when a supposed tech “expert” was held up in stern refutation of my stance, by a former subscriber whose trusted experts were then bullish gold and bearish Semi *).

AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode (2016)

Then in November 2017 it was time to begin a new narrative as the MSM pumped a fund manager who, though bullish the FANGs, thought he’d found some great relative value for 2018 in the Semi sector. The link below clearly refutes that and gives reason to believe that these goofy troubadours in the MSM are going to lead a lot of new market participants to slaughter. (more…)

Gold Fingered

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You could have put money into anything – – anything at all – – over the past six years and done better than gold. Real estate………stocks……….kitty litter. Gold has been a total piece of garbage, and I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that gold bugs have finally up to “here” with the so-called precious metal and are just jumping over to cryptos. Here’s this miserable piece of crap:

slopechart_GLD

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A Good First Outing

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The big talk in the financial world is, of course, the launch of Bitcoin futures. The CBOE site faced the embarrassment of going down within minutes of the launch on Sunday, but in general, Bitcoin continues to feel the wind at its back. At one point this weekend, it was a full 25% off its peak (a rather sharp fall for such a short amount of time), but it’s fairly near its highs now. Next weekend, the CME joins the party and launches their own futures. The chart below is intraday, and although $BTC has recovered powerfully, it seems to be having trouble getting past around the $17,000 mark.

slopechart_$BTC

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Checking In on the Triplets

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On this very quiet weekend, I thought I’d check in on the three ETFs against which I own June 2018 puts. As is obvious, these are puts with a deliberately large amount of time left on them (nearly 200 days), which gives them at least some opportunity to work out. Recent market action hasn’t been terribly encouraging, but they’re all three still in the money, and like I say, there’s lots of time left.

The first one is the financials, which has one of the cleanest analogs I’ve ever seen in my life.

slopechart_XLF

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