As we heard toward $20,000 this weekend on Bitcoin……….I will preface this by saying I don’t have a dog in this fight. Whether Bitcoin plummets to its intrinsic value of $0.00 and makes people look like idiots, or whether it goes to a trillion dollars per Bitcoin, it doesn’t matter to me. But I want to point out something I find just…….weird.
The press (and, in particular, Bitcoin fanboyz) seem obsessed with the notion that the market cap, so to speak, of Bitcoin is DESTINED to ascend to some higher level. We see diagrams like this:
See edit at end, adding in the favorable gold and silver CoT.
We have been expecting a seasonal rally in gold, silver and the miners off of a bottom due in either December or January, as is typical of the sector. I’ve marked up Sentimentrader‘s seasonal gold pattern to show the secondary low made (on average over 30 years) in December and the January ramp up that follows (on average).
But we’ve long contended that noise about global strife (geopolitics), inflation and most of all China/India demand need to be tuned out and the larger component planets of the Macrocosm ™ need to be respected in order to call a real bull market phase in gold and gold stocks. (more…)