Daily Archives: December 20, 2017

Who Feels the Sting

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Now that the massive new tax bill has passed, I thought I’d do a little experiment with a spreadsheet to see how a hypothetical Silicon Valley, California earner might be affected. I was sure his tax bill would be higher, but I am surprised at how much higher.I wouldn’t be surprised if some people decided not to stay in their homes since their tax bite is so substantial.

I will preface this by saying I’m not a tax expert, but I’ve got a pretty good understanding of taxes, and I put together a deliberately simplistic spreadsheet for this experiment. And while it may be simplistic, it still makes a powerful point, and the tiny amount of rounding error for an actual tax form won’t change the conclusion. (more…)

Return To Santa, Address Unknown

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I’m definitely in a holiday mood this week. That’s not really due to declining workload, by the time I finish today I’ll have published between 55 and 60 charts and three videos, but nonetheless the holidays are in the air and I’m feeling festive.

Santa has been AWOL for a couple of days on the indices though, and while I’m expecting this to resolve up into high retests we are starting to run a little short of time this week. Intraday Video – Update on ES, NQ and TF:

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2017 For the Bears

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As some of you may recall, when our man Gartman was asked this question, he had this response:

surprising

I would offer up a different answer myself – – maybe “blows” or “sucks out loud”. Something along those lines. Because, as you’ve seen, this hasn’t been just a bullish year; it’s been a never-before-seen, unprecedented, all-records-broken kind of year,with things like 12 up months in a row (never happened before).

I won’t bother digging up all the other ‘never happened before’ items, but they’re there. This is nicely illustrated with the bearish fund symbol HDGE: (more…)

Hey! Tony Randall!

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One of my favorite SNL sketches of all time is Mr. Short Term Memory (The Game Show). Hulu viewers can see it here, although, weirdly, sometimes it just plays for free. Anyway, the basis of the sketch is a contestant on a game show, Jeff, can only remember things for a few moments, so he completely botches everything but sometimes wins the game anyway. He keeps getting re-excited over things he should already have known from before.

That, in a nutshell, captures this market beautifully. It has “rallied on tax reform” practically every day for months now, particularly lately. Hopefully today this multi-trillion dollar gift to the richest among us will sail through the House (again……….), get a photo-op with the POTUS, and we’ll all be done with hearing about it. In the meantime, everything is green. Again.

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