Daily Archives: January 24, 2018

Something I Learned

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Back on the 21st, I wrote an extremely brief book review about Sapiens. “Review” is probably too highfalutin a word, though, since I did little more than paste a few paragraphs from the Amazon site and wrote that I really enjoyed the book. I wanted to say something meaningful, but I was being lazy and just tossed it out there as a post to close the day.

However, Strawberry Blonde made this comment (I think she has ESP):

sb

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A Few Words on the Gold Sector

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As the long-term interest rate Amigo continues upward, the anti-USD ‘inflation trade’ continues onward and more and more gold bug writers emerge from the woodwork, it is time for a little antidote to the inevitable pitches and hype to come.

Everything is playing to script and with this little pullback to a higher low in the miners being resolved in the favored direction, the writer bugs are going to further their bullish message and try to get more reader bugs to follow their guidance. But absolutely nothing has changed.

We caught the seasonal rally amid much disgust by writer and reader bugs, and it has simply not yet concluded. Nothing more to read into it than that. While I think 2018 is likely to see the confirmation of a new bull market, a selling opportunity is probably upcoming amid gold bug bravado and pomp (oms) because the fundamentals are not yet in order. (more…)

The Pig That Flew

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ES made a higher high this morning, slightly overthrowing wedge resistance, which could need to be slightly redrawn, and then rejected into a test of wedge support, reversing back up there exactly. That has delivered the move I was looking for yesterday, but if we are really seeing something significant change, then there will need to be a round two. The characteristic bear fail in 2017 was to do the first decline in a sequence, and then resume the uptrend without delivering a follow-up. The next test is to see whether that happens again here. The NQ chart is encouraging there, as the NQ rising wedge broke support at the LOD, and that would generally follow through. Intraday Video – Update on ES, NQ and TF:

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Down the Drain

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My broad disposition these days is (a) bearish bonds (b) bullish precious metals (c) WTF on equities. I will say, however, there are select equity sectors that I think are still able to (gasp) descend. One of them is real estate. The ETF below illustrates this nicely; it is the triple-bullish fund based on real estate, and as you can see, it’s in a terrific topping pattern. It did a fantastic job filing its gap, and now I think it’s going to be descend-a-palooza.

drn