Monthly Archives: February 2018

Obviously

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There are countless quotes, aphorisms, and bromides related to the world of trading. One of the best known is Joe Granville‘s: “If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong.”

Having lived with, considered, and occasionally applied this nugget of wisdom over the years, my conclusion is that what’s “wrong” is actually the quote itself. I believe its principal appeal is that it has that counter-intuitive, funny-because’s-it’s-ironically-true sensibility to it. Kind of like Mark Twain’s “….the coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco.” Har de har har. (more…)

Presidential Picks (Part 2 of 3)

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Preface to all three parts: It’s a lazy weekend, so I’m going to be a lazy blogger and break my 45 short positions into three separate posts via SlopeChartsPart 1 will have the first 10 of these positions and will be open to all. Part 2 will have the next 15 positions and will also be open to all. And Part 3 will have the final 20 positions and will be exclusive to Slope PLUS members. I will zoom in on whatever part of the chart I feel is most germane or helpful for display.

slopechart_AVGO (more…)

Presidential Picks (Part 1 of 3)

By -

Preface to all three parts: It’s a lazy weekend, so I’m going to be a lazy blogger and break my 45 short positions into three separate posts via SlopeCharts. Part 1 will have the first 10 of these positions and will be open to all. Part 2 will have the next 15 positions and will also be open to all. And Part 3 will have the final 20 positions and will be exclusive to Slope PLUS members. I will zoom in on whatever part of the chart I feel is most germane or helpful for display.

slopechart_AAP (more…)

Bouncey Bouncey Bouncey

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I cannot shake the feeling that the market gods are trying to trick me. I keep looking at these charts and wondering to myself, “there is NO WAY they are going to make it this obvious.” Because during the depths of the sell-off, the “obvious” move was a rally to the low 25000s on the Dow, which is exactly what happened. Now that we’ve recovered about 62% of the drop, the next obvious move is another plunge, taking out the lows from early February. If by some miracle that transpires, I will fall over backwards at how easy it SHOULD have been to trade (I’m too much of a worrywart to aggressively position myself, in spite of the aforementioned obviousness).

Here’s the DIA ETF, for instance. We’ve got a perfect shooting star reversal formation on Friday, and we’ve come full circle on the retrace back to where the serious fall commenced (at the arrow).

diatwo (more…)

Like a National Guitar

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I feel that I’ve seen a dystopic future of the United States.

Here I am, visiting Memphis. I want to be clear that the weather is pleasant and I did this stroll in the middle of the day, so there’s no reason to see what I saw. Or, more specifically, to not see what I didn’t see, which is: other humans. I’ve been here for days, and it’s like something out of a science fiction novel. There’s nobody here. Morning, noon, or night, except for the occasional schizophrenic, there isn’t a soul. I took a few photos during my walk (and this is referred to as maps, literally, as Core Downtown):

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