Daily Archives: February 4, 2018

S&P 500 Index: Major Support at 2500

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Just a quick heads-up to mention that major support for the SPX sits between 2525 and 2485, as shown on the following daily and monthly charts.

There is a convergence of the 200-day moving average with two trendlines at 2525 on the daily chart, and, more importantly, a convergence of two external Fibonacci retracement levels with the +1 standard deviation level of a long-term uptrending regression channel at 2485 on the monthly chart.

If we see a major sell-off in equities, we may see price, ultimately, fall to somewhere around 2500  (a 10% drop from Friday’s close) before it stabilizes. Keep an eye on the FAANGs +5, as I more fully outlined here, as well as the 10YRT, as I described here and here. Further weakness in the FAANGs + 5, together with continued rising rates in the 10YRT, could very well propel such a drop in the SPX to that level, or lower. (more…)

Blow By Blow

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This is hilarious. From KIRO: “On Wednesday, January 31, 2018, KIRO Radio captured surveillance footage of a vandal trying to break in to one of our employee’s vehicles in our parking lot. While the suspect is still at large, we took the liberty to have John Curley give his play-by-play of the incident.

Amigo #2 (10yr Yield) Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing

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Over and over again I’ve been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is subject to change. The latest update was yesterday with a daily chart view.

Just look at them, the SPX vs. Gold Amigo, the 10yr & 30yr Yield Amigo and the Yield Curve Amigo. So happy-go-lucky while they ride. But #2, the one in the middle, looks like he’s bracing for something.

So okay, I played swami and nailed the Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings numbers on the head in this post from yesterday. We all get lucky here in the casino. Here is the post that the estimates came from the day before the Payrolls release. (more…)