This is mostly a comment cleaner. It’s just past 8, and I’m going to BED like an old man, because tomorrow is going to be an epic battle. Good night and good luck.
You think I’d be happy.
After all, days like Friday and Monday come along, oh, just about never. We have, in almost no time., seen bullish hubris hit with a flamethrower (perhaps even supplied by Mr. Musk). We have seen our smug bull friends have their accounts decimated (quite literally). And as for the White House, not only has it stopped tweeting about market highs, it issued some lame-ass little statement about how the fundamental economy was still strong and everything was going to be just peachy. Don’t you worry your fuzzy little heads.
All the same, I feel kind of lousy. it comes from three places, I suppose. (more…)
Looking back at a longer-term monthly view of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) compared with GOLD (GC) (blue bars) and WTIC Crude Oil (CL) (pink bars), we saw a broad correlation among these regarding rallies and pullbacks…until 2011 when the bounce in GC and CL stalled and, ultimately, sank in mid-2014, especially CL when it plunged to (just below) post-financial crisis levels in January of 2016.
As I write this post at 11:50am ET on Friday, we see that, while the SPX is just below all-time highs, GC faces major resistance at 1350, and CL is swirling around 65.00 (major resistance/support). (more…)
I was looking for a decline of more than 5% from the high on SPX to signal that the market was normalising into a more two way trading environment, and that has been hit today, and then some. On the video below I was noting the large amount of positive divergence on various charts and liking the odds for a rally that has not yet materialised, with SPX punching 1% below the daily lower band at the LOD so far.
This is impressive stuff, and the advances/declines level today is suggesting that we may see a repeat of Friday afternoon with a close at or near the low. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)
After careful consideration, I have decided selling my XLI puts early today was an error. Heh.
In any event, I’m still heavily short, and my departure from bond puts on Friday DID make sense. What we are witnessing is extraordinary. Congratulations to my beloved Slopers, many of whom I suspect are having superb days. We richly deserve this.
Another U.S. government shutdown looms this week on February 9th.
Will it…won’t it? That’s the $64,000 question as more volatility is in store for markets.
Given the fact that there are great political divides over a variety of policies, increased volatility in the markets, and, now, the information that’s being revealed that may determine whether or not civil and/or constitutional rights were violated in the months leading up to and after the 2016 presidential election (and any political and/or legal fallout that may occur), will only add to the increased odds of chaos ahead, making future events less predictable. (more…)