Daily Archives: February 12, 2018

Equity “Volatility Gauges”

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As mentioned in my 2018 Market Forecast, I think that volatility will remain elevated for much of 2018 (although to what extent will, no doubt, vary) in this evolving environment where Central Bankers are tightening monetary stimulus measures they deployed after the 2008/09 financial crisis.

As I posted in early February, near-term major support on the SPX lies somewhere in between 2525 and 2485. The upper edge of that zone was almost hit on Friday as it reached 2532, before snapping back to close the day higher.

The following daily comparison chart shows that 10-YR rates have held near their recent highs during the recent correction of the SPX. Whether rates continue to hold or push higher on any recovery in equities, and whether that may materially impact the extent of such a recovery, remains to be seen. As long as 10-YRT remains above, firstly, 2.67% and, ultimately, 2.5%, then equities will remain vulnerable to more wild swings and weakness. (more…)

Just Another Rally ……… Probably

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I’m preparing a post putting a strong technical argument that the bull market from the 2009 low is not finished, and having a look at where SPX is likely to be within the structure of that bull market. The post may not be out until after the close tomorrow, but the video segment will be posted on our YouTube channel and I’ll be posting the link to that video on my twitter later today.

For today this is a nice rally from Friday’s low. Not expecting that to be the retracement low but there are fixed hourly RSI 14 buy signals that are not close to target and my lean would be that there is at least some more upside coming. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)

Maximum Lift?

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I am still holding off going hog-wild with shorting. There’s too much “healing and recovery” that needs to take place. All the same, I think it’s going to exhaust itself relatively soon. Friday and today have helped, but roughly speaking, I don’t think the Dow is not going to get past 25,000.  Then the fun begins anew.

bounce

US, European & Chinese Financial ETFs Weaken

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The following daily ratio charts show the performance of three Financial ETFs with their respective country/union’s Major Index, namely, XLF:SPXEUFN:STOX50, and GXC:SSEC.

Each of them has weakened compared with their counterpart index during the volatility spike that occurred in world markets over the past couple of weeks. These ratios had either reached or broken above some sort of resistance level and are now above near-term support.

If we see the RSI decline below the 50.00 level, this could be a warning signal that their indices may weaken more than is currently anticipated. (more…)

Two-Way Timmay

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Well, I couldn’t be more pleased with the markets this morning. As I made abundantly clear on Friday, and through the weekend, I had greatly lightened up on shorts and went long (in a big way) select ETFs to take advantage of a bounce. Well, the bounce is on, with the ES up about 30 and the NQ up about 70 as I am typing this.

Looking at ZH over the weekend, they kept pouring out stories about how the collapse would simply continue. But we know better – – Gartman is firmly on our side, as of Friday morning, and that’s all we really need. (more…)