In my 2018 Market Forecast post I had identified important major support levels with respect to the Volatility/Index ratios of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Indices as follows:
- SPX:VIX Ratio — 200
- NDX:VXN Ratio — 350
- RUT:RVX Ratio — 80
Since that date, these indices corrected by around 10% and their corresponding volatility ratios have produced a bearish moving average Death Cross formation on the daily timeframe, as price plunged below those major support levels.
The following is an excerpt from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 488. For NFTRH bonds are not just an asset class ‘throw-in’ but instead are a key indicator set to the entire modern macro. Insofar as it may be time to use them for portfolio balance (I am currently long SHV, SHY, IEI & IEF), so much the better. Many could not wait to buy bonds during US ZIRP global NIRP operations, but today they pay better interest and have a contrarian edge with the entire herd bracing for a bear market.
We claimed appropriately bearish on bonds on December 4th, so you know this is not perma-book talking when we go the other way as yields hit our targets. (more…)
SPX and RUT both broke with confidence over their daily middle bands on Friday and such a break is a two day process. Bears get a potential ‘Get Out Of Jail Free’ card the next day if they can deliver a rejection candle that closes back below the middle band, and bulls need to deliver a second close over the middle band to confirm the break up. With SPX at 2773 at the time of writing and the middle band at 2721 and, with an hour of the trading day remaining, I am fairly confident that there is going to be no rejection candle today. This opens higher targets including possible all time high retests on both SPX and RUT. NDX is already close to an ATH retest, which now looks likely. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)
I would give away body parts if the entire equity market could be as consistently weak as General Electric. This poor dog falls almost every day. If you had bought GE twenty years ago and held on tight to this day, you would have made……….including dividends…….nothing. I can only imagine how many people have tried “buying on weakness” for the past year.
I thumbed through my ETF charts this morning and noticed a couple of interested overseas items. First off, the emerging markets makes for an interesting short idea with a clean stop-loss at 50.31 (which is just above that horizontal, anchored to the gap).
If you had asked me a week ago what I thought the probability was that we’d resume the downtrend and take out the lows of early February, I would have probably said 80%. Last week’s action (augmented by this morning’s) takes that down to more like 20%. It seems that, once again, the BTFD crowd was right. It sucks.
Oddly, the big tumble early in this month took place on pretty much no distinguishable news, and the same can be said for the recent lift. Let’s face it, the Dow has gone up thousands of points in just a couple of weeks, and no one can point to any real reason why. It’s pretty much like the “V-dip” didn’t need to take place at all (except to wipe out the unfortunates who owned XIV). (more…)