It’s here again: Trade Talk Optimism. As you know, on Friday, the Chinese delegation in Montana decided to leave early. The market freaked out. Both China and the U.S. hastily issued announcements on Saturday that, no, no, everything is just peachy, and we’re still meeting. It sounds like the big days are around October 11/12 (hence, Trump’s tariff delay until October 15th). Thus, the ES has cheered up, and it higher by about 13 as I’m sitting here this evening.
Interestingly, bonds are higher. Looking at the ZB, it wouldn’t seem so. Most folks would assumed they gapped down. However, this is misleading, since contract rollovers create this kind of phantom price plunge. Bonds are actually a little stronger, which I find encouraging.
The real standout is gold, which is just blazing higher. More and more, I’m getting the sense that those in the know have had it up to “here” with central banker insanity.
Lastly is crude oil. It had its explosive (figuratively and literally) move a week ago, and it looks like that gap is just about sealed. All the hand-wringing back $100/bbl oil was clearly – – shall we say – – misguided.