Author Archives: Tim Knight

So……

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The past twelve hours have been just bizarre. The newest little war in the mideast broke out yesterday after the close, but the ES and NQ didn’t seem to care for many hours. Crude oil, on the other hand, went absolutely ballistic, as did (later) precious metals. And yet since peaking in the wee hours of the morning, gold has been just pooing all over the place, and the the once-glorious drops in e-mini (like down over 20 points on the ES) have turned into green (just like some Slopers adroitly pointed out it would early this morning).

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Three Eye-Openers

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What a night for news! The three big items that leap out at me as I blearily start the day…….

  1. That the 28-year old co-pilot of the Germanwings flight was the one who did the deed.  Good. God. In a way, I’m relieved it wasn’t a terrorist attack or a mechanical failure, but that didn’t save any of the poor souls on board. I’ve always thought that dying in a plane crash would be an especially horrific and terrifying-beyond-belief way to die. For this man to subject nearly 200 people to this………..words fail me.
  2. The mega-surge, then just plain surge, in crude oil – I’ve got a smallish-mediumish size short in crude oil, but more importantly, I’ve got a smattering of energy shorts, so oil’s Yemen-based ascent is going to definitely tax some of my otherwise good profits this morning. The only silver lining for me is that, in CNBC style, I can say that oil is “well off the highs”, since it’s up less than half as much as it was earlier in the session.
  3. The liftoff in gold and silver: like I’ve said many times, I actually do want precious metals to perform spectacularly (for a variety of reasons), but at the moment, I’m short silver, gold, and miners – – so, again, that’s going to take a bite out of what would otherwise be what’s looking like a pretty good day on the short side.

Well, that’s it. Time to get this party started.

Risks and Opportunities

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Greetings from California Barber Shop, where for $17 you can get the best haircut in town if you are willing to wait literally two to three hours for your turn. This place is totally old school, and in spite of its popularity, the two Cambodian chaps who cut hair here move along at the same snail’s pace they always have. Paradoxically, their slowness (and care) is what keeps people like me coming back. It’s the one pampering in my life I allow myself. And it’s all of seventeen bucks.

The downside, of course, is that I’ve been here for nearly two hours, and I’m still not in the barber’s chair. So, resourceful chap that I am, I found a Dell CrapBot 9000 ghetto laptop in my trunk and am cranking out a post for my beloved Slopers. This blog does not rest.

Simply stated, I am aggressively short, with an increase in my exposure on the short side today in the precious metals and energy sectors. That may seem odd, given their strength, but I’m a contrarian, after all.

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