After the explosive eight-day surge in the markets (following the bottom last Wednesday), a whole cache of ultrashort ETF charts looks very interesting on the long side. Below are just a couple of examples, and take note how cleanly resistance has magically changed into support. Next week, particularly Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, will clarify whether these “long” positions (although actually short the market) are as profitable as they might appear.
This whole week has been a vomit comet, so it’s hard to make any generalizations about the current market, so I’ll just mention individual stocks. Besides AMZN, another nice winner for me today was Pandora. The chart was so-so, but intuitively (and this is a bit unusual for me to use anything but the chart as a rationale) I felt with all the effort Apple was putting into Internet radio, Pandora might not be in a great spot. Whatever the reason, the stock is tumbling, and I’m hanging on to the short.
Way back on August 30, I did a post called Past Fear, Present Fear, which offered up an analog of the VIX (please read it if you don’t remember; it’s a pretty good post). I would daresay it was one of the best posts I did in 2014, and things certainly unfolded as I hoped they would (although today was no fun for me). I followed up on October 9th with my Moment of Truth post, which was just before the markets started really falling hard. Thus – so far, so good. (more…)