Author Archives: Tim Knight

Sell and Hold

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Trading colleagues online are a surprisingly disloyal bunch. After Friday’s mega-reversal, the cat-calls and chortling began anew. Even BDI was declaring that the “President’s working committee” would “teach me a lesson.” So I guess I’m on my own again. The last bear standing.

I wanted to make a point beyond my own lonely role, however. I offer this chart, with some commentary beneath:



Recycled Cardboard BOX

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Even I can hardly believe what a dog BOX has become. I first wrote this snarky post about the freshly-launched IPO. Well, the price at that time (marked below with a red arrow) was terrific compared to where it is now. At this point, even in the context of a completely fake bull market and Friday’s laughable comic market reversal, the stock is down 53% from its IPO high. The path to zero is firmly in place.


Giant Parallels

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After I did my Whole Foods Bear Market post late last month, I started hunting around for other interesting parallels: that is, stocks which had topped out around 2006-2007 and then went into a complete, utter, and stunning free-fall. The additional requirement, of course, was that they be exhibiting a topping pattern as of right now. My thesis is that these are sample “canaries in the coal mine” which illustrate far better than the insanely-manipulated /ES market how unhealthy equities are.

First is Pier One, that purveyor of throw pillows, scented candles, and coconut monkey dolls:



Charts of Market DOOM

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(Note from Tim: just about the only person I’m in contact with throughout any given trading day is Northman Trader, who was kind enough to share the post below. Click on any of the images for a big version. I’d like to add that Northman tends to be much more evenly-balanced than I am, and he isn’t running around beating the bear drum constantly like me, so take that into account when reading this:)

We’ve been bullish from a trading perspective this week and it has worked out great, but we are chartists and what we are seeing is concerning. We’ve talked about structural macro charts for a while and they have teased us along the way with magic saves month after month. But since they are monthly and quarterly charts one has to recognize that the math is straightforward and its clinical results are showing one startling conclusion for bulls: Utter Doom.


All Is Vanity

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And here, my friends, I present to you some of the very worst of America: sorority girls.

Vapid. Vain. Vacuous. And always taking selfies. Just drink in some of this and comprehend the blinkered Philistine pig-ignorance that is before you. All hail duck lips! Honestly. Watch this. Take a good, long look. It’s appalling on multiple levels.

My only rejoinder, of course, comes from Star Trek (since, in spite of my boyish good looks, I am a dork at heart).


Traveling Tim Mega-Reversal

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Well, all you bears have me to thank again, since my trip to Atlanta, Georgia has caused the market to complete reverse itself. The jobs report had a little to do with it too, because here’s the situation we’re in folks:

(1) Interest rates are at zero;

(2) The Fed’s credibility equals Yellen’s likelihood of being the next cover girl of the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue;

(3) The economy is, quite evidently, beginning to poo all over itself again.

Thus, my relentless expression: “the wind is at our backs” holds sway once more.