Author Archives: Tim Knight

Amabomb

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Well, after losing money year after year after year after year, Amazon has perhaps finally worn out its welcome. I am gleefully – cheerfully – both short the stock AND long the puts, so I’ve already decided Friday is going to be a cool day. What’s particularly nice is that the stock is doing poorly in this completely retarded, helium-filled environment, so if – God forbid – the general market started to soften, Amazon could easily lose half its value. Easily.

0724-amzn

Tightening and Narrowing

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The perma-rally in the stock market is getting thinner and thinner, both in terms of breadth and daily range. Just take a look at the Dow Jones Composite; this wedge is getting ungodly tight. I realize anticipating a break has been like Waiting For Godot, but I continue to hunt down the best individual short positions, stock by stock – - – the domestic ETFs offer, in my opinion, almost no edge right now.

0724-comp

Angie’s Lost

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Earlier this year, I found out a good friend of mine had a ton of Angie’s List stock (a seriously large amount). I normally refrain from giving advice to anyone one-on-one, even friends, but I urged him to get rid of it. He reminded me of this last night, when he sent me this snippet of one of my emails I sent him last February, (obscenity politely redacted):

I actually have thought Angie’s List was a bullshit company. I wrote a scathing post about them in December. I think they’re going to be a single digit stock, perhaps even before the year is out.

Well, the market hasn’t opened yet, but I’ve marked with an arrow where the bid/ask currently is:

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The same friend wrote me this morning to shared with me this information from ANGI’s earnings release, which, ummm, kind of explains the problem:

- Marketing cost per paid membership acquisition:  $90
- First Year Renewal Rate:  74%
- Cost of a FULL-YEAR membership:  $6.99

Remember This?

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I grew up in the deep south, in a fiercely anti-union household, and I clearly remember the utterly cornball “Union Label” that appeared on television with surprising frequency. Even as I kid, I wondered why so many men were hanging out at the International Ladies Garment Workers Union. Suffice it to say, their quest for “decent wages” to “feed and kids” and “run the house” priced them right out of the market.

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