The Alcoa Analog (read about it here) was one of the cleanest trades I’ve suggested all year. It preceded a virtually uninterrupted plunge lower. I assumed that once it reached its long-term trendline, it would find support and gain strength. Nope – check out the chart below. The price fell well below the trendline, and, wouldn’t you know it, the trendline is now acting as resistance. It looks like Alcoa is going to remain quite ill.
I am struck by the similarity of almost all the indexes and ETFs I am looking out. Simply stated, the relief rally that I anticipated (exactly one day too soon, it turns out!) is raging away, and we’ve tacked 1300 points – THIRTEEN HUNDRED! – on the Dow in just a few days. The amount we may have left to go varies somewhat from index to index, but I’ve tinted below what I consider the major overhead supply zones for a variety of them. Enjoy!
I’ve been shorting again today, taking advantage of market strength. Here’s a new one:
And, voila, just three days later, the crash has been erased!
It remains beyond me while the public dives into IPOs in the throes of a bull market. Below are some of the widely-hyped public offerings over the past year or so, shown in percentage form. The results speak for themselves. And keep in mind, this was in the context of a raging bull market. Imagine what these will look like six months from now.