Author Archives: Closing Basis - go with the flow

Bollinger Breadth Follow-Up

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Hello Slopers!

You may recall my previous post after the initiation stage of the Trump Rally here which was about a week after the election.  I shared the likelihood for forward trade was in a flat to up trend, but that there was a lesser chance of a large drawdown if price did reverse.  I have a little more context to it now so I thought I might show you what I’ve found.

161201 - SPY Drawdown Potential

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US Dollar Ripple Effect

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There’s been a number of significant level breaks/hits over the past week and it seems timely for a longer-term chart review. Here come the weekly charts.

A lot of the charts coming up relate in some way to the US dollar so let’s take a look at that one first.

The USD chart has broken out strongly from a 2 year range. There’s no arguing with this breakout, the USD is going higher. Since a lot of commodity charts react to moves in the greenback, let’s take a look at some of the more popular ones.

161125 - US dollar weekly

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Bollinger Breadth

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Well, I know I’m not the only one who is glad the election is over. Truth be told, as glad as I am to see price moving around again after this summer’s lethargy, I have my fingers crossed that volatility dials it back a little from here because it’s a bit too much for me. BUT, after just one week, conditions have changed considerably so a quick review is in order.

Coming into Election Day, there was a significant amount of hedging going into the uncertainty of Nov 8th was evident by the high SKEW readings and Equity Put/Call ratios. Since then, the SKEW has returned to mid-levels and Equity Put/Call is not far behind.

161111 - SKEW reset (more…)