by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
First published Sat Jan 7 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: This past week saw a very nice move higher in the GDX and gold, but silver has seriously lagged, which does dampen any outright bullishness at this time. But, let’s review where we stand overall.
Several weeks ago, as the GDX broke down below its .618 retracement, many were throwing in the bullish towel, and everyone seemed to adopt the “clear” heads and shoulders pattern presenting on the daily chart, while pointing to target levels below the January 2016 low. But, it just seemed too obvious to me, and it seemed like the market was setting everyone up.
In November, well before we broke the .618 retracement and well before we broke the neckline of the seeming heads and shoulders pattern, I wrote the following:
In our Trading Room at Elliottwavetrader.net and in my live video sessions with our members, I have noted several times over the past weeks that the perfect bottoming set up would begin as the market recognizes a heads and shoulders pattern setting up in the GDX. And, many this past week were pointing to this “perfect” pattern, which they view as setting us up for new lows in the complex. In fact, it could be “too perfect” since the entire market seems to now be hyper-focused on how it is going to take us to lower lows.
First published Sun Jan 1 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Last weekend (Christmas weekend), I noted that set ups such as we have been seeing in the GDX usually lead to strong rallies which can see a 10% move higher quite quickly. Since then, the GDX ran 19% from its recent lows, with Thursday (Dec 29) alone seeing a 7.5% rise. Yes, these divergent set ups can provide for powerful reversal reactions. But, it does not mean we are out of the woods just yet.
In fact, silver still is quite weak, and gold has not yet convinced me either. Moreover, one does not have to make this very complicated at this point in time when one views the daily chart on the GDX. As many of you, as well as the rest of the market, have been seeing the downtrend channel we have developed in the GDX, we cannot gain escape velocity until we are able to clear that 22.50 region.
by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net
“You can fly, you can fly, you can fly” – Peter Pan
It seems that, once again, the stock market rally has taken most by surprise. Yes, the US stock market has been making new all-time highs, and everyone seems to be scratching their heads. In fact, I believe we recently even witnessed a Dow Theory confirmation of this stock market rally.
The common recent expectation was that a Trump win was going to crash the markets. In fact, when the market headed higher against a particular analysts’ expectations, he ridiculously claimed that the current equity market rally is a “manufactured rally” for the sole purpose of allowing big money to “escape the market,” only for Obama to then cause a big crash in the stock market before Trump’s inauguration in order to “hand him as big a mess as possible.” You just can’t make stuff like this up. And, amazingly, there are investors that follow this “analyst,” but clearly with a lot less money now in their pockets.
After recently hitting our 5th anniversary at Elliottwavetrader.net, and now exceeding 3000 members, I have learned quite a lot about market participants. For example, the one thing that hurts investors the most is when they lie to themselves or allow others to lie to them.
The problem is that there are so many fallacies accepted as gospel in the financial world that it causes investors to continually be looking the wrong way. And, worse yet, “analysts” without any analytical depth (or ethics) fall back upon these fallacies, which allows them to be inappropriately propagated even further throughout the market.
When I was in 5rd grade, my teacher had a sign hanging at the front of the room which said “put brain in gear before engaging mouth.” I would like to slightly modify this sound advice to fit our purposes in the financial markets: “put brain in gear before engaging pocketbook.”