Author Archives: ElliottWaveTrader

Market Thoughts And Forecast From The Legendary Robert Prechter

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In a recent interview I conducted with the legendary market technician Robert Prechter, he offered some very interesting insights into how he views today’s market, along with his perspective on socionomics. He also provides us with a general forecast as to how he sees the market playing out in the coming decade.

1. How did you come across Elliott wave analysis?

My dad subscribed to Richard Russell’s Dow Theory Letters, and he would occasionally forward his copies to me. In 1968, Russell began writing about A.J. Frost’s Elliott wave work. He published wave interpretations for the Dow off and on through late 1974, when he called the end of the bear market. During that time, I began charting gold and gold stocks, labeling the waves. After I became a professional technician at Merrill Lynch in 1975, I went on a search for Elliott’s original books, which were published in ring binders. The Library of Congress didn’t have them. Finally, I found copies on microfilm in the New York Public Library. It was a thrill coming across those listings on library cards. In 1980, I republished Elliott’s original books and articles in what is now called R.N. Elliott’s Masterworks. Later I published all of Bolton’s, Frost’s and Russell’s Elliott wave writings along with bios and notes. In case you know any Elliott wave fanatics who want these books, my staff set up a discount page good through May here.

2a. This question is simply asking for your perspective on how markets have changed – if at all – over the decades in which you have been analyzing Elliott waves. (more…)

The Complex is NOT in Alignment Yet

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published Sat Apr 15 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net:  With the break-out over the prior week’s high, we now have structures in gold and silver off the March lows which can be considered strongly impulsive.  And, as I have noted many times in the past, if there is a reasonable bullish interpretation to be seen in the metals complex, I will certainly be adopting that as my primary perspective.

However, while GLD and silver can be counted as just completing their 5 wave structures, I want to warn anyone who is going to attempt to trade downside that we are setting up in the heart of a 3rdwave.  That being the case, there is potential for the market to continue to melt up in the heart of that 3rd wave, which is actually the position we see in the GDX currently.

Silver seems to be chart that is most suggestive of needing a pullback in a wave 2.  We just barely held support last week in a 4th wave, and made a higher high in this past week’s action, which has now given us 5 waves up off the March lows.  That strongly suggests that silver “should” see a pullback, which I am counting as a wave 2.

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Beware Of Delusional Market Timers

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Preface from Tim: Below is an item contributed from Avi, which obviously is in sharp contrast to my own point-of-view. I’m glad he wrote this, though, because it saved me some time in doing a post I was going to construct called “Elliott Wave’s Last Chance”. I will summarize what the post was supposed to be about………

Our friends in Gainesville were hyper-bearish from 2009 until sometime last year. Back in 2009, they stated that the S&P might claw its way back to 1000 or so, but then it was going to be plunging back beneath the 666 low. As most of you realize, this never happened. Year after year, though, the crash was always around the corner.

At some point – – I’m not sure when, but I think within the past year or so – – they massively changed their tune (and their wave count). Their current position is that LIFETIME highs are still forthcoming, pushing even past what we saw earlier this year. Avi seems to agree.

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It May Take More Time For A True Breakout in Metals

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

First published on Saturday April 8 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net   I have read in many places on the Internet that the metals have certainly broken out.  But, as you know, I am not quite convinced.  Now, that does not mean I am bearish.  It just means I still think there could be more downside seen before a true break out is seen.

As I have been noting for the last few weeks, silver has been providing us with the clearest of the patterns.  And, last week, I noted that, under both patterns, silver still looks like it needs one more push higher before it is going to make its decision.  This past week, we got our push higher to complete what is best counted as a 3rd wave off the March lows.  But, as we know, 3 waves up does not constitute a bullish trend.  Rather, we need 5 waves up to complete.

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Please Don’t Shoot The Messenger

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By Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

In many of my articles, I have been attempting to enlighten those with open minds as to the true nature of the stock market. While most market participants have been trained to believe that the market is mechanically driven by exogenous causation, I have been providing historical and recent examples of why this simply is a market fallacy.

We have had some resounding real world examples over the last two years to poke some significant holes into the mechanical exogenous causation perspective. Remember back to the Charlie Hebdo attack in France, the Fed rate hike in December of 2015, the certain “crash” calls in February 2016, Brexit, Trump, the Fed rate hike in December 2016, etc. We have experienced many news “shocks” which were supposed to cause serious damage to the market over the last several years. Yet, the market was still able to provide us with a 600 point rally up to 2400SPX from February of last year, and this is all AFTER the Fed stopped QE.

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Do Stock Market Fundamentals Matter Yet – Or Ever?

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by Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

The market has finally followed through on the pullback we were expecting to the 2335SPX region from 2400SPX, as we have outlined. The structure of the market over the coming week will likely tell us when the next 200-point rally to 2500SPX takes hold.

This past week, I read an article by a writer that has been decidedly bearish the stock market for quite some time. In his latest missive, he reiterated his position that the stock market is disconnected from the fundamentals of real world dynamics. And, then I read another article stating outright that this market is dangerously overpriced.

They seem to be no different than most analysts today claiming that the market is not being driven by fundamentals at this time. And, yes, I simply love that statement. It just makes me chuckle every time I hear it. It is no different than saying that the steering wheel is not driving a remote-control car. Well, of course it isn’t. It never has.

As Jeff Miller appropriately summed it up in his recent update:  “Most pundits, media, “smart money,” experts on valuation have been completely wrong for many years.”

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Don’t Feed the Bears

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by Avi Gilburt

In a recent update, I pointed towards the 2,335 SPX region as the next likely target in the market. This week, the market has finally obliged, and taken us to our next waypoint.

As I have been noting for several weeks, the market has been much more bearish than I had expected with only a slight drop off the all-time highs. Moreover, my ideal expectations had us dropping even lower towards the 2,335 SPX region before setting up another rally attempt.

But, the fact that the market has become so bearish of late, even though we have not dropped much off the highs, tells me that the market may only be setting up the bears for a whipsaw they may not soon forget.

When I look across the web and read what many are “feeling” right now, most seem to still believe the market has gone farther than it should. Many are now calling this the end to the “Trump Rally.” Many even believe that the market has hit its high for 2017. Week after week, we see one top caller after another coming out with reason after reason as to why the market is just “too high.” The market has supposedly so far surpassed its fundamental valuation that many are absolutely convinced we have seen a blow-off top.

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