Author Archives: Jack Damn

Charts From The Comments (Friday)

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A quick round-up of various charts posted to the comment section of SOH on Friday. Enjoy and discuss.

Hugo Figuyr posted:

I posted this chart last night…but it was a bit different…Spring
Jack mentioned "Very striking resemblance between the 66 – 82 period and
now, but you'd expect that to an extent as that was a secular bear
market following a major leverage-fueled market top"

The
question is..Are we running out of fuel?

Spx

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jayinasia posted:

TAZ was looking for a WAG. I know he'd rather have Tim's but here's one
for posterity.

Spx

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jesterx posted:

I have been long the Aussie $ Dollar since about the 0.83 level. I have
raised my stop on this bad boy and locked in some profits, but when I
took a closer look at the chart today I noticed something very
interesting!!!! Take a peek at the AUD chart below.

Aud

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elliott_surfs posted:

What is going on in me mind.

Es

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brentos posted:

Holding GDX calls into Monday. I'm seeing an IH&S – got in near the
bottom of the up-trending channel waiting to see if it holds – will take
some off at 51.54 and wait for target area on chart for 2nd half. Have a good weekend everyone.

Gdx

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=^.^=

Chart From The Comments (Thursday)

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Yet another round-up of a few salient charts that were posted to the comment section of SOH today. Enjoy and discuss.

redvetttes posted: "Q's on the bottom trend line again." (link to his chart)

springheel_jack posted:

Natural Gas disappoints the bulls as ever:

NatGas

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Tarhini_Trade posted:

Gooooooood morning ladies and gentlemen…this is your captain speaking.
Please go ahead and check your maps on the screen in front of you.

Dia

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auger posted three charts covering GLD (here), SLV (here) and GDX (below):

GDX pennant forming:

Gdx

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facesincabs posted:

Here is an observation I made last night using the $INDU

Considering
this $INDU chart, the key here for bulls is valid follow through. BTW,
I have not even looked at the markets yet today, but a quick glance
tells me that the NASDAQ is showing relative weakness to the other major
indexes (e.g., yesterday it briefly diverged from this recent trend).

Dow

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St. Deluise posted:

Doing some fib extrapolation (green fibs), i am thinking the top of this
rally will be around 1099 (~1003 SPX) based on how well that jives with
current price action, around July 19th using fib time series as well
(which also predict a ST high tomorrow (1079) and a ST bottom (1067) on
the 13th.

This is mostly a goof but for the record using the
same methods i did manage to predict a low of 996 which is about as good
as you're going to get from the likes of me.

Es

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=^.^=

Charts From The Comments (Monday)

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A few charts from the excellent chartists that contribute to SOH's comment section.

springheel_jack posted two looks at the EURUSD (here and here) along with this GBPUSD chart:

My personal favorite though, the GBPUSD rising channel. I've taken 425
pips out of this since last Thursday and I'm hoping to double that by
the end of this week:

GBPUSD

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jesterx posted:

I was staring at the market today and trying to make sense of it, but
with this holiday here, sometimes the market can play up a bit. I will
not be trading today, but I found something with the RUSSELL 2000. Chart
below for those interested.

Jesterx

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morrise posted a round-up of the VIX including a Point & Figure, Weekly and this Daily:

We are a good deal oversold which often precipitates counter rallies. (link to spreadsheet) How about volatility with the VIX?

Vix

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morrise also posted a great break down of his thoughts on the SPX. Along with the daily chart below, he posted a 3-box reversal Point & Figure chart, a Weekly look and a look at the S&P500 Bullish Percent Chart. He also looked at a couple Moving Average studies on the NYSE Comp. (NYA).

Spx

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facesincabs posted:

fwiw … China was the first world market to resume its bear market
(noted by its 20% decline off highs several weeks ago) … in the last
two years it appears to bottom and top ahead of the domestic markets …

SSEC

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facesincabs also breaks down the Russell ($RUT) with three charts including this weekly look:

Weakness abounds in small cap's after the last week …

Rut_week

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That's it for now. Thanks to all the people posting charts in the comment sections. I'll leave you with this potential long term Head & Shoulders pattern on the Monthly DOW chart. The right shoulder needs work so tell your friends to sell and sell often.

Dow_monthly_hs

=^.^=

Chart From The Comments (Weekend Edition)

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Just in case you missed these, here is a quick look at a selection of charts posted in the SOH comment section over the weekend. I cut this post off Sunday afternoon only because it had become a tad long.

osbournecox posted:

We just kissed that ES upper channel line. Really weak close but all of the big boys were absent so it might be
dangerous to read too much into it.

Personally, I'm happy to be
flat, having taken some nice profits. If we crash on Tuesday, then I
miss out. But I still have a hunch that we get a relief rally.

OsbourneCox

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TheKing posted:

I'm watching MBFI. I'm looking for either a break below support or a
right shoulder, then break

TheKing

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Also:

I'm shorting XME on a break of 43. Not quite a double top, but close
enough. Looking for a target south of 30.

TheKing_2

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Hugo Figuyr posted:

I've noticed something over the years that I would like to toss at
y'all. Many times a higher high, followed by a lower low, acts as a
bounce. I've attached a simple chart to attempt to demonstrate this
idea. It shows the recent HS pattern, so we could end up breaking down
through the support. Classic charting technique requires three points
for a trend line to have any validity. I'm using a line chart here, as
it seems to work best to show y'all what I'm trying to express.

Hugo

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redvettes notes that the "13/34 weekly cross pretty much there" (link to his chart)

C C Rider pointed out a Double Top pattern on Amazon's weekly chart:

AMZN double top, target 90

Rider

Ricco posted:

SH (non leveraged short of the SP500) is looking good

Ricco

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tnrevolution posted:

I'm sure this has already been discussed,
but the McCLellan Oscillator is sporting a powerful positive
divergence…. If we don't resume falling off a cliff on Tuesday, then
the Revolution is eying adding some ERX to the positions I opened up on
Thur/Fri. Blasphemous as it may be, I'm continuing to believe a month
long bounce may be in the works here.

Tnrov

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Charts From The Comments (Friday Morning)

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Charts from the comments the Friday edition.

springheel_jack posted:

Very interesting chart of the oil sept futures for anyone interested.

I'd
drawn in the lower trendline yesterday morning but didn't post or trade
it because I was doubtful about oil dropping that low, but there were
some big moves yesterday & the lower trendline was hit.

If
the pattern holds for a while then we'll see oil drop a lot lower with
some really wild recoveries.

Spring_jack_01_oil

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Also:

I haven't been charting the 10yr really, but here's my take on 30yr
treasuries:

Spring_jack_02_treasur

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Yazzer posted:

Summation Index getting truncated back downward – this was the thing I
was most afraid of before this last downdraft – it fizzled badly
though…the emperor has no clothes?

Yazzer_01

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facesincabs posted:

Banking rolling over …

Facesincab

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Also:

Here's another area I am watching to initiate another down leg …

Facesincab_iyr

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redvetttes has been stalking (COST). Here's a link to his chart.

Charts From Thursday Comments (Jack Damn)

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There are a lot of great charts floating around in the comment
section that you may have missed because you were busy trading or maybe there was an avalanche of comments as the market was crashing or you were merely away looking at bacon market news.

Whatever the case I thought I'd grab a few charts from the SOH comment section. This first post is a bit of an experiment and as such, this isn't nearly a complete "round up" of charts from everyone. I hand picked a few examples to kick the idea off.

► jesterx posted:

Do we have a holiday reversal on our hands. Hmmmmm. Or will the job
numbers haunt too many and send us down the crap hole again. Here is my
homework for those interested.

Jesterx_01_sp_daily

S&P Daily (click for bigger)

Jesterx_02_sp_intra

S&P Intra-day (click for bigger)

► morrise posted a nice look of the NYSE Comp (NYA) with commentary on the chart:

Morrise_nya_01

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► ContraTrader posted a look at Goldcorp (GG):

I think Tim is playing GDX for a short term bounce place. I got into a
miner today as well.. GG.. I will probably play it up till about
42.50 and short it there on the retest of the broken wedge formation
with a stop above the 50DMA.. check it out.

GG

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► redvetttes posted a nice technical look at the IWM. It's a bit too large from me to grab, but it's right here.

auger posted:

Anybody consider that there's an inverted Cup and Handle on $SPX, rather
than a H&S? Target is 975-ish.

Auger

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Two Bears For Monday (by Jack Damn)

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MayaWhile I realize most traders are looking for the broad market to rise over the next two weeks into the July 4th holiday due to end of the month and end of the quarter mark-up, I'm still on the hunt for possible short set-ups in case the up move doesn't materialize.

What I'm looking for are stocks that fund managers might dump to make their books appear fluffier. Since GDP numbers missed expectation it might be possible to find stocks tied to the consumer or economic expansion that fund managers spuriously ran up off the March '09 lows and look ripe for profit taking (see Family Dollar below).

And I always keep an eye out for stocks that suffer from a down side event (such as a downgrade or missed earnings) … which is what my first potential short, Edwards Lifesciences (EW), looks like:

Bear_01_EW

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This appears to me to be a classic Alan Farley "Hole in the wall" swing trade. The event that triggered the initial sell off was a Goldman downgrade and after two days of catching its breath, it may be ready to continue down.

The swing trade is to get in under the most recent low with a stop in place in case you trigger in, but dip buyers push it back up. In this example I used the value of a single 10-period ATR as a stop, but any stop that fits your style is applicable. The plan is to roll the stop down daily until stopped out or you hit a profit target (if desired).

Bear_02_FDO

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Family Dollar Stores (FDO) has had a nice run up, but may be ready for a retest of its previous lows as bulls look to lock in end of the month/quarter profits. For this trade I'm using Dr. Alexander Elder's "Impulse System" via Stockcharts.com. In his classic book "Come Into My Trading Room", Dr. Elder writes that his Impulse System is not a mechanical system and it's best not to automatically trade red or green bars without some other pattern or trend confirmation.

In other words, try to trade good looking charts in the desired direction.

In this case the short signal (red bar) appears to be breaking down out of a potential triangle pattern on pretty decent volume (though not stellar) after it filled the most recent gap. Short term trend appears to be breaking down and if there is further follow through, it might make an excellent swing trade.

Trading rules.

A sell signal occurs when the long-term trend is deemed bearish and the
Elder Impulse System turns bearish on the intermediate term trend. For
example, the weekly chart shows a clear downtrend and this means only
sell signals are heeded on the daily chart. Buy signals are ignored.
Elder suggests exiting when one of the two indicators turns up, either
the 13-day EMA or the MACD-Histogram. – Elder Impulse System, Stockcharts.com

Which means we cover if a blue bar prints. Blue painted bars represent system indecision and as such, it's time to exit. As an added bit to Elder's original rules, my own recent testing of this system shows the best profits occur in a three to five day window (with an exit at the end of the fifth day).

Depending out how the futures look Monday morning, I will be entering a short on (FDO) and monitoring (EW) for a possible entry. If the futures are screaming higher, then the trades goes on the watch list for the week.

Good luck and good trading.

~Jack Damn