Author Archives: NFTRH

Man, That’s Cheesy…

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By Biiwii

After the now-famous WSJ post, it seemed as if a bottom had just been called in gold…

Let’s Be Honest About Gold: It’s a Pet Rock

It seemed that the elements were in place for a contrarian rally if not bull market bottom. Along with negative gold items routinely appearing in the financial media and a Commitment of Traders structure that had become very bullish, gold sentiment was bleak by indicators we track in NFTRH.

My how a 6% rally with an accompanying stock market down spike have changed things…

sinclair, gold sentiment still not ready

Click for the video @ YouTube

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Microcosm Expanding

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macrocosm

NFTRH 353 introduced the idea of a Macrocosm, a planetary representation of elements that need to come into place for a real investment stance on the gold stock sector (as opposed to the imagined elements cooked up by perma-bulls over the last few years). The Macrocosm idea came to me when the gold sector was acting firmly counter-cyclical on a day that most other markets were suffering. Then it happened again.

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US Stock Market Mini Update

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Reviewing the US stock market picture from a few different angles…

NFTRH been using the Equity Put/Call ratio to gauge pressure on the US stock market for all of 2015. Many people think that anxiety indicators like this and the VIX are contrary indicators (i.e. when they spike you buy the fear in the markets, which often does work well) but when smoothing out CPCE using a moving average (weekly EMA 20 in this case) you get a trend.

The market benefited over long stretches from the calm atmosphere and the down trend in put buying vs. call buying. One explanation is that the market felt safe in mommy and daddy’s arms (Bernanke and Yellen, amidst ‘peak confidence’ in the Fed with a side of Goldilocks).

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Peak Oil? Peak Stocks?

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By Biiwii

Are Stocks the Next Oil (or Uranium, Copper, Silver)?

See: Oil collapse couldn’t come at a worse time for industry

See: 2007, when everyone was convinced of ‘Peak Oil’ and there were websites named ‘Peak Oil’, ‘Oil Drum’, etc. constantly reinforcing the mania.

I remember being away on business one day in 2007, with nothing better to do in my hotel room than watch the congressional debates about ‘peak oil’ and what to do about the evil speculators that were driving prices up. I enjoy watching a good mania as much as the next guy. I realized that what we were seeing was ‘Peak Hysteria’ with respect to this phenomenon. I thought, ‘Yup, Prechter’s right’.

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Is Japan’s Inflation Failing?

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By Biiwii

We begin with NFTRH.com’s post from July 16 noting the message I got from a former associate (from my previous life as a manufacturer)…

“Just an update for you, some disturbing news has leaked out this week. Machine tool builders have put out blow out [lists] to all sales persons in the USA, not sure if world wide. Mori Seiki list has 600 to 700 machines on it WOW!!! never have i heard of such a huge list by any one Builder. Not sure what they see coming but it can’t be good.”

My comment from that post: “Mori is a big builder and when the big builders start blowing out it goes right down the food chain.”

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More Ritholtz on Gold, and Another Response

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By Biiwii

Anyone who has been bearish on gold for the last 4 years has been right. They have been right in Euros and though the trend appears to have been gently changing over the last year or two, they have been right in Canada & Aussie (i.e. commodity currencies) dollars as well. Certainly, they have been right that gold as measured in most global stock markets has been (and remains) bearish.

They have also been right in that gold as a hedge against the kind of inflation that global policy makers have promoted non-stop for years now, has utterly failed. And for gold as an insurance and value asset, a small phase like 4 years is like a blip. Yet still, so many people throw their hats into the ring on gold, constantly micro-managing its every twist and turn.

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