Author Archives: NFTRH

Ritholtz on Gold

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By Biiwii

I linked Barry Ritholtz’s gold bug swipe along with other items in an Around the Web post. Anything linked (or republished from guests for that matter) on this site is to be taken as 100% their view, not mine. You, the reader are tasked with using your own brain to consider, discount or ignore any of it as you see fit.

What do I think of Ritholtz’s view on gold, personally? I think ole’ Barry is picking some easy, low hanging fruit to use up virtual ink over at Bloomberg, per his contract (real or implied). I mean really, gold did not react to Greece and he takes that as a negative for the metal?

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Hype in the “Community” is Always Punished

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By Biiwii

IKN has been pointing out the stupidity of some Apple Watch gold consumption hype and most recently, the non-flight to quality amidst Greece blah blah blah… He is at least as sensitive as I am to this stuff. More so, maybe.

While I have personally tried to tone down the criticism of the cartoons in the gold “community”, I find it difficult with one writer in particular leading the naive into the GDX (with its “drop dead gorgeous bull wedge”), into the Indian Wedding and China demand stories and as a topping on the cartoonish cake, the ‘US jobs will drive inflation so make like the smart money and BUY GOLD before the big institutions do!’ garbage.

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USD; Daily, Weekly, Monthly & Conclusions

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USD has been in correction since the hysterical March top. The daily chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows that was interrupted last week when USD failed to make a lower low, Hammered and bounced… right to the EMA and SMA 50’s.

So we remain on watch for a) a higher high or b) a lower low. It’s very simple. As it stands, the near-term is bearish until it proves bullish, not the other way around. That is because the existing trend is down (AROON, bottom Panel).

usd

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Gold’s Ratio Signals

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A brief snapshot of counter-cyclical gold’s macro signals vs. other metals (and broad commodities) that are more positively correlated to economies, using weekly charts…

Each week NFTRH updates many charts of nominal US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals and currencies over multiple time frames. But we also cover economic data and indicators, with the first macro chart below (Palladium vs. Gold) still barely holding its economic ‘UP’ signal from January, 2013. At that time a coming economic up phase did not seem likely, but PALL-Gold and fundamental information gleaned from a personal source in the Semiconductor Equipment sector gave us a good risk vs. reward on that stance.

While it can be argued that using an indicator like Palladium (positive economic correlation) to Gold (counter cyclical) is subject to the discrete supply/demand fundamentals of the two assets, it has worked to signal up and down economic phases, with the most recent shown in Q1 2013 (green arrow). This indicator has been whipsawing since topping out a year ago and the moving averages are near a trigger point.

pall.gold

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Is Gold Hated Enough?

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By Biiwii

goldAn article by Mark Hulbert jogged the title’s question into my mind:

This Bear Market in Gold Still Has too Many Bulls

With respect to the reasons for owning gold, I never flinch when taking a long-term value perspective. In the monetary and financial world gold is insurance and insurance is something you buy, but hope to never need. The value of insurance is in one of its definitions: “a thing providing protection against a possible eventuality”.

It is good news that this ‘thing’ has not been needed as modern policy making has worked to mostly desired effects, as asset markets have been pumped by inflationary policies that have not (yet) had a commensurate level of risk discovery.

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Banks, Gold & Yields

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[edit] the post started as a simple thing and ended after getting way too involved. so much the better…

An update of the situation on the Banks, the anti-Banks (gold) and the yield relationships that would help define their fates.

The Bank index is breaking through resistance this week while gold remains in Palookaville. Note to certain bloggers out there who would nitpick: the arrows are not meant to line up (green to red); they are meant to show support and resistance for the Banks’ lows and Gold’s highs, respectively.

bkx.gold

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