Author Archives: NFTRH

The Current Message of Yield Curves: Inflation or Deflation?

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With the state of post-Op/Twist systemic dysfunction, there are no absolutes, but…

Generally, a rising yield curve (after years of Goldilocks and her favored declining curve) would signal changes in financial markets.  But it is not as simple as stating ‘the curve is rising… it’s bearish!’ or ‘the curve is rising… it’s bullish!’.  It is potentially both of those things and it will have different implications for different markets and asset classes.

First, here is the state of yields and the yield curve currently, on the big picture view.  Trends are down in the deflationary continuum on the biggest picture for all items, but have been neutral on the 5yr and somewhat up on the 2yr ever since Goldilocks gulped the bears’ porridge in 2013.  The yield curve is in a downtrend.

us treasury yields and yield curve


Market Internals; Prelude to a Crash? Part 2

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The following is an excerpt from the Market Sentiment & Internals segment of the October 16 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 417, which also included technical analysis of US and global stock markets, precious metals, commodities and currencies and macro/market indicator analysis for an overall cohesive view on markets (which still appear in process to the favored plan of an inflationary phase after the expected market disturbance currently ongoing, plays out).

Up Volume has been draining and market breadth has been fading (ref. NYSE Advance/Decline page 10). This is a far cry from the Breadth Thrust we noted in the summer (thank you again to subscriber LN). Per LN’s analysis, the implication was for a temporary rally then further evaluation with the potential for some very bearish activity similar to 1987 (ref. Breadth Thrust: Prelude to a Crash? posted on July 12).


The Gold Manipulators Not Only Will Be Punished, They Have Been Punished

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I have not gone off the deep end and joined the “community” of boosters, promoters, pompom waving cheering squads and general cult figures who you can just tell not only want you to adore gold, but in some cases need you to act on your adoration and buy gold or gold stocks.  Read into that what you will, but the history of investors burned by the pitch, which tugs at peoples’ morals, sense of right and wrong and plain old common sense, is a long and storied one.

As in any market, you are the mark, the target, the food… unless you do the educational work to the degree required in order to have your own – not some expert’s – view on things.  That includes we would-be geniuses who think we can write for you and provide worthwhile information along the way in your decision making process.  The day I stop learning and working to be better is the day I stop doing this, and that’ll be the day they fit me for a pine box.


US Stock Market, Big Picture View

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Because perspective is everything, let’s once again get some big picture perspective…

S&P 500 is outside the lower fork line (again the Fork being a novelty, but the line being real) but above critical support.  Bears would call this an overthrow to the upside and massive bull trap.  We can call it an intact bull market above support and a very bearish market should that support be lost.

spx monthly chart


Some Highly Technical Analysis For You

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Listen you bloated, levitating sideways going Pig, will you please either break above that red line and the post-FOMC euphoria highs of 9/22 or drop to or through the lower blue wedge line?  You know you are going to do one of those two things soon enough and we’d all just as soon get on with it.  Thank you.

spx daily chart

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 30-45 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at and Also, you can follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS. (more…)

Charts Worth Watching

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Just a few of the many charts I am trying to keep an eye on (and yeah, my head is spinning… but in a good way).

First, here is my friend Huey; HUI tickled the top of the longstanding downside target today.  It is now time for gold stock aficionados to be on alert.  The ones who were ready for this as buyers, at least.  Assuming the fundamentals are at least somewhat in order (there has been some short-term damage in that area) the downside would seem to be limited to the April gap, down around 180.  Regardless, technical risk is much reduced now and I bought a couple bombed out, but quality items items today.  No hurry; bounces notwithstanding, this may not be as quick a process as some may hope.

hui daily chart


Read and Listen to the Media, be a Day Late, Lot of Dollars Short

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Seriously, the longer I do this more intolerant I become with the whole financial media/services/advice complex.  Stoopid MSM headlines this morning…

Dollar holds gains as investors set their watches for jobs data (ooh, the tension mounts)

Markets counting down to big Jobs Friday (T-minus… to BIG Jobs)

Gold loses shine as Fed feelings lift dollar (blah blah blah…)

European stocks hemmed in with ECB minutes on deck (of course, there has to be a reason they’d be little changed; this one’s as good as any)

This is why the Stock Market’s complacency is about to end (tell me genius, do tell… )

Dow, S&P 500, bonds trade like a Fed rate hike isn’t cause to stress out (because it isn’t, Captain Obvious)

And that is just the MSM; factor in the opinion and propaganda from the blogosphere and the gold bug cult “community” and it’s no wonder people get confused.  I get email from very decent and intelligent people asking what I think is going on, what is going to happen.  It is obvious that the disparity of opinions (much of it stated confidently as virtual fact) flying around out there has people flummoxed (hey, that’s a word I’ve never written before, ever in my life).

But there is no ‘IS’.  There are only probabilities.  A good bit of the crap in the MSM and from the lesser lights in the blogging ecosystem speaks in definite terms because it is either trying to get eyeballs or it is pitching its dogma to its own gain.  On any given day it seems like a majority of the financial complex is hanging an ad in its window saying “come consume what I have to offer!  I’m right and here’s why…” and then the story changes for the MSM as it simply hangs new ads in its window the next day; and as for the lesser touts?

Why, they simply start reporting the news, as in… Thought bubble:  ‘Shit, I was wrong big time to be touting that trend even after it ended, but I need to figure out a spin…’ Stated publicly:  “Gold and Silver are in a correction and support looks to be in the…”

So tomorrow is “big Jobs” Friday.  Whoop de doo!  The Semiconductor Equipment sector gave its signal so many months ago.  Some people fought me on this, either knowingly (you know who you are) or from an expert’s perch, unknowingly.  Also, Brexit did not end the world, Europe is talking about tapering QE and things have held up just fine.

Now it’s “big Jobs” week.  The ultimate lagging data point will be reported tomorrow and if it goes over 200K (experts are forecasting 169k) there will be a cacophonous uproar.  But we will not be surprised because we had early, forward looking data months ago (which has already manifested in a big jobs recovery over the last few months).

I guess all I am saying is will you please tune down the cacophony?  It is unhealthy.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 30-45 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at and Also, you can follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits or RSS.