Author Archives: NFTRH

Draghi Speaks the Truth

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Draghi Speaks the Truth; ECB Will ‘Do What it Must’

Words are important. This is not just a headline, it is a reality…

Draghi says ECB will ‘do what it must’ on asset buying to lift inflation

Not ‘do what it thinks would be the best course for the European economy’, not ‘choose the path of least resistance in guiding the financial system to recovery’… the ECB will DO WHAT IT MUST.

As I have written til I’m blue in the face for the last 10 years, we are in the age of ‘Inflation onDemand‘©, 24/7 and 365. “…do what it must”… let that sink in for a moment.

Japan is trying to kill the Yen, China is dropping interest rates and the world over we have a rolling inflationary operation that is little more than a game of Whack-a-Mole. BoJ popped up a couple weeks ago and now this one… (more…)

Contrary Indicator

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I hesitated to post this because it puts an actual person up for ridicule, as opposed to the usual stuff I write about the “gold generals” or ‘stock market touts and trend followers’, etc. A reader sent along an email containing this link (and its very bearish current view of gold) and the video below.

Daniela (Aug. 24, 2011): “…this [Fed’s Op/Twist.] would create a bullish gold scenario?”

Puru: “Absolutely…”

also… “on the cusp of a massive uptrend in gold…” (more…)

Goldzilla

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goldzilla“History shows again and again how nature points out the folly of man” –Blue Oyster Cult, Godzilla

I would have written off the gold sector long ago in its ongoing bear market had I thought for one moment that gold’s utility as insurance against the acts of monetary madmen/women in high places had been compromised in any way. On the contrary, the monetary metal is simply having its price marked down in a bear market while its value, especially given its current price and all that has gone on in the financial system over the last 3 years remains just fine.

Indeed gold, an element dug out of the ground for centuries, once as money and now as a marker to sound money systems will one day be shown to be a calm oasis from the fallout to global monetary shenanigans currently ongoing. At least it would be an oasis to those who have valued it as such. It is going to feel like a giant dinosaur (minus the kitsch value) ripping through a city built on paper to the multitudes who have taken the bait on the current too big to fail global inflationary operations. They will fail. Timing is the only question. (more…)

Gold Sector Review

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Below is a summary of some of the aspects we follow in NFTRH to gauge a future investment stance on the gold sector. It is much more complex than simply hearing dogma that seems to make sense and then holding on for dear life…

Inflation

The hype is dying. 10 years of inflation hysterics have gone down the drain even as global policy makers pull out inflationary bazookas and use them at the slightest hint of economic trouble. The BoJ’s recent action was just the latest and most striking in its timing. Global markets were bouncing within correction mode and the Yen had just pinged a key resistance level. The BoJ then blew the Yen up with policy designed to at once reward risk takers and asset holders and mercilessly punish the Japanese people, renowned for the ethic of saving. (more…)

Negative Feedback 2; Points Proven

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A couple weeks ago I wrote a post about some negative feedback (comes with the territory, if I am doing my job well enough) because I wrote about the very real economic performance that has so far come out of what I consider unsustainable and doomed to fail policy (and would be bullish for the gold sector I might add).

So I get to have some people call me a perma bear on one side and certain dogma defenders on the opposite side, both coming down on the writer who, right or wrong, is trying to clear out the b/s and just write the truth.

Now with the Gold Bug Psychology article I unsurprisingly I got the incoming from that camp as well. Even though I am twice the gold bug some of the dogma defenders are because I am not threatened by my position and am willing to state the truth as I see it. Nobody that I know of has put in the effort I have over the last decade in trying to describe gold as a value instrument and an insurance policy… and NOT a PLAY or a GAME. (more…)

Gold Bug Psychology Must be Neutered

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The precious metals bear market, beginning with silver’s blow out in early 2011 and the general top in the commodity and ‘inflation trade’ along with gold’s lesser blow out later that summer amidst Euro crisis hysterics, has been all about psychology. Well, every bear or bull market is about psychology, but the intensity of this dynamic has been something to behold in the gold sector over these last few years.

Psych 101

In early 2011 long-term interest rates were rising in response to inflationary pressures, ‘Bond King’ Bill Gross famously shorted the long bond, virtual mobs with pitchforks were storming the Fed’s castle calling for Ben Bernanke’s head and silver went to $50 an ounce, with calls for $100, $200, etc. All psychology my friends. (more…)

Currencies & Commentary

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Excerpted from the November 2 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 315. Public readers please filter with the idea that the style of writing meshes with much of what was included in the report that preceded it and hence, maybe appear to be a little vague in some areas.

Currencies & Commentary

In light of the news from the land of the rising sun and the sinking currency, let’s reserve NFTRH 315’s only real charting for a big picture monthly view of currencies, to which we usually give just a brief update, and then some misc. big picture monthly charts [not included in this excerpt] as we try to gain perspective on things that may seem illogical to our rational minds.

xjy (more…)