Gold’s CoT data predictably improved again this week, but here I think some discussion is needed just in case it starts to get hyped too much.
Below is the CoT on an improving trend of Commercial short covering and large Speculator long reduction. Okay, that’s good. But here is the part where the hype needs to be tuned out. The CoT tends to degrade (i.e. trend in a bearish direction during gold rallies) and improve (i.e. trend in a positive direction during gold corrections). The charts of CoT and gold below are set over the same 1 year time frames…
This is only the second best Fed Hawk photo I’ve ever seen.
Last weekend, in a segment titled Gold Obsession & Ephemeral States of Mind NFTRH 330 talked about a growing presence that seems to follow Martin Armstrong’s anti ‘gold promoters’ theme. This theme seems to be – coming as it does in a gold bear market – something of a promotion itself; just as the over-the-top inflationist gold bug stuff was during the bull market.
Please understand, dear followers of Marty, I am not at all calling him a promoter. He is the originator of ideas, thoughts and analysis that while not all my cup of tea, is interesting enough that it is linked at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. But behind this mindset that is solidifying in the public consciousness, is a growing cadre of gold bugs – some of whom benefited from the notoriety lavished upon them by the likes of Mr. Gold, Jim Sinclair – that seems to be taking things over the top*, as always seems to happen with humans and in markets. Every mental elastic band seems to stretch too far.
Trying not to pre-judge the title as flat out stupid, let’s proceed to the article…
Where to park your money until the next crisis blows over
Greece is on the edge of a dramatic exit from the euro EURUSD, -0.09% . The Russians are meddling in the Ukraine again. The oil price CLH5, -0.46% has been hammered, creating an arc of instability across the Middle East. The global economy is, as is so often the case, poised on the edge of another crisis. If it happens, money will start fleeing to safe havens, somewhere where it can be safely parked to ride out the turmoil.
I have a short position against the S&P 500 and despite Friday’s EoD reversal and yesterday’s down day, as noted to subscribers in an update, I don’t feel very good about its prospects. I am net long the market, and that is for a reason; recent signals have been more bullish than bearish.
Greece? Ha ha ha… was Greece 1 bearish? How about Cyprus? How about the litany of other meltdowns around the world since? In the price obsessed casino (where patrons checked any concept of value at the door), it seems to be all bullish because even when backing out the 24/7, 365 inflationary global policy hoses we realize that over bullish sentiment keeps getting reset by these anxious events and the bull eats that for breakfast.
This segment is excerpted from this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 329, and was originally titled…
Does the US Economy and Stock Market Need Manufacturing?
The ISM PMI reports for December and January showed deceleration in line with our view that a persistently strong US dollar would begin to eat away at US manufacturing, exporters and other companies that depend on significant foreign business. But in an age where investors will bid up Twitter* (with its forward P/E of 141 and 30B market cap to 1.2B revenue) by 16% in a day, are we returning to the old days of ‘PE’s don’t matter’ with the hook or tout being ‘it’s all about ad revenue’?
It’s all about confidence, right? Right.
In 2011, when the commodity and ‘inflation’ trades blew out, the Federal Reserve was completely discredited, with gold bugs out front poking them in the eye with taunts of “Helicopter Ben”. Markets rebelled against the Fed by sending silver to $50 and commodities in general to an all-time high.
Today, we have come 180° as market participants the world over have been conditioned to revere policy made from on high. Herds being what they are, every utterance from the jawbones of these former buffoons is respected in the form of instantaneous market movement. It’s as if everyone believes the Fed is in total control.
One indicator that this confidence is coming unwound would be a breakdown in the banks. They are right at key… as in critical… as in bull market… support. Not surprisingly, gold has taken on an inverse stance to the Pigs. This should be interesting.
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