While we’re on the subject of Mr. Bullard, the opening segment from this week’s NFTRH (#335) had a little fun with the Fed. Serious multi-market and economic analysis came later, but sometimes you just need to shake your head in awe and wonder.
The Fed is important because millions of market participants believe it is important and a critical mass of people are under the illusion that its policies have put the “Great Recession” in the past and laid a path for a sustainably good economy going forward. In short, confidence in the Fed has never been more pervasive as it reaps the reward (the respect and confidence of the majority) for a job well done.
Excerpted from the March 15 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 334:
As the title suggests I want to talk more and chart a little less this week. We do so much charting and parameter management that I think we are in no danger of falling behind the curve in those areas. The same goes for the indicators and sentiment tools we use. It is all still there, available and ready for use at the drop of a hat.
As for economic data and projections, that too has been an area that in my opinion we have been on top of. Going back to the early 2013 Semiconductor ramp up right on through late 2014’s projections for European exporters due to currency dynamics, we have been on the job and things have been generally according to plans.
Ben Kramer-Miller, a fundamental gold stock analyst who I keep an eye on, recently had an article at SeekingAlpha called Gold’s Bull Run Has Not Yet Begun. I remember taking note of the title when it came out, but as is usually the case I did not have the time, nor the inclination to read it. I like to keep my own thoughts square and balanced and don’t need other peoples’ thoughts on gold clouding my own.
But as I was fooling around over at the St. Louis Fed’s website (it is recommended that geeks register for a free account) doing the following charts I remembered ‘oh jeez, I think somebody’s already on this topic’. So I checked it out and sure enough he did gold vs. the Monetary Base using a graphic from the also-recommended MacroTrends website. Anyway, preamble behind us we move on…
In light of the positive February Employment report NFTRH 333 opened up with some discussion of the details (the devil after all, is in those details)…
Employment, the Economy & Interest Rates
The February Employment report was a strong +295,000 with unemployment dropping to 5.5%. In Friday’s Market Notes update we highlighted that per BLS this was a services-driven report as the leading edge of the economy, the smaller but key manufacturing and industrial sectors, have begun to decelerate (notably in forward-looking ‘New Orders’).
From FloatingPath.com (markups mine) we see the breakdown…
Bullard: Super hawk gets in blab mode the moment the market begins to crater in October… we can always bring on QE 4!
Fisher: We need to raise interest rates!
Bullard (back in hawk costume, feathers, talons, sharp beak and all): We need a rate hike sooner rather than later!
Evans: No hurry to raise rates!
Williams: Fed should not be too patient on rate hikes (more…)
There is a writer we’ll call Don Quixote who is tilting at something that no longer really exists… the evil gold promoters that used to be taken seriously by innocents to the tune of near total destruction of their portfolios.
Don once went on about the gold cult and I even highlighted his post because I had been going about the gold cult as well. The cult-like aspect of the gold “community” (← a dead giveaway) was real, and the group-think that the 2001-2011 bull market fostered was very strong and really damaging to those who did not question it tenets until it was too late.
But here’s the thing… it is now 2015 and nobody takes gold bugs spewing about a $2,000 PoG (if there are any of them left) seriously. But still Don tilts at the active promoters he imagines around every corner. Methinks Don is creating a niche of his own, firmly within the new phenomenon that has manifested in Martin Armstrong’s wake. Behind Marty have come a growing number of those who would save us from the evil promoters.
Gold’s CoT data predictably improved again this week, but here I think some discussion is needed just in case it starts to get hyped too much.
Below is the CoT on an improving trend of Commercial short covering and large Speculator long reduction. Okay, that’s good. But here is the part where the hype needs to be tuned out. The CoT tends to degrade (i.e. trend in a bearish direction during gold rallies) and improve (i.e. trend in a positive direction during gold corrections). The charts of CoT and gold below are set over the same 1 year time frames…