Anyone who has been bearish on gold for the last 4 years has been right. They have been right in Euros and though the trend appears to have been gently changing over the last year or two, they have been right in Canada & Aussie (i.e. commodity currencies) dollars as well. Certainly, they have been right that gold as measured in most global stock markets has been (and remains) bearish.
They have also been right in that gold as a hedge against the kind of inflation that global policy makers have promoted non-stop for years now, has utterly failed. And for gold as an insurance and value asset, a small phase like 4 years is like a blip. Yet still, so many people throw their hats into the ring on gold, constantly micro-managing its every twist and turn.
Below is the opening segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 353. After this theoretical exercise we got down to nuts and bolts analysis, which provided logical ‘bounce’ targets (provided a bounce is indeed what is in play) for Gold, Silver and HUI, a compelling trend in the Commitments of Traders data and more talk about the trends that will need to be in place before a favorable macrocosmic environment is in place for the gold sector.
Not one to obsess on the gold sector in a vacuum, NFTRH also covered US and global stock markets, commodities, macro indicators and currencies as usual.
In case you thought you were smart enough to know why the Fed wants to do what it supposedly wants to do  MarketWatch sets you straight with the real scoop. We’ll use this as a talking point and see what comes of it…
Policy makers want to give themselves some room to maneuver
That is the commonly held belief and who am I to dispute it? A big part of the problem is and has been their refusal to begin a journey toward normalization 2 years ago, when the economy began to visibly (we noted the seeds of that improvement in January of that year) improve. They had no confidence and I was left to wonder (aloud here, frequently and I am sure, sometimes obnoxiously) why Grandma  (and her 0% savings account payout) had to continue to bear the brunt of this non-action despite a recovering economy.
Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 352:
For what seems like forever we have been mechanical in managing the precious metals because they have been bearish; period. This has been based on short and long-term technical indications and incomplete macro fundamentals. Gary the robot has had no difficulty whatsoever holding this stance despite Gary the human’s unwavering view that the value of gold is in its insurance and long-term retained value qualities.
The precious metals took a hard bearish turn last week and that is the best news I have seen in a while because the complex has been locked below important resistance (failed support) for some time now and the sector usually completes its severe corrections and bear markets with a bang, not a quiet whimper.
You may have caught the title’s little inside joke.
Sometimes you (well, I anyway) can look at a graph representing data that is a culmination of history (i.e. reality) and just let it settle in for some perspective and even some conclusions.
Whether these conclusions are right or wrong is subjective and open to debate. But what I see here when viewing the Prime Rate historical is summed up after the graph (graphs courtesy of Economagic, mark ups mine).
Excerpted from an extensive multi-market NFTRH update (including global stocks, commodities and precious metals) yesterday morning:
Volatility. It is what we expected and it is what we have with Tuesday’s big down and upward reversal, down hard again yesterday and today very green in pre-market. This volatility applies to most assets markets including the precious metals. It is the nature of the beast during a news-rich summer, with many operators on vacation or semi-vacation (with some players not able to resist peeking?).
The S&P 500 has satisfied the 1st level of anticipated correction by weekly chart. It does not look like much, does it?
But it has been enough to launch pessimism to its highest level in many months. One definition of volatility: “liable to display rapid changes of emotion.” This is perfect for the whipsaw up and down backdrop going on by daily charts. (more…)
I linked Barry Ritholtz’s gold bug swipe along with other items in an Around the Web post. Anything linked (or republished from guests for that matter) on this site is to be taken as 100% their view, not mine. You, the reader are tasked with using your own brain to consider, discount or ignore any of it as you see fit.
What do I think of Ritholtz’s view on gold, personally? I think ole’ Barry is picking some easy, low hanging fruit to use up virtual ink over at Bloomberg, per his contract (real or implied). I mean really, gold did not react to Greece and he takes that as a negative for the metal?