Allow me to share a simple sketch I drew that was part of an NFTRH interim update for subscribers last night. The black line is where we have been. The blue line is a projection of what a typical correction (whether a healthy interim one or a bear market kick off) might look like.
We used real charts of the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to gauge the entry into the current correction and now the resistance points to the expected bounce off of the US market’s first healthy sentiment reset in quite some time. But our cartoon above gives you the favored plan on how the correction could play out. (more…)
The title’s quote is one of many eminently quotable messages I had the pleasure of receiving over a few years of contact with a late, great and a very interesting man* named Jonathan Auerbach, who headed a unique specialty (emerging and frontier markets) brokerage in NYC called Auerbach Grayson.
Jon was an honest and ethical man. He was also a gold bug (in that descriptor’s highest form) who innately understood the Kabuki Dance that has been ongoing by monetary authorities since the ‘Age of Inflation onDemand‘ (what guest poster Bruno de Landevoisin calls the Monetized New Millenium) started its most intense and bald faced phase in 2000.
Yesterday the minutes were released from the last (FOMC) meeting of official interest rate manipulators and surprise surprise, they are found to be hand wringing about the strong dollar. A strong dollar is going to take direct aim at US manufacturing among other exporting businesses, after all. (more…)
First off, if you have an interest in the price of gold and have not already done so, I highly recommend you check out Steve Hochberg’s 2-part Elliott Wave video presentation on gold (I want to disclose that signing up for Club EWI brings a small commission to yours truly ). With all his zigs, zags, waves and patterns he ends up at the same place I do with my simple version. I may use less cluttered methods, but I find this stuff very interesting.
With markets at a key juncture, the US dollar over bought (but bullish), the precious metals, commodities and increasingly, global markets over sold but bearish and US stocks acting as if October 2014 could at least recall memories of October 2008, I want to try to weave all this together around the simplistic monthly chart of gold, which is the asset that would provide liquidity for asset market refugees if the macro really were to get very negative. (more…)
I am making public a premium update for NFTRH subscribers that was emailed and posted here for subscribers a couple days ago. Two reasons… 1) I want you to consider subscribing because I believe NFTRH is the most comprehensive and grounded market management service out there, including in-week updates like this one and a weekend letter loaded with evolving information taking shape in a rational manner, and 2) because there is still very relevant information in this post that I think public readers can benefit from.
To begin, what I perceive as the notable event of the day is that the gold-silver ratio (GSR) has broken out. This was included as part of a public post earlier today. Here is the chart from that post…
In February of 2013 we noted the big fat HEAD on the HUI’s massive H&S pattern. It was reviewed again in April of 2013 after it broke the neckline in a very bearish move. Mr. Fat Head’s technical objective was and is 100.
Why is this being revisited? Because I have gotten a couple emails noting that it is showing up again out there amidst the very bearish backdrop. If anything, if every gold bug on the planet is planning for 100, the ingredient is in place for this final indignity that they are so well prepared for, to maybe not happen.
But a target is a target and it is there for a reason; namely that its source – Mr. Fat Head in this case – has not been eliminated from the picture. Here he is updated… (more…)
Well, the headlines are rightfully bearish for gold, silver and the major precious metals stock indexes, ETFs and senior gold miners. The technical damage is real. Today’s burst could be and probably is just short covering. [edit; post was mostly written before the end of day flop]
But improbably enough, there is a stealth uptrend going on in certain royalties, miners, developers and explorers. Believe me, if you could hear me talk instead of write you would not hear anything resembling desperation in my tone. That is because I have worked hard during this bear market to manage risk, stay strong and out of the bear’s way. So I am not talking any sort of a book here other than my biggest picture view (an economic contraction environment that ultimately benefits the counter cyclical gold sector), which could still be out on the horizon. (more…)
It looks like the machines have been rolling from one speculation to another, long or short. Just this year alone, the Ag’s got pumped…