Despite a tough week for stocks into Friday, February 9, three big picture macro indicators have continued to support a risk ‘on’ backdrop. Many of the shorter-term indicators we watch, like Junk bond ratios and the Palladium/Gold ratio say the same thing. Junk/Treasury and Junk/Investment Grade are threatening new highs and as we have noted in NFTRH updates all through the recent market volatility, Palladium (cyclical) got hammered vs. Gold (counter-cyclical), but only to test its major uptrend. Now the ratio is bouncing with the market relief that is so predictably taking hold (here’s a public post where we effectively called bullish, in-day on that Friday). (more…)
I try to have a lot of different ways of looking at the macro backdrop because if enough of them imply the same thing then a strong probabilities-based thesis can be made.
For instance, currently we are looking at long-term Treasury yields hit (10yr) or get very close to (30yr) upside targets. You know my stance there; I think risk is pretty high for a downward reaction in yields before too long. I’ve backed that view with portfolio balancing positions in 3-7yr and 7-10yr bonds. But even if a reaction comes about (and especially if it doesn’t), the big question is whether or not we are going into territory that has been uncharted for decades.
So are we going to eventually break the Continuum’s limiter? Here is the 30yr yield, almost to a target that few saw coming several months ago, outside of this website when we ID’d the downward consolidation as a bullish flag and used daily charts to gauge bullish patterns in the 10yr & 30yr. (more…)
US Stock Market
We will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I’d like to focus on the US stock market.
Let’s cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during the 2015-2016 period, when the media were all but demanding investors go one way when the right way was the opposite (for example, we got bullish during the Brexit mini hysteria because sentiment, macro indicators and charts told us to) during the market top (that wasn’t).
But today the bliss is wearing off as the average person did not need to wait for his monthly statement to see that something went wrong with the up-melting market that was printing him money every month. Here is a look at the Google Trend for the search term “stock market crash”. Per Google’s computation method, the reading cannot go higher than 100. (more…)
Too many gold bugs are either still pimping the ‘inflation trade’ or digitally pleasuring other gold bugs with predictions based on inflation. From my favorite example of this behavior just yesterday (he of the “drop dead gorgeous bull wedge” for GDX that failed into a miserable bear market extension a few years ago). Just yesterday…
“I’ve announced a long term target for GDX of $15,000. That really isn’t very high… given the strong inflation numbers that I am projecting for America in the years ahead.”
I don’t use the guy’s name because he is not a big public figure like Dennis Gartman or Doug Casey. But he is highly visible within the gold
cult err, “community” and he uses a lot of !!!!! when trying to hammer his points home to greedy gold bugs (the only kind, I assume, who take him seriously). Exclamation points are a sign of someone who really… really, I mean REALLY wants you to get their point!! (ha ha ha). (more…)
Over and over again I’ve been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is subject to change. The latest update was yesterday with a daily chart view.
Just look at them, the SPX vs. Gold Amigo, the 10yr & 30yr Yield Amigo and the Yield Curve Amigo. So happy-go-lucky while they ride. But #2, the one in the middle, looks like he’s bracing for something.
So okay, I played swami and nailed the Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings numbers on the head in this post from yesterday. We all get lucky here in the casino. Here is the post that the estimates came from the day before the Payrolls release. (more…)
Sure, I am the guy with indicators called the 3 Amigos and in the future, the 4 Horsemen. I am the guy who for 17+ years has been making up catch phrases for indicators and market backdrops alike (ex. 30yr T bond Continuum, Armageddon ’08 and the Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance, etc.) entertaining, pissing off and confusing people, and maybe along the way doing some teaching too.
Currently we have the happy-go-lucky Amigos (SPX vs. Gold, 10yr/30yr Yields & the Flattening Yield Curve) front and center as they ride toward their destinations, the end of the journey to which would begin to change the macro. We also have a supremely sensitive proprietary indicator being used in NFTRH to significantly fine tune the process of interpreting changes to the current cycle. You’ve gotta come at the macro from as many rational angles as possible if you want to minimize its confusing aspects. (more…)
I find the previous two monthly charts of USD and Euro to be of such great interest that they could well be assigned the designation of Amigo #4. But that would screw up a perfectly good (and goofy) theme.
I could shoe horn them in as the 4th Horseman (thought I forgot about this theme, did you?) but the 4th rider was to be the Gold/Silver Ratio (GSR). We’ll see on that, because the GSR has been a dysfunctional indicator for so long now.* USD & Euro may yet be the 4th Horseman of the Apocalypse to help bring on the pain after the happy go lucky goofballs above finish up. (more…)