Author Archives: NFTRH

1 Reason to Tune out 90% of the Gold ‘Community’

By -

  1. Because they remained bullish throughout a bear market while spouting slogans and dogma, keeping gullible people in the grip of a fantasy that they are comrades in arms against evil forces and that in the end, good will prevail.

In the end gold will be assigned its value, but there is absolutely no reason that people should have been hurt in the interim by holding the speculations that revolve around gold, especially at the behest of cranks, charlatans and carnival barkers. (more…)

Semiconductor Sector’s Excitement Continues

By -

Dialing back to January of 2013, I am looking for clues about the coming phase for the economy, mostly as an input into whether or not I can think about turning bullish on gold again (here we remind you again of gold’s best investment case, which is counter not pro cyclical).

The answer, from a contact in the Semiconductor sector (AMAT, LRCX, MKSI, etc.) food chain was that the Semi equipment companies, which we called “canaries on the [economic] coal mine”, were ramping up and thus NFTRH’s view became bullish for the economy, at least short-term. (more…)

Economic Contraction Road Map

By -

Just a friendly reminder from your friends here at biiwii.com that we are in an economic contraction, not an expansion when viewing the big picture. Indeed, it is this site that has highlighted the little post-2012 expansion more vigorously than any other bearish leaning entity that I have seen, and earlier than most bullish entities I might add.

That was because of the Semiconductor Equipment ramp up → Palladium-Gold ratio → ISM upturn → Jobs upturn continuum we have been on. But that is a positive cycle within a much larger cycle that is very negative. Here’s the updated view of counter cyclical gold vs. cyclical commodities, which may be starting its next up turn. (more…)

Currencies and Gold, Big Picture

By -

Uncle Buck and his reserve status were leveraged to the hilt by “The Hero” and now his successor is trying to gently talk the Fed out of its policy stance over time. In other words, tightening is going to come one way or another and Janet Yellen is trying to go the orderly route. When this process becomes disorderly, the USD is likely to benefit from the liquidations elsewhere in the asset world.

Technically, USD is in a long basing pattern. There are those who think it is basing before a renewed decline, reading a Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) pattern into poor old Unc. I think the odds are it is bottoming over the post-2008 years when inflation – try as they might to have promoted it – simply has not taken root. Leaning bullish, watch support and resistance.

usd

(more…)

Stumpf it

By -

Those promoting the bad GDP data should listen to Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf who, like this cranky little spot in the financial media here at biiwii, thinks the US economy is “stronger than people think”.

Wells Fargo CEO: The US economy will surprise you

All you have to do is open your eyes and look at corporate profits and manufacturing, to name but two major pillars. Jobs is another, even considering the constant debates about the quality of said jobs. (more…)

Schumer to Yellen: Keep Blowing That Bubble!

By -

Good old Chuck, too much is apparently not nearly enough. Chuck wants ZIRP-infinity stating that Ms. Yellen should “be careful” about raising interest rates.

Here’s what Sen. Charles Schumer wants to tell Janet Yellen on Tuesday

He ostensibly thinks that a lack of job growth is the “overwhelming problem” facing the economy. I think Chuck’s straw man is starting to come apart at the seams as the hay that stuffs it pops out in an embarrassing display. (more…)

NFTRH 298 Excerpt: US Stock Markets

By -

The following is an excerpt from NFTRH 298′s 38 pages of hard hitting, no b/s market analysis, which also included extensive work on the precious metals along with commodities, currencies, global markets and market sentiment.

NFTRH subscriber (7.6.14): “You should publish pages 15 and 16 of this weeks report. I would like to share it. It is a great summary of the current situation.” Pages 15 & 16 take it through the Dow chart below. I decided to go with the whole segment on US stocks. (more…)