The S&P 500’s ‘Trump Trade’ is still intact per a chart guy actually worth listening to, Rich Ross, who I met 7 years ago when he worked at the firm (Auerbach-Grayson) run by my late friend, Jonathan Auerbach. Nice guy with nice, clear charts and no need to over complicate things.
Here he shows SPY above its SMA 50, which folks, is one of the reasons why I covered my own short positions. The other reasons were that the SOX was still on its short-term moving averages and Goldman and the Financials were smashing into lateral support and getting oversold.
This one chart shows why ‘the Trump trade’ is still intact (video link) (more…)
I’ve been watching the herds to try to determine just when the interest rate topic among the best and brightest (as chosen by the media) would start to pivot from ‘rising rates!’ hysterics that have been locked and loaded in the public psyche since the US election to a sort of ‘rut roh, maybe we got played again… ‘ realization that Rome – and a Great America – are not built in a day.
What I am trying to say is that after the previous media headlines last summer (mainstream media: NIRP & BREXIT!!… everybody into risk ‘off’ bonds!) yields reacted a bit and rose as they should have, from a contrary setup, in order to catch the herds off sides.
But then the hysteria over the Trump election led to the Druck’n Suck-In of the true believers (or “Sons of Druckenmiller”) and… here we are with everybody anti-bonds, pro-reflation and pro-interest rates. Maybe they would be right this time, but then again, given the herd’s history (from Sentimentrader w/ my markups)…
Every time SMH does this, it quickly pulls back. At least that has been the case each time it has popped upward from an already overbought situation over the last 8 months. Now, I am short the Semis (in a complete 180° from 10 months ago) and long the boring stuff, so I am talking my book.
But I am also talking this chart, and if the Semis prove that it is different this time I’ll have to cover in ignominy. But it cannot be argued that these types of moves – sucking in the last of the momos – have routinely preceded mini and not so mini pullbacks throughout the rally.*
* An aged rally, at that. It was appropriate to get bullish when we did. In my opinion it is inappropriate now… very inappropriate. But we’ll see what the market decides. If it is going to blow off, the Semis could lead. So there is obviously risk being short as well.
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Those who don’t like my writing style may already call me boring (or worse), but as far as stock holdings go I willingly take on that description. If you’re looking for words about yesterday’s FOMC meeting, you won’t find them here. There are plenty of people picking that thing apart and trying to make chicken salad (news) out of chicken shit (a non-event).
I am not going to go on about the precious metals’ big rip yesterday because that is for casino patrons to get excited about. I’ve expected the sector to bounce from oversold conditions. When it takes out real upside parameters (that NFTRH will surely manage) we’ll amp up the hysterics (not really).
The stock market? It’s scenarios are Thing 1 and Thing 2. The 1st Thing is to resume upward now and bring on the climactic suck in sooner rather than later. The 2nd Thing is the healthier one, where the market corrects now and makes new highs and sucks ’em in later. I’ve favored Thing 2, but now it is time to watch short-term events and do what the market says. Okay, before I get off track, on to the boring stuff…
I’ve been thinking about the current Fed Funds rate hike cycle, which is logically gaining forward momentum now that the Fed can stand down from its 8-year, ultra-lenient monetary policy cycle. That is because the Obama administration’s goals required a compliant Federal Reserve to continually re-liquefy the economy as its fiscal policies drained it.
With the coming of Trump mania and its very different fiscal policy goals, we will witness the end of much of what I considered to be the “evil genius” employed by the Federal Reserve, mostly under Ben Bernanke. When he oversaw the brilliant and completely maniacal painting of the macro known as Operation Twist in 2011, I knew we were not in Kansas anymore. We’d gone off the charts and off the balance sheet into a Wonderland of financial and monetary possibilities.
What else would you call a plan to sell the government’s short-term debt and buy its long-term debt in the stated effort to “sanitize” (the Fed’s word, not mine) inflationary signals on the macro? It was evil, it was genius, and it worked. So too did various other financial manipulations that took place before and after Op/Twist. And here we are.
This week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole included a little Payrolls/Wages related economic discussion before moving on to the usual coverage of stock markets, commodities, precious metals, bonds, currencies and related indicators and market internals. With FOMC on tap there will be more data noise directly ahead, but then I expect markets to smooth out into what is looking like a sensible short and intermediate-term plan.
Graphic sources: St. Louis Fed, BLS, TradingEconomics, Macrotrends & Bespoke Premium
So Payrolls came in a little firmer than expected and interestingly, the manufacturing sectors did some solid hiring. This is an area that is sensitive to coming fiscal policy because it is subject to regulations likely to be repealed (especially environmental, a real fundamental underpinning) and high paying jobs repatriation to U.S. shores (a phony baloney fundamental, at least in large part, in my opinion). In this graph we see that manufacturing job losses had been easing into the election, but job gains have ramped up after the election. All of this on anticipated policy changes? (more…)
The following is the opening segment of this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 437. While I think several proposed Trump administration policies would have positive down the road effects for corporate America and the asset ownership class, the administration will have to survive intact in order to implement them. This is one erratic and shall we say, fluid, situation and this is not a leader who inspires confidence, speaking personally at least.
Last week we reduced the charting in favor of increased talking. That was because I had some things to say about the at-risk gold sector and its incomplete macro fundamentals.
There was also a lot to say about stock market sectors that would be favored or avoided if the long-term bond yield environment continued to shift to declining (bonds bouncing). Last week dealt a blow (in the form of Trump’s triumphant speech to congress and unusually aggressive Fed jawboning) to bonds, but did not break the play.