Following is the opening segment from the May 29 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 397:
If we are going to highlight improving fundamentals, which we did as gold out performed commodities and stock markets, then we also have to highlight and respect eroding fundamentals; no ifs, ands or buts.
The plain and simple fact is that the Semiconductor Equipment sector is firming, with the April Book-to-Bill (b2b) joining Applied Materials’ quarterly report noted in NFTRH 396’s opening segment as another bullish [economic] indicator. Semi Equipment was a leader to the general Semi sector in early 2013, which in turn led the economy and job creation. Our fundamental gold view improved in January 2016 as gold launched upward vs. global stock markets, joining its positive status vs. commodities.
The following is the opening segment of this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 396. The report also covers, in detail, the technical status of US/Global stock markets, precious metals, commodities, currencies and even a few individual gold miners and a couple of new (non-gold related) NFTRH+ trade ideas.
In January of 2013 we noted that the “Canary’s Canary” chirped and signaled an economic up phase (such as it was) on the horizon. The Canary was the Semiconductor sector, which is cyclical and economically sensitive. The Canary’s Canary is the Semi Equipment sector, manned by the likes of Applied Materials and Lam Research.
This is the opening segment from the May 15 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 395. I am releasing it for public viewing because it seems, the title’s question has come roaring to the forefront this week. So the information (including the charts) is slightly dated, but becoming intensely relevant as of now.
We anticipated an ‘inflation trade’ or Anti-USD asset market bounce and this has been going on since mid-February. That was when silver wrestled leadership from the first mover, gold (which bottomed in December and turned up in January), and a whole host of other global asset markets began to rise persistently.
Aside from sounding consistently self-conscious Martin Armstrong seems to find a need to wrap basic and well known (or what should be well known) concepts in cloaks of mystery that only he – and his computer – can divine. I think this is a really smart man, but with an out sized ego.
Up-Down-Sideways? What is Going On?
“The Golden Rule of the 3 Attempts (TM)” * is another way of saying that the more times a market bashes away at resistance, the weaker that resistance tends to become. It’s basic TA, can be applied to short or long time frames and it’s widely known and respected. You have seen me write things like that many times over the years. In reverse, the more times support is tested, the weaker it tends to become. TA 101, or at least it should be.
“It becomes rather amusing to what the so called professions end up constantly wrong so they start bruding and proclaiming this feels like 2000 or 2007 before the crash.”
I could write a long, detailed post trying to encompass global stock markets (generally bearish), commodities (bounce very mature) and bonds (mixed views, depending upon the flavor) but that is what I get paid to do each weekend in NFTRH reports and in private posts at the site. The beauty of public posts is that I can write as much or as little as I feel like writing. Today I feel like writing a little about gold (and silver) and the stock market. I also feel like using daily charts because I think time frames are pinching in for upcoming pivotal moves.
Gold is in a rather orderly Handle to a short-term Cup & Handle. Personally, I think gold and the precious metals complex need a correction because [insert CoT, Sentiment and over bought reasoning here]… But the chart thinks otherwise. If the Handle breaks upward and gold exceeds 1300, the measured target is to around 1370. It if goes the other way, watch for support beginning at the October high of 1191 down to 1180, figuring for wiggle room.
 The post began as a simple view of the inflationary dynamics in play within the precious metals market but as sometimes happens it, err… expanded. Please excuse the wordiness. But I would rather be wordy and try to make points backed in facts and data than backed only by my biased ego.
Not that I have proof (re: the title), but I do have some charts to help make the point that people who bought gold and gold stocks due to inflation fears have been driving the gold sector higher since March.
Back in January and February HUI rammed upward amid much doubt and skepticism because the general market backdrop was bearish and even more importantly, the commodity focused ‘inflation trade’ was nowhere to be found. At that time we were calling the deflation story “long in the tooth”.
There has been a lot of talk about how gold is not a good inflation hedge. Indeed, with the recent bounce in inflation expectations, this was shown to be true over a short timeframe, at least in relation to silver and other commodities. Gold sagged while the more inflation-sensitive commodities bounced.
If you are following the gold stock sector, please put aside analysis focusing an undue amount of attention on inflation. The proper fundamental backdrop for improving gold mining operational efficiency is one where economies and stock markets are weak and liquidity is constrained. That is when gold (risk ‘off’ liquidity) rises relative to those things that are positively correlated to economies.