Author Archives: NFTRH

The Macro View and the Stock Market

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Excerpted from the September 21 edition of NFTRH, #309, which went on to do extensive technical and macro work across all the key markets…

Last week we noted that Uncle Buck would be front and center in the analysis, not because the strength in the (anti-market) currency was not expected (it was), but because our big picture theme of an ongoing economic contraction had remained intact (ref: gold vs. commodities ratio) over the long-term.

It is important here to remember that NFTRH would only be on its big picture macro themes as long as indictors implied they are still viable. I will be damned if I will let us follow a Pied Piper off an ideological cliff, no matter what readers (including me) might want to hear. We must dedicate to know what is happening, not what our hopes, dreams, egos, etc. think or worse, hope will happen. (more…)

A Stroll Through Market History on FOMC Day

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We take the Way Back machine to a time of normalcy and plenty, in the 50’s when the stock market did okay but savers were paid (through T Bill yields) to do the most prudent thing people in a natural economy can do… save. Ever since 1980 the theme has been for the nation to eat its seed corn, with asset owners getting increasingly more portly in the process and savers nudged ever further out to the margin. The S&P 500 has sure got no complaints these days. It’s in lockstep with policy.

sp500.1

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A Closer Look at the US Dollar

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Excerpted from NFTRH 308’s opening segment…

A Closer Look at the US Dollar

Using the standard weekly currency chart we followed along for months as the Euro found resistance at the long-term downtrend line as expected, the commodity currencies long ago lost major support and non-confirmed the commodity complex and the US dollar moved from a hold of critical support, to a trend line breakout, to its current impulsive and over bought status. It is time now for a closer look at Uncle Buck since this reserve currency is key to so many asset markets the world over.

As the charts below show, USD is over bought on both daily and weekly time frames. But the monthly is interesting because its big picture view is that of a basing/bottoming pattern, and it is bullish. That is a long-term director, so regardless of what happens in the short-term, a process of unwinding the hyper-inflationist ‘Dollar Collapse’ cult is ongoing. Signs point to disinflation toward deflation. (more…)

Sentiment Shifting for Gold Bugs

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Warning… Condescension ensues… NFTRH 307’s opening segment, dated 9.7.14:

From a post on the HUI at the site last week:

“There are worse things that could happen than filling a gap and scattering the wrong kind of gold bugs back out. Then it would be up to the longer-term charts to do the heavy lifting if the daily does fulfill this downside potential.”

The gap was filled, the top end of the anticipated support zone was reached and indeed, the wrong [i.e. momentum players] kind of gold bugs are scattering back out. The hard sell down on Thursday was very likely due in large part to the selling by traders with a fetish about gold as a geopolitical or terror hedge. (more…)

NFTRH 307 Excerpt; Currencies

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NFTRH has been bullish the USD and bearish the Euro, Canada dollar and Aussie dollar for quite some time now, most often using this simple weekly chart of various currencies. Months ago we noted USD creeping out of its downtrend (green dotted line) and the Euro falling out of its wedge (red dotted line). Back then, sentiment toward the USD was far different than it is today. So this week the Currency segment included some thoughts (and data) on USD and Euro sentiment as well.

Also of note, while the excerpt speculates that a USD reversal could trigger bounces in commodities and precious metals, these items generally remain bearish until proven otherwise. Not the other way around. (more…)

Market Ratio Messages

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Using monthly charts I want to update more big picture views of where we stand in the financial markets. This is just a brief summary [edit; okay it's not so brief. In fact it had to be ended abruptly or else it would have just kept on rambling] and not meant as in depth analysis with finite conclusions.

I was listening to Martin Armstrong talk about his ‘economic confidence’ model and realized that the way he views gold is similar to the way I do (and very dis-similar to the way inflationists and ‘death of the dollar’ promoters do). I don’t love the way he writes, and I usually avoid these weird interview sites, but checked it out (linked at 321Gold) anyway and found him enjoyable to listen to.

Anyway, this prompted another big picture look at gold vs. the S&P 500 and as with the shorter-term views, the picture is not pretty. (more…)

HUI Timing Boxes

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In the previous post it was mentioned that the 2013-2014 would-be bottoming grind in HUI has been almost exactly the duration of the 2010-2011 topping grind. Here is a visual to put with that statement.

hui

The current yellow box is an exact duplicate of the 2010/11 box, which came with an over bought MACD crossed down. The breakdown candle implies that September would be the month that a break UP candle comes into play if this relationship has any predictive power.

Taking it further, as also noted in the previous post, the Ukraine noise does not help the sector and indeed could hurt in the short-term, because it keeps the wrong gold bugs on the tout. So NFTRH keeps open some minor downside targets.

Taking it further still, those downside targets would end up being buying opportunities if gold’s macro fundamentals start to improve, which despite the emails I get to the contrary, really has not happened yet beyond a few ongoing positives. But it had not happened yet in 2000 either.