Unless you visit the Notes From the Rabbit Hole website regularly, you might think the title of this article implies it is written by a market analyst pretending to know what will happen; like a top in the stock market or a resumed bull cycle in gold. You might also think it is written by one of the writers who’ve either a) been fighting the stock bull since the bearish market terminated a year ago or b) been a perma gold bug bull.
So once again, we have our disclaimers because in a milieu of quickly forgotten soundbites, integrity is important. So I point you to a couple of posts (among many others) that indicated, when the time was right for people to get bullish the stock market in favor of gold.
AMAT Chirps, B2B Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode (May 30, 2016) (more…)
It seems that I don’t post very much on oil (or Natural Gas, for that matter). These are covered each weekend in NFTRH; but yes it’s true, I give oil and energy short shrift in public posting. Probably because I have other higher priority interests right now.
But a subscriber asked about shorting oil in light of the fading efficacy of the OPEC deal, Elliott Wave’s (I assume he means EWI) apparent target of $56 with a crash due thereafter, and Sentimentrader’s high risk sentiment reading. So let’s look into it.
WTI Crude Oil is bullish above key support by daily chart.
I used to make fun of the FOMC rate hike “decision” language in the mainstream media because under the Obama administration and its economic policies overseen by the Fed’s monetary policy, there really was no decision, was there? It was ZIRP-eternity, interrupted by a lone and token rate hike in December 2015 (the Dec. 2016 hike does not count because the transition to a new administration and policy regime was already known; in effect, the Fed has already made its first hike under Trump).
According to the traders who make up the Fed Funds futures, there is no decision tomorrow, either. From CME Group, we have virtually no one predicting two successive rate hikes.
A slightly modified version of the opening segment of this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 431…
After being mostly off the grid on Friday, I listened to the Trump inauguration speech on Saturday morning. While I have lots of thoughts and opinions, I want to focus on an item where I am qualified; namely my former area of expertise as someone who was in essence told by the media over and over again “you don’t exist”, while the consumerist, financialized and globalized economy flourished. By “you” I of course mean me, an owner of a small American manufacturing business. My area of focus from the speech…
“We’ve made other countries rich while the wealth, strength and confidence of our country has dissipated over the horizon. One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind. The wealth of the middle class has been ripped from their homes and then redistributed all across the world. But that is the past and now we are looking only to the future.
We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital and in every hall of power. From this day forward a new vision will govern our land. From this day forward it’s going to be ‘America first… America first… America first’! (more…)
Gold vs. the Euro index can be a leader for gold in nominal terms. I was reminded of this when reading an aside within Tom McClellan’s article Copper Leads the Way Lower for Bond Yields, posted at Biiwii. His article was interesting to me because its thesis supports my view that long-term bond yields are due to decline. But the aside about gold and euros got me pulling some charts for this post.
Au-XEU (daily) has declined to a support zone and retraced over 50% of the 2016 gain.