Author Archives: NFTRH

FOMC Cites Job Gains?

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Fed Announces End to Bond-Buying, Citing Job Gains –New York Times

Just a week or so ago one of the Fed’s three most celebrated hawks jumped the mic with a ‘shucks ya know, we could always delay the end of QE’ routine as the stock market plummeted. They don’t make hawks like they used to.

So what does the FOMC really mean, ‘job gains are good so we are ending QE’ or… ‘phew, that was a close one but the market took the Bullard bait and is back near the highs so we are ending QE… for now’. I’ll take ‘B’ Alex.

I seriously wonder how people other than promoters in the media and the financial services complex can continue to fall in line behind this transparent stuff. Maybe it is not really people after all but instead a bunch of connected black boxes, dark pools and other such robo systems simply programmed, without feeling, to follow the code. (more…)

Economic Snapshot

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Excerpted from this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 314:

Our view has been that a stronger US dollar would eventually start to eat away at corporate results, especially in the manufacturing sector and at US based companies with a  global customer base.  The decline in revenues thus far is something to be watched because where revenues go, earnings eventually follow.

[edit: the segment previous to this one reviewed a contrast between strong earnings and sagging revenues with companies that have reported earnings thus far]

An article by Doug Short published at Business Insider on Friday illustrates how the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) called for a recession in 2011 and was promptly made to eat that call first by Operation Twist and then by balls out QE3.  All the while as ZIRP has quietly whirred along in the background for 6 years. (more…)

Market Summary; Saturday Morning Cartoons

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Allow me to share a simple sketch I drew that was part of an NFTRH interim update for subscribers last night. The black line is where we have been. The blue line is a projection of what a typical correction (whether a healthy interim one or a bear market kick off) might look like.

marketgraph

We used real charts of the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to gauge the entry into the current correction and now the resistance points to the expected bounce off of the US market’s first healthy sentiment reset in quite some time. But our cartoon above gives you the favored plan on how the correction could play out. (more…)

“It’s Inflation All the way, Baby!”

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The title’s quote is one of many eminently quotable messages I had the pleasure of receiving over a few years of contact with a late, great and a very interesting man* named Jonathan Auerbach, who headed a unique specialty (emerging and frontier markets) brokerage in NYC called Auerbach Grayson.

kabukiJon was an honest and ethical man. He was also a gold bug (in that descriptor’s highest form) who innately understood the Kabuki Dance that has been ongoing by monetary authorities since the ‘Age of Inflation onDemand‘ (what guest poster Bruno de Landevoisin calls the Monetized New Millenium) started its most intense and bald faced phase in 2000.

Yesterday the minutes were released from the last (FOMC) meeting of official interest rate manipulators and surprise surprise, they are found to be hand wringing about the strong dollar. A strong dollar is going to take direct aim at US manufacturing among other exporting businesses, after all. (more…)

Gold; a Simpleton’s View

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First off, if you have an interest in the price of gold and have not already done so, I highly recommend you check out Steve Hochberg’s 2-part Elliott Wave video presentation on gold (I want to disclose that signing up for Club EWI brings a small commission to yours truly ;-) ). With all his zigs, zags, waves and patterns he ends up at the same place I do with my simple version. I may use less cluttered methods, but I find this stuff very interesting.

With markets at a key juncture, the US dollar over bought (but bullish), the precious metals, commodities and increasingly, global markets over sold but bearish and US stocks acting as if October 2014 could at least recall memories of October 2008, I want to try to weave all this together around the simplistic monthly chart of gold, which is the asset that would provide liquidity for asset market refugees if the macro really were to get very negative. (more…)

NFTRH; Multi-Market Update

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I am making public a premium update for NFTRH subscribers that was emailed and posted here for subscribers a couple days ago. Two reasons… 1) I want you to consider subscribing because I believe NFTRH is the most comprehensive and grounded market management service out there, including in-week updates like this one and a weekend letter loaded with evolving information taking shape in a rational manner, and 2) because there is still very relevant information in this post that I think public readers can benefit from.

To begin, what I perceive as the notable event of the day is that the gold-silver ratio (GSR) has broken out. This was included as part of a public post earlier today. Here is the chart from that post…

gld.slv

(more…)

Reacquainting w/ Mr. Fat Head; AKA HUI Monthly

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In February of 2013 we noted the big fat HEAD on the HUI’s massive H&S pattern. It was reviewed again in April of 2013 after it broke the neckline in a very bearish move. Mr. Fat Head’s technical objective was and is 100.

Why is this being revisited? Because I have gotten a couple emails noting that it is showing up again out there amidst the very bearish backdrop. If anything, if every gold bug on the planet is planning for 100, the ingredient is in place for this final indignity that they are so well prepared for, to maybe not happen.

But a target is a target and it is there for a reason; namely that its source – Mr. Fat Head in this case – has not been eliminated from the picture. Here he is updated… (more…)