Author Archives: springheel_jack

The Rally Is Flagging

By -

The rally that the bulls failed to manage yesterday has been delivered today, with SPX sustaining some trade above the daily lower band, though albeit not by a lot. So far the rally has retraced 50% of Tuesday’s decline while forming a very nice rising channel. So far this is a classic bear flag setup that on a break of channel support should at minimum deliver a retest of yesterday’s low. SPX 5min chart:

170323 SPX 5min

(more…)

Markets Are Like Onions

By -

That was a very powerful break down yesterday, ending what I understand was the longest period on SPX ever without a 1% daily decline. The rising wedge from November 2016 has broken down. The minimum target retracement should be the 38.2% fib retracement target in the 2280 area, and the next trendline support is rising wedge support from the February 2016 low, currently in the 2220 area and rising of course.

In the short term the open sell signals on the daily and hourly charts have made target, and I am looking for a topping pattern. I am also watching for the potential lower band ride that may be starting here, and in the case of a strong lower band ride we may see the daily lower band, currently at 2347, act as resistance, and the 3sd lower band, currently at 2335, act as support. If bulls can convert the lower band at 2347 to support then they have a shot at a strong rally here that could potentially retest the ATH to make a likely second high of a double top. SPX daily chart:

170322 SPX Daily

(more…)

The Rising Wedge Breaks Down Hard

By -

The SPX rising wedge broke down slightly yesterday and then followed through hard this morning. I have a minimum target at the 38.2% fib retracement in the 2280 area. However I would normally expect to see a topping pattern at a high like this and while there is some potential for an H&S to form, I’d note that about 70% of SPX significant highs are made with double tops, so we may well still see an ATH retest before the main decline begins. If we are to just see a move to 2280, and that is going to be set up with a double top, then the obvious place to see the rally to the second high start would be in the 2340-50 area, and I have drawn in a couple of possible bull flag support trendline options for that. The first one has been tested at the current low today. The hourly RSI 14 sell signal has made target but no positive divergence yet. SPX 60min chart:

170321 SPX 60min

(more…)

Shrodinger’s Tortoise Race

By -

Everyone knows the story of the story of the race between the tortoise and the hare, but what if the race had been between the tortoise and another tortoise? Which tortoise would have won the race? The answer is that no-one would know, as no-one would have remained awake until the end of the race. Moving sideways into quantum mechanics for a moment, one could then argue that in the absence of an observer, with the arguable exception of the tortoises, that neither tortoise won the race, if indeed there had been a race at all.

Where am I going with this? I’m just observing that the market tape has been impressively dull lately, and that it will be nice when things speed up a bit, at the end of this seemingly endless topping process. In that regard though, things are at least moving along a little.

(more…)

Little Ado About Even Less

By -

Remarkably SPX/ES is still in the same inflection point it was yesterday afternoon. I had expected to see some resolution either up or down on ES overnight but no, so both targets are still in play at either the strong support zone at 2368-72 SPX with rising wedge support, the ES weekly pivot, the 50 hour MA and the daily middle band, or a retest of the rally high at 2390. I’m expecting to see one of those targets hit today and and am leaning bearish, though without any great conviction. SPX 60min chart:

170317 SPX 60min

(more…)

Inside Day …. Probably

By -

The bull flag channels broke up on both SPX and ES, and the obvious next target is a retest of the ATH on both. As long as wedge support holds, currently at 2365, then my working assumption is that, after an inside day today, an ATH retest is next, with a possible target above at wedge resistance, currently in the 2417 area. First support is at the 50 hour MA, currently at 2370/1. SPX 60min chart:

170316 SPX 60min

(more…)

Fed Schmed

By -

I always find Fed days a bit strange. The markets seem to hang on the words of an institution that doesn’t actually control interest rates, which are set by the bond markets primarily on the markets for ten and thirty year treasuries. The Fed also doesn’t appear to employ any decent analysts to at least give them an idea of where bond yields might be heading, as shown in the bond bear massacre in 2014 at the end of QE3, where the Fed managed to convince almost everyone that the big rally on bonds that was obviously coming in 2014 would in fact be a big decline. If you’d like to read about that amazing train wreck then I was writing about it in the second half of a post in May 2014 and you can see that here.

Regardless of the ongoing mystery of why anyone pays any attention to the Fed, especially on a day where it seems that they have trailed this modest rate rise so heavily that everyone assumes that the probability of it happening today is close to 100%, and which in any event is just a case of them raising rates from almost zero to a little more than almost zero, I am posting an apposite Monty Python clip in honor of this non-event, though obviously I flatter the Fed with this implied comparison:

(more…)