I was looking for a decline of more than 5% from the high on SPX to signal that the market was normalising into a more two way trading environment, and that has been hit today, and then some. On the video below I was noting the large amount of positive divergence on various charts and liking the odds for a rally that has not yet materialised, with SPX punching 1% below the daily lower band at the LOD so far.
This is impressive stuff, and the advances/declines level today is suggesting that we may see a repeat of Friday afternoon with a close at or near the low. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)
No futures charts or video this afternoon as I tripped over this morning while trying to find somewhere in an unfamiliar city using Google Maps. My phone smashed and that, needless to say, is my primary authentication device for accessing my futures charts.
Only a temporary setback as I have a very good iPhone/iPad repair place, and I am a favorite customer with a bulk discount due to my household having a lot of apple devices, mainly being used by three rather careless/clumsy kids. I’ll have the iPhone back tomorrow so I’m inclined to interpret this as a sign from above suggesting that I might consider going to bed early tonight. For a fact, I am rather tired so I think I’ll be doing that. (more…)
Stan and I are doing our free monthly Chart Chat on Sunday at theartofchart.net. We’ll be covering the usual wide range of instruments and you can register for that on our February Free Webinars page.
ES/SPX just consolidating here at the moment, though if there is a break and conversion of the 50 hour MA now at 2841 that would open a test of the open breakaway gap down from 2853.53. In the absence of a break down the obvious next target would be the daily middle band in the 2800 area. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF:
Well obviously SPX didn’t do the higher high that I would have preferred, and this morning’s gap down broke down through rising wedge support and also gapped back through the open breakaway gap up from 2839.25. This currently leaves a decent quality island top on SPX and an open breakaway gap down from 2853.53 that I wouldn’t expect to see filled until the current decline is finished.
No clear reversal pattern yet, though there is a poor to medium quality H&S option that I have marked on the chart below. The minimum targets I would generally be looking for on a break of a rising wedge like this are the 38.2% or 50% retracement targets in the 2797 or 2773 areas respectively. SPX 60min chart:
I had an interesting question on my twitter that I answered this morning, and it was in response to my tweet at the open on Friday saying that both ES and NQ had formed clear bullish triangles and that I was expecting ATH retests on both. The question was from later in the day when the ATH retests had been done and both indices continued up in a trend day. The question was why the outlook had changed, and my reply this morning was to point out that I had tweeted that I was expecting the retests, but that I had never added that ES and NQ would reverse there. The outlook had not therefore changed. I had expanded on that in Friday’s intraday video before the main move up, but there’s only so much you can put into a tweet. What was interesting about the question is how people read beyond what is actually said. Something I see regularly. (more…)
I said on my twitter this morning near the open that both ES and NQ had formed bullish triangles that should at minimum deliver full retests of the all time highs on both in the near future. ES did a new all time high this morning and NQ has now scraped a new ATH by a tick this afternoon. Those are the minimum targets made and we could see a reversal here, though obviously we may not, and historically even if we do, significant declines on Friday afternoons are a rarity.
I have a quick look at how these triangles tend to behave on the video below and would also note that these triangle thrusts tend to be termination moves, and if that is the case here, then after the triangle thrust is retraced, ES and NQ are likely to continue down into what might at least be a retracement that lasts more than a day. Who knows, or dares to dream, or can even remember what such a retracement might look like? (more…)
I posted my premarket video today as I haven’t done that in a while, and in part that’s because I’m not well and trying to protect my voice today, so it makes sense not to do an intraday video today.
The analysis of equity indices is at the start of the video and I’ve left in the other sixteen instruments I cover every morning in these premarket videos at theartofchart.net. If you’re interested, there are interesting things happening on DX & USD pairs, CL, GC, ZB & HG particularly.
Premarket Video – Update on ES, NQ, TF, and CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, KC, SB, CC & ZW: