Was Tuesday’s downdraft just a shakeout of and a bear trap for short-sellers, or the beginning of further weakness in the FAANGs + 5 Tech stocks that make up FNGU?
Keep an eye on the ROC and the zero level on Chart #1 below. It’s shown with an input value of 12 days (its default setting).
So far, only AAPL and TSLA’s ROC has dropped below zero. If the others follow suit in the coming days, we may see a big selloff occur in Tech, overall.
The following monthly chart of the US Dollar (DX) contains three Andrew’s Pitchfork channels. The channel median apex for the two largest ones (pink and blue) sits at 90.00 and forms major channel support.
Price has been swirling around 90.00 since mid-January of this year. Recently, the DX has found support at the bottom of the smallest channel (green), which begins in March 2008. The momentum indicator has made a lower swing low, so it remains in downtrend on this timeframe and is still below the zero level, but has recently hooked upward.
I last wrote about the S&P 500 Index on April 19 and also included a couple of updates later that day.
I mentioned that its latest rally that tagged 2700 was weak and that the intraday action that day was hinting that it could be a pivot point where we’d see price either spike back up to 2700 or plunge down to 2650, or lower.
As at 1:30 pm ET today (Tuesday) the SPX has plunged below 2650 as the 10-Yr Treasury Yields tagged 3%, as shown on the following daily chart. (more…)
The following three graphs show the percentages gained/lost for commodities for:
- 2018 (Oil and Gasoline have been the big winners),
- the month of April (Copper and Silver have joined Oil and Gasoline as the biggest gainers), and
- the past week (Silver and Copper have gained the most, followed by Oil and Gasoline).
Chart #1 is a monthly chart of WTIC Crude Oil (in the upper half) and the CL:OVX ratio (depicted in histogram format in the lower half).
As I’ve noted recently, the major price resistance and support levels are 80.00 and 60.00, respectively.
Corresponding to those are the major ratio resistance and support levels of 3.00 and 2.00, respectively. In this regard, it will be important for the ratio to remain above 2.00 and the ratio 5 MA to remain above the 8 MA to confirm an upward bias on Oil on this timeframe. (more…)
The following 60 minute chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) shows intraday support and resistance levels at 2650 and 2700, respectively.
The momentum and relative volatility index technical indicators have plunged on today’s action, so far (as at 1:15 pm ET, Thursday April 19), and price has fallen back into the lower 1/4 of the uptrending Andrew’s Pitchfork channel…all of which are suggesting that the latest attempted rally that began on April 2 is pretty weak, but the pullbacks that have occurred since then have been tight and shallow.
However, the level of volatility and momentum in today’s intraday action may indicate that this may end soon and that today will mark a pivot point of some kind. Either we’ll see price break free of this tight trading action and spike to 2700, or we’ll see price plunge down to 2650, with a continued breakout in either direction. (more…)
THE BARE FACTS:
- Last night’s joint US/British/French military operation in Syria is over and no amount of arguments for/against it will change that fact.
- Prior to that and as at Friday’s close, the US Major Indices were still mired inside their respective consolidation zones near their 50-day MA, as shown on the following 1-year and 2-month daily charts.
SO, HOW WILL MARKETS REACT?
In the short term, watch for any 20 MA crossover (and hold) above the 50 MA on any market rally next week and beyond, as one signal of potential sustainable equity strength in the weeks ahead. (more…)