Author Archives: Strawberry Blonde

Volatility Ramping Up in 2017

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Further to my post of August 10th, the following Daily chart of the VIX shows that the same number of volatility price spikes has already occurred, so far this year, as made in all of last year.

A series of higher swing highs on the RSI, since Q4 of 2015, is hinting that each price spike made, since then, was done so with greater strength. We’re seeing rising wedges form on the MACD and PMO indicators, suggesting that we may see the next price spike break out to new highs this year, with much higher force behind it, sending equity prices on the SPX plunging. (more…)

SPX:VIX Ratio: “Major Conflict Zone” Awaits

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After today’s dramatic 36-point drop in the SPX, price on the SPX:VIX ratio plunged to the upper edge of a “Major Conflict Zone” and the “Bull/Bear Line-in-the-Sand” level, as shown on the Monthly ratio chart below.

A drop and hold below this critical 150 major support level will seal the fate of increased volatility and lower prices for the SPX. The Momentum indicator has also fallen below the zero level, confirming that instability is in store for this index, for the longer term, if it stays below zero.

Each candle on the following ratio chart of SPX:VIX represents a period of One Quarter. (more…)

Markets Love Big Round Numbers

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Just a “heads up” on the following Major U.S. Indices:

  • Dow 30 above 22,000 (keep an eye on the Dow leaders and laggards for clues to continued strength or weakness)
  • S&P 500 approaching 2500
  • S&P 100 approaching 1100
  • Nasdaq 100 approaching 6000 (has just over 100 points to go, but keep an eye on the powerhouse FAANG tech stocks, which are currently stuck in consolidation mode, for either breakouts or breakdowns)

(more…)

FYI Aug. 4/17: Dow 30 Leaders & Laggards

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You can see at a glance, from the chart grid below, which of the Dow 30 stocks are outperforming (AAPL, AXP, BA, CAT, JPM, KO, MCD, MSFT, NKE, TRV, UNH, V and WMT) and which ones are underperforming (GE, IBM and XOM).

We’ll see if the laggards (and ones not mentioned above) turn around anytime soon to continue to drive the Dow to new highs, as I mentioned in yesterday’s post, or whether the leaders suddenly weaken…and, if so, with what force.

Source: Stockcharts.com

What’s Next for the Dow 30 Index?

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My post of January 25th on the Dow 30 Index mentioned that price had reached 20,000, in spite of negative rhetoric from media pundits and some investors about an imminent implosion of markets under President Trump’s economic agenda in the months leading up to the presidential election and to that date.

Yesterday, the Dow 30 broke and closed above 22,000 for the first time, setting another all-time record high. As you can see from the Monthly chart below, price has now hit the top of a long-term uptrending channel from the 2009 lows. So far, markets seem unfazed by the ongoing political gridlock and machinations in Washington. (more…)

Gridlock in Washington and the Impact on Equity Markets

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Gridlock in Washington (with the utter failure to pass any kind of new healthcare reform) is the theme, so far, in 2017…with Republicans unable to agree to support their party’s latest bill, which is now completely dead, and Democrats simply obstructing everything in sight.

It looks like everyone is tired and unable to do what they were elected to do.

If everyone’s tired, how will this failure affect the progress of any other political items that President Trump has on his agenda?

(more…)