Author Archives: Strawberry Blonde

SPX Hits 2600 as Social Chaos Churns

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I last wrote about the SPX:VIX ratio in my post of October 25. I mentioned that if price dropped and held below the 200 level, expect volatility to increase and weakness to set in on the SPX…and, that if it failed to do so, we could see the SPX reach 2600 before such a scenario may ensue.

Since that date, we’ve seen the SPX stabilize somewhat, bounce around above 2560, and, finally, reach 2600 today (Tuesday), as shown on the Daily chart below.

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Small Caps & High Yield Corporate Bonds Hint of Higher Volatility Ahead

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As can be seen on the Daily comparison chart and percentage-gained graph below, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) and the High Yield Corporate Bonds ETF (HYG) generally trade lock-step, although the RUT is accompanied by more volatility and larger swings.

At the moment, the RSI and MACD indicators are hinting of lower prices ahead for HYG and volumes have spiked over the past few days.

We’ll see if volatility ramps up and whether any significant weakness hits both of these in the near term…particularly as U.S. Republicans battle to reform and cut taxes before the end of the year. (more…)

Bearish “Shooting Star” Forming on BITCOIN

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Further to my last post of October 20 and update of November 2, a bearish “Shooting Star” candle formation is in the making on this Monthly chart of BITCOIN…warning signs that we could see a further sell-off to, potentially, the 5000 level, which is the nearest major support level, or even lower to 3000, the next major support level (last hit on September 15).

Volatility is no stranger to this cryptocurrency, as price has plunged nearly 1700 points in the past four trading days, and I doubt that this will change any time soon. Price is currently trading at 6200 as I write this post on November 11 at 1:45 pm ET.

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WTI Crude Oil Aiming for $65.00

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Further to my prediction at the end of July that WTI Crude Oil may reach $65.00 if it could reach and hold above the 55.00 level, this update will confirm that such a scenario is still a possibility, even though it’s now three months later and we’ve seen a rise in volatility, as price has bounced around in a $10.00 range since then. As I write this post Sunday evening, it’s finally hovering above 55.00.

As can be noted on the Monthly chart below, I’d say that a retest of the bearish (monthly) Moving Average Death Cross around 65.00 is imminent and that momentum currently favours the bulls — particularly in light of the Saudi purge that is underway, as well as recent military activity that’s occurring in that region — and as illustrated by the recent bullish (daily) Moving Average Golden Cross that has formed on the Daily timeframe (see second chart below). (more…)

Spain’s Ibex 35 Index Mired in Long-Term Congestion Zone

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In the midst of political and social uncertainty surrounding the recent referendum in Catalonia to separate from the rest of Spain and Prime Minister Rajoy’s aim to stop it, Spain’s Ibex 35 Index has been faltering, as shown on both the longer-term Monthly chart and the short-term Daily chart below.

Longer term, price ran into major resistance in the form of a downtrend line and a 50% Fib retracement level. It’s currently hovering above the 40% Fib level. So far, neither the Momentum nor the ROC indicators are showing that higher prices are in store for this index on this timeframe.

Shorter term, a bearish moving average Death Cross has formed and price closed just below both of them on Friday. So far, the RSI, MACD and PMO indicators are not hinting of higher prices to come any time soon.

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New “SELL” Signal Triggered on Weekly SPX:VIX Ratio

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I last wrote about the SPX:VIX ratio in my post of October 17. At the time, volatility was creeping higher, as the SPX was making new highs.

As of 2:00 pm today (Wednesday), volatility has continued to rise, as the ratio dropped to just above the critical 200 “New Bull Market” level, as shown on the following SPX:VIX Monthly ratio chart.

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