Author Archives: Strawberry Blonde

2nd Quarter Indecision on SPX:VIX Ratio

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Each candle on the following chart of the SPX represents a period of one quarter. Much of the action on the current Q2 candle has occurred above the top one-quarter of Q1, and price is hovering above its close of 2362.72.

The Momentum indicator has been sluggish since July 2014 on this timeframe, likely caused by the rise in volatility, large price swings and inability of this index to gain traction, until its breakout two years later.

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Money Flow for May Week 3, 2017

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From the Year-to-date comparison chart below of the 4 Major Indices, it’s easy to see that the Nasdaq 100 Index has led this year’s equity rally by a wide margin, while the Russell 2000 Index is, essentially flat, after a couple of foiled attempts to gain any traction.

If the aim of President Trump’s proposed health care plan, deregulation on businesses, tax cuts, and tax reform is to help small business owners, market players don’t seem to be buying into that because of their rejection of small-cap stocks, so far, this year, as also depicted on the Year-to-date graph of the 9 Major Indices below. (more…)

SPX Gap Fills, Political Chaos & 3 Trillion Dollars

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Further to yesterday’s post, the SPX has filled one prior gap up (in between the blue lines) and is currently filling a second (in between the red lines) (both made in the latter part of April), as shown on the following Daily chart.

At the moment, near-term support sits somewhere around 2320 (price support) to 2338 (external Fibonacci support shown in yesterday’s chart).

A drop and hold below 2320 could see a swift plunge to 2250, or lower and may be influenced by a major change in market perception of Washington’s ability (or inability) to function and produce any meaningful progress on the kinds of economic stimulus programs, tax cuts and reforms, etc., as promised by politicians during last year’s election and, on which, market players were counting, as they invested heavily from that time…particularly, as the Fed reduces its monetary stimulus measures and continues raising interest rates. (more…)

Perception, Persuasion, Repetition and Opportunity

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The amount of negative press coverage emanating from Washington in relation to President Trump since his election last November has been relentless and, at times, apoplectic. This is simply my unbiased observation, as I do not condone or condemn any of it.

So far, the equity markets have ignored the rants from the media and political opponents. The SPX is hovering at all-time highs, as shown on the following Monthly chart, and has gained 12.2% since the election, as shown on the percentages-gained graph below of the Major Indices. (more…)