Author Archives: Strawberry Blonde

Will the SPX Reach 2600?

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I last wrote about the SPX:VIX ratio on September 30.

Price action on the Monthly ratio chart below shows an inability, so far, for volatility to be held at bay, while the SPX continues to make new highs, almost daily.

It has failed to hold, with conviction, above the 250 level and advance above its next resistance level, which is a 161.8% external Fibonacci level at 280.

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Third Down…One To Go: 2017 Q4 Looms for U.S. Equities

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The following charts and graphs present a simplified birds-eye view of how the S&P 500 Index, and its volatility, performed in Q3 of 2017, as well as year-to-date.

But, first, a look at the Major Indices and 9 Major Sectors and how they have fared year-to-date and during Q3

MAJOR INDICES

Eight of the nine Major Indices, namely, the Dow 30, Dow Transports, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000, S&P 100, and Nasdaq Transportation Indices closed out Q3 at or near all-time highs, as shown on the following 1-Year Daily charts. (more…)

Will the Dow Jones US Retail REITs Index Recover From Its 34% Decline?

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After dramatically dropping 34% from its historical high of 151.85 from mid-2016 to a low of 99.98 in May of this year, the Dow Jones US Retail REITs Index has been stuck in a sideways trading range and is attempting to maintain a stable position above a long-term 40% Fib retracement level of 102.42, as shown on the following MonthlyWeekly and Daily charts.

Longer term, the Monthly momentum and rate of change technical indicators are hinting of further weakness.

In the medium term, the Weekly momentum and rate of change technical indicators are hinting of potential strength. (more…)

A Volatile 2017 Q4 Awaits US Equities

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Further to my post of September 25 (regarding GOP legislation failures), watch for an increase in volatility and a potential rotation out of equities (SPX) and into commodities (GOLD and OIL) and currencies (US Dollar) for Q4 of 2017.

With respect to volatility, watch for a potential “SELL” signal to form on the RSI, MACD and PMO technical indicators, as price whipsaws in between major resistance at 250 and major support at 200, as shown on the following SPX:VIX ratio chart.

SPX:VIX Daily Ratio chart

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