Author Archives: Strawberry Blonde

The “Squeeze” in the Gold Miners ETF

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Price on the following GDX Monthly chart is currently being squeezed in between major resistance of a 23.6% Fib retracement level and a recent breakout above a long-term downtrend line.

We’ll see if it continues to rally — maybe to 30.00 or even 33.00 — but there is a lot of overhead price supply, so that could be quite a long shot. I’d like to see Money Flow firm up on any further advancement, as that indicator is currently in downtrend on this longer timeframe.

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“Shock Event” for 3 Top Insurance ETFs

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Price on three top Insurance ETFs has been dropping since mid-August, as shown on the following Daily charts of IAKKBWP and KIE. In the process, they made some extreme lower swing lows on each of their respective three technical indicators, suggesting that further weakness lies ahead.

As of Friday’s close, they are trading around their 200-day moving averages, so failure to regain an upward bias from that level could spell further sharp drops for these ETFs. Watch for any major volume spikes on further weakness to indicate possible panic selling. In the short term, we may, first, see a retest of their 50-day moving average (possible “Dead Cat Bounce”) before the next leg down occurs. (more…)

Financial ETF Still Churning After Failed Breakout

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I last wrote about the Financial ETF (XLF) on July 11th.

Since then, it failed to hold a brief breakout above the 25.00 major resistance level (convergence of 40% Fib retracement and upper channel), as shown on the following Monthly chart.

Price is sitting at the bottom of the upper quarter of a long-term uptrending channel…a segment that it hasn’t typically remained in for very long, or ventured above, since it began its long ascent from its 2009 lows after the financial crisis. (more…)

Tech Sector Close to Forming a “SELL” Signal

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The Technology ETF (XLK)  is close to forming a “SELL” signal. Two of the three technical indicators on the Daily chart below have done so, as of Friday’s close, while the RSI threatens to join the MACD and PMO if it crosses below the 50 level. Price action this week, following its all-time high made last Friday, has been overly bearish.

Watch for a potential retest of the 50-day moving average around 57.00, or lower to, even, the 200 MA around 53.00, on signs of escalating weakness.

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S&P 500 Index: Momentum is Waning

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The momentum and rate of change indicators have been making a series of lower highs since July 2016 on the Weekly timeframe of the SPX, as shown below. Price has been climbing along the underbelly of a trajectory (beginning in August 2015) set from the 2009 lows to this year’s highs, as shown on the following Monthly chart.

This is the reality, as the next major (potentially) catastrophic and costly storm (Hurricane Irma) is predicted to hit the U.S. in the next few days. Add this fact to the latest provocations by North Korea, as well as to a gridlocked and divided Congress, along with stagnant wage growth, and it’s difficult to endorse sound reasons for a higher stock market in the coming days/weeks.

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