I’m very proud of this. What a beauty! I’m referring to everything except for the gastropod on the lower-left.
We are ready to enter into a 7 week weak period if you give credence to the cycles of the market. Presidential election years have a rhythm, and it is telling us to short this market until mid June. Take some summer profits and short this sucker again, and this year could be a doozy (spell check wanted me to replace with boozy, hmm) as it is the weakest start of a presidential cycle in a long time.
I used to be a bigger fan of analogs than I am these days, but they still intrigue me. I’ve noticed on some other sites, the notion that the start of 2016 is similar to the start of 2008 has been bandied about. Here’s the basic thrust of the argument………..
You may not believe it, based on the silly skirmish we had a couple of years ago, but Northman Trader and I are constant chat companions. (On days like this, he’s the only person who’s able to keep me from going totally insane). He’s been following an analog for a while which has been amazing in its prescience. Here it is (click on it for a large version).
Of course, my hope at this point is that the analog keeps working. In any case, thank you to Northy for allowing me to share this image.
The title is a paraphrase of “the scariest gold chart in the world” (target below $400) someone sent me in 2009, just before the gold price began its $900 per ounce upward journey. So that’s the contrarian caveat and indeed, I hesitate to write bearish things at a time when small speculators are way too short the market and everybody already seems to know how bearish things are.
But the chart is the chart and without further ado, meet the scariest US stock market chart in the world. I was ready to try a long on the SPY yesterday, but decided to wait because of this (being posted here because it never made it into NFTRH 381’s already bloated 42 pages) chart and some others in the face of which I just could not rationalize a bullish stance. Capital preservation is job 1 now, not bullish speculation. I’ll let the bulls prove something first.
In my post of January 8, 2012, there was much talk of a potential recession coming to Canada.
Since then, you can see from the 5-Year comparison chart below of Canada’s TSX and EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), that they have traded, essentially, lock-step. Both are in bear markets since their highs in September 2014 — the TSX is -20.8% and EEM is -33.79%.