Category Archives: Analogs

Bitcoin and the South Sea

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One of the earliest chapters in my Panic, Prosperity, and Progress book is about the South Sea Bubble. I know I’m not the first chap to compare the insane Bitcoin bubble (which is rapidly deflating) with South Sea, but I am truly struck by the similarities. Here’s what happened with South Sea, four centuries ago………(the notations about Newton relate to Sir Isaac Newton’s own investing losses with this “security”:). I’ve put an arrow approximating where I think we are right now with respect to the Bitcoin analog……… (more…)

Russell’s Recovery

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It’s a real shame what happened to the Russell 200 chart today. After a terribly encouraging break in a vitally-important wedge (see green tint), the index fell as it should, then it started to recover. The recovery was terribly strong – - so strong, in fact, that it got back ABOVE the broken support line and challenged the lifetime high (see magenta tint). I’m afraid there’s pretty much no hope at this point for the bears. Game over. (more…)

Hammer Time

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After the hard break down through the weekly middle bollinger band on SPX on Monday, a series of lower downside targets opened up and I spent some time assessing the relative merits of those. However on a weekly candlestick, as with all candlesticks, the most important data points are the open and the close, and last week’s candle closed on Friday in the green, and back above the weekly middle band, delivering a very nice looking bullish white hammer candle. All of the action under the weekly middle band was therefore intraweek and on a weekly closing basis the middle band held as support. That bullish candle is a bottoming/reversing candlestick, albeit one that needs confirmation the following week. SPX weekly chart: (more…)