Category Archives: Analogs

Do You Want to Know a Secret?

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I hate tech bubbles.

No, that’s not the secret. Everyone knows that. The secret I am referring to is a company named, literally, Secret. And the existence of this company, as well as the easy $6 million its co-founders pocketed when they shuttered the place, is absolutely symptomatic of this bubble-of-bubbles we are living in (the third one of the past fifteen years, incredibly).

I didn’t even know Secret existed, because I’m too old to spend my time worrying about every new little app that comes along that lets teenagers engage in cyber-bullying and exchange  dick pics. It’s just not my cup of tea. But I happened to stumble across this article yesterday, which was headlined:

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Now a startup shutting down isn’t any bigger news than someone finishing a satisfying lunch somewhere, but the “Ferrari” mention intrigued me, so I read further.

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The Alcoa Analog

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I’ve pointed out in prior videos the incredible similarities Alcoa (symbol AA) has been painting on its chart recently compared to the prior peak in 2007. This is continuing to play itself out beautifully, with the prospect of much lower prices to come not just over the next few hours, but perhaps years:

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Duck, Duck, Goose

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Wednesdays before expiration (especially on FOMC days) are special days.

Volume is split between 2 contracts.  We have stops getting killed on both sides of indecision, and then a lot of chop, chop, slam….  chop, chop, slam….  It reminds me of the old Duck, Duck, Goose game.  Only this time, retail stops are left holding the bag and can’t find a chair or get a break.

The witching hour appears to be the hour going into oil pit close.

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Still Crude: EIA, EIA, oh

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Old MacDonald had an oil farm, E-I-A, E-I-A, Oh!
With a stop run here and a stop run there,
here a stop, there a stop, everywhere a retail stop, E-I-A, E-I-A, Oh!

Wednesdays are Prince Spaghetti Day.  They are also when the US Energy Information Administration releases its weekly petroleum status and crude oil inventories (except during holiday weeks).  Check out the last 3 EIA news scam days.

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