Category Archives: Analogs

Alcoa Analog Takes a Twist

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The Alcoa Analog (read about it here) was one of the cleanest trades I’ve suggested all year. It preceded a virtually uninterrupted plunge lower. I assumed that once it reached its long-term trendline, it would find support and gain strength. Nope – check out the chart below. The price fell well below the trendline, and, wouldn’t you know it, the trendline is now acting as resistance. It looks like Alcoa is going to remain quite ill.

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Snake Oil Sales

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The best thing about weekly scheduled “news” events is that they can offer volatility and entertainment.  The worst thing is that unsuspecting retailers regarding them as actual “news” and don’t recognize news events and scheduled releases for the scams that they truly are.

This week’s exhibit in the you-can’t-make-this-stuff-up category is none other than light, sweet, and lately crude West Texas Intermediate.

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The Bumpy Season is Upon Us

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As all know my specialty is the Volatility Trade, and the weekly chart gives me a good view of the climate.  It looks like it is paralleling last year somewhat.  I am looking at three more weeks of this, and maybe a SPY visit down to  the 190’s.  Then expect a late summer rally into mid September, for a nice fall swoon.  However, I will let my charts and signals guide me though. (more…)

The Air We Breathe

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A few years ago, I was chatting with an acquaintance of mine who happens to be pretty rich. I don’t know the exact figure, but his net worth was probably something like $80 million. He was definitely in “ultra-high net worth” territory and quite obviously never needed to work another day in his life.

He was bemoaning to me the fact that if he hadn’t sold his energy company so early, he would be “a billionaire by now.” My heart didn’t exactly ache for the guy, but his complaint (which these days I think is referred to as a “humblebrag“) made an impression.

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