Category Archives: Analogs

The Bumpy Season is Upon Us

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As all know my specialty is the Volatility Trade, and the weekly chart gives me a good view of the climate.  It looks like it is paralleling last year somewhat.  I am looking at three more weeks of this, and maybe a SPY visit down to  the 190’s.  Then expect a late summer rally into mid September, for a nice fall swoon.  However, I will let my charts and signals guide me though. (more…)

The Air We Breathe

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A few years ago, I was chatting with an acquaintance of mine who happens to be pretty rich. I don’t know the exact figure, but his net worth was probably something like $80 million. He was definitely in “ultra-high net worth” territory and quite obviously never needed to work another day in his life.

He was bemoaning to me the fact that if he hadn’t sold his energy company so early, he would be “a billionaire by now.” My heart didn’t exactly ache for the guy, but his complaint (which these days I think is referred to as a “humblebrag“) made an impression.

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Do You Want to Know a Secret?

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I hate tech bubbles.

No, that’s not the secret. Everyone knows that. The secret I am referring to is a company named, literally, Secret. And the existence of this company, as well as the easy $6 million its co-founders pocketed when they shuttered the place, is absolutely symptomatic of this bubble-of-bubbles we are living in (the third one of the past fifteen years, incredibly).

I didn’t even know Secret existed, because I’m too old to spend my time worrying about every new little app that comes along that lets teenagers engage in cyber-bullying and exchange  dick pics. It’s just not my cup of tea. But I happened to stumble across this article yesterday, which was headlined:

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Now a startup shutting down isn’t any bigger news than someone finishing a satisfying lunch somewhere, but the “Ferrari” mention intrigued me, so I read further.

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The Alcoa Analog

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I’ve pointed out in prior videos the incredible similarities Alcoa (symbol AA) has been painting on its chart recently compared to the prior peak in 2007. This is continuing to play itself out beautifully, with the prospect of much lower prices to come not just over the next few hours, but perhaps years:

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