Indulge me in a bit of a thought experiment.
Let’s say there was a fellow here in Palo Alto named Brad. He told me that he had invented the world’s perfect tiger repellant. He simply sprayed it on, and voila, no tigers would bother him.
This was intriguing to me, because I had, in turn, created a tiger attractant. My claim was that this invisible spray would attract tigers from several miles away.
The trouble was, my spray just didn’t seem to work. Try as I might, no tigers ever appeared. Not even once. Back when I was roaming around Indonesia and Sumatra, tigers would show up all the time. But here in Palo Alto, it just didn’t work anymore. (more…)
Just as “orange is the new black”, I think that “oil producers are the new gold miners.” It doesn’t sound quite as good, but here’s my point:
I’ve written before about the failing shelves of support with various commodities. Silver led the way in mid-September……
Way back on August 30, I did a post called Past Fear, Present Fear, which offered up an analog of the VIX (please read it if you don’t remember; it’s a pretty good post). I would daresay it was one of the best posts I did in 2014, and things certainly unfolded as I hoped they would (although today was no fun for me). I followed up on October 9th with my Moment of Truth post, which was just before the markets started really falling hard. Thus – so far, so good. (more…)
Greetings from Palo Alto. Over three years (and thousands of posts……) ago, I wrote Color and the Mania in This Valley. The thrust of my post was:
+ Color.com had received $41 million to develop an app;
+ The app sucked out loud;
+ The company deserved to fail.
Well, fail it did (as I announced in the 4th post I did about the stupid place), and in those three+ years, the bubble has just continued to inflate. 2014 makes 2011 seem downright sensible. (more…)
I was looking at the entire history of the volatility index (the oft-cited “VIX’) and found an interesting parallel. Take note of this chart
This will be the shortest post ever……….a trading friend of mine just wrote me and shared this interesting article called The 64-Month Bubble Pattern. It matches almost exactly the thoughts I was offering in my Six Six Six post from last night. The funny thing is that I didn’t set out writing the post with a conclusion already in mind. I was merely curious, and I counted out the months and was a bit shocked to find such a similarity. Anyway, check out the aforementioned article, since it’s a pretty cool correlate to my own (independent! honestly!) thinking.