In the nearly thirteen years that I’ve been writing Slope of Hope, perhaps the most ironic post (out of over 20,000) was one I did last January called Bitcoin’s Massive Bullish Base. The reason it’s ironic is because Slope is largely dedicated to seeking out short-selling ideas for stocks, whereas the post was about going long a cryptocurrency. Only ten months and eight-hundred percent later, It turned out to be the greatest trade idea in the blog’s history, which actually doesn’t feel that great for the reason just cited.
Preface to chart posts for this weekend: Instead of doing a bunch of videos, I decided to show static charts created, of course, with SlopeCharts (which you should use – – hint, hint). I am allocating most of these ideas to my Slope Plus subscribers. What these charts all have in common is (1) they are all “live” short positions in my portfolio (2) the patterns should be fairly self-explanatory. What’s unique about this particular set is that they are all based on analogs:
The one consistent theme I’m reading about these days……..and I’m certainly inclined to agree with it……..is the puzzlement about the complacency with respect to a forthcoming change in Fed policy. In other words, the “great unwind” of $4.5 trillion in assets the Fed has gorged upon during the past eight years. Tomorrow is the big day, and as I suggested yesterday, things are going to be boring until then (as we collectively observed the changes of a few hundredths of a point across our computer monitors).
Anyway, in an effort to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear, I offer you the chart below (which, as always, you can click for a bigger version). It offers up a parallel, or analog, if you like, with respect to financial stocks. I’ve got November puts against the XLF. It will be interesting, to say the least, to see what effect the Fed’s big announcement on Wednesday at 2 p.m. has on equities in general and financials in particular.
Anyone else feeling the summer doldrums? I am. It can vary from day to day. Yesterday, for instance, seemed like kind of a kick. Today was three letters: M, E, and H. Oh, well. There’s just not much going on. Earnings season hasn’t started, and the political scene just has boring nonsense like this Trump/Russia thing, whose bombshell news today rocked the market for about seven minutes.
In spite of all the ho-hum, I’d like to offer up one chart that kind of grabbed me: the financials ETF. As you can see below, there’s quite a compelling analog happening (click the chart to see a bigger, easier-to-read version). Hopefully the simple colored lines and arrows on this SlopeChart speak for themselves………
I have mentioned Finish Line (FINL) again and again and……….again!………as a short candidate, both here on Slope and on tastytrade. Well, the analog I’ve pointed out ad nauseum is really kicking in, dropping nearly 20% on Friday alone.
As is so often the case, my charting was brilliant and my trading was idiotic. I covered this thing earlier in the week for reasons I cannot fathom or even remember. I guess I’m simply the ghey. But in spite of my personal idiocy, I am pleased to have offered up another terrific plunger. Much lower prices to come.
I’ve mentioned Abercrombie & Fitch repeatedly in years past as a great long-term short candidate, and it’s unfolded beautifully. Take a look at how, almost incredibly, the stock has come full circle to its financial crisis lows. Given the extraordinarily lofty state of the market in general, however, I think this stock isn’t done falling.