On a percentage basis, this is my second-best performing short (second only to EZPW). I’m just crazy about this analog. I can see much, much lower prices ahead.
I’ll be the first to admit, if you asked me Tuesday, I’d say the odds of this were about zero.
As the VIX got pounded back into the sub-teens today, it occurred to me to compare the present activity to the period preceding the financial crisis. What I found was interesting. The chart below (click it for a much bigger version) shows 2003-2007 on the top and recent history on the bottom. You may notice a lot of similarities between the top and bottom, and I’ve drawn a red line at the top showing the equivalent of “right now”.
It’s a pretty quiet morning, except for the 3,893th rumor about some kind of OPEC agreement (which, again, was dismissed). Glancing at small cap equities, it’s startling how swiftly they undid the damage from two Fridays ago (tinted below):