There are plenty of things I like about a market like the one we are in right now, which is one of unchecked pandemonium.
There’s the profits, of course. It’s really gratifying to see my assets grow so swiftly.
The vindication of being right feels good, naturally. Having virtually every single prediction unfold as reality so swiftly is like a tall drink of water in the desert compared to the past nine years. I have 73 different short positions, and every last one of them is in the green (some of them massively so).
And since my trading life is tied directly to my little business, I get “icing on the cake” by having subscriptions to Slope PLUS go roaring higher.
In the soundtrack of my life, I’ve had songs from Hamilton occur with increasing frequency. One particular piece, Wait For It, resonates most clearly where I feel I am in my trading life. Specifically:
Death doesn’t discriminate
Between the sinners
And the saints
It takes and it takes and it takes
And we keep living anyway
We rise and we fall
And we break
And we make our mistakes
And if there’s a reason I’m still alive
When everyone who loves me has died
I’m willing to wait for it
Quite the morning so far, eh? It’s only 7:20, and I’m ready to call it a day. All this mayhem, honestly, I could do without.
Here’s where I am at:
Have trimmed from 200% short Monday morning to maybe 75% short now. In other words, I’m not even using all my cash buying power. I am still “in the game” with 30 shorts, but I’ve definitely pulled WAY back.
I have watched with some dismay at some of the puts I sold yesterday leap another 40-60%, but what can ya do. Hey, at least my entire net worth isn’t in XIV, right?
I now have to do what I am absolutely awful at, which is be patient. The market is going to be very skittish now, so a “fight back” to decent shorting levels isn’t going to easy.
Importantly, Dennis Gartman called for a big bear market last night (around the lowest levels of GLOBEX trading, naturally), so that gives me some confidence I’ve made the right choice.
Good morning, Slopers. Let’s do a bit of odds and ends from top-of-mind:
NEW RECORD in usage for SlopeCharts. I seriously don’t know why anyone would use anything else. It is all I ever use. Ever. And it’s getting better all the time. We added some cool new features this weekend, but, ummm, current events have precluded from me announcing them.
I woke up about every two hours last night. At one point, both ES and NQ were green, so I figured some dumb-ass announcement had been made. They’re quite red again, so I guess not.
I haven’t mentioned it yet, but yesterday I bought puts again the EUR/USD. It’s a nice, clean trade and away from the madcap insanity we’re witnessing in equities.
I have mentioned repeatedly, especially on tastytrade, how my target price for a Bitcoin low (for now, at least) would be $6,000. NAILED IT! So do I get to wear a fuzzy wig now?
The VIX was at an 8-handle a month ago. Now it’s around 50, for the first time since the glorious days of early 2009. Can you freaking BELIEVE it? And the hydrogen bomb that’s been dropping on VIX shorts has been just astounding to watch. Historic!
Probably the key thing I have to say is this, and mark my words: the Republicans are going to get completely destroyed in the mid-terms. Yeah, I know the election is nine months away, and I know a lot can happen in nine months. But this nine-year bull market is DEAD, and that will still be evident by November.
Just Trust your friend Tim. The Trump revolution is over. And I say this not from a partisan standpoint, because I really couldn’t care less who won in 2016. Both of them sucked.
This is a shameless comment cleaner, but I got up even earlier than normal this morning with the same big-ass Nikon lens I got last August’s eclipse with and photographed the blood blue moon. I think the heavens have conspired to celebrate Yellen’s departure.
In these incredibly racially-sensitive times, I was reflecting upon how the commercials I saw on television when I was a kid would never see the light of day in more modern times. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the racist-against-black commercials were pretty much gone (Aunt Jemima and Uncle Ben’s notwithstanding) but Asians were still boxed into some fairly ridiculous forms. Here’s one everyone remembers:
Growing up during the Cold War as I did, my impression of places like Hungary and Czechoslovakia was that they were grey, oppressed, and full of unhappy people glumly plowing their way through life. Now that we live on a more-or-less entirely capitalist planet, it’s interesting to visit former regions of what had been the U.S.S.R. and see what it’s like.
I’ve spent the past few days in Slovakia, a place I’d never been before, nor had ever anticipated visiting. Here are a few off-the-cuff impressions I’ve had from my brief time here: (more…)