That which hath been is now; and that which is to be hath already been; and God requireth that which is past. – Ecclesiastes 3:15
I was mulling over for something to write about, and my eyes landed on the spine of the book The Fourth Turning, which is included in Slope’s Recommended Reading list. As I started thumbing through the book (already copiously highlighted by me), I wondered if I had already written on Slope about it. It turns out, yep, I did so twice – – first in August 2012, and second a couple of years after that. Hey, with over 20,000 posts on Slope, I’m entitled to forget.
If you’re interested in the book, I’d suggest checking out those two prior posts, but I’ll just say in brief that the book (written in 1997) contends that a “millennial crisis” will start in 2005, plus or minus a few years, and will last about twenty-five years from then. I daresay the authors would now agree that the 9/11 attacks constitute the “event” kicking off this fourth wave. As I’ve mentioned, the moment I saw the second plane hit, the first words out of my mouth to my wife were, “This changes everything.” Now, sixteen years later, I’d say that was true. (more…)
I’d like to do what I guess could be considered a flash sale of my latest book, which is described on the liner notes thus: “Making copious use of charts and basic technical analysis, Knight demonstrates how external shocks tend to create extreme reactions in the financial markets and how these predictable reactions provide opportunities for investors and traders to profit. Knight traverses five centuries of financial market history, from Tulipmania in the 1600s to the contemporary sovereign debt crisis. He looks at each event from the prism of the financial markets, examining the market climate prior to the event, during the event, and following the event.”
Good morning, everyone. I wanted to apologize that I’m going to be in absentia for the trading day, as I have some important family business to attend to (if any outside contributors want to put up a draft, great, because I’ll probably find a spare moment to post it).
In the meantime, I wanted to offer up a book review of A Rabble of Dead Money, recently published and written by Charles Morris, an esteemed economic historian. It describes itself on the cover as about “The Great Crash and Global Depression: 1929-1939”, but the vast majority of the book is about the period prior the the depression itself.
For me , the book was a “10” for about 60% of the text and a “5 to 6” for the other 40%. The problem isn’t the writing – – Mr. Morris is an engaging writer with an exhaustive vocabulary and deeply-researched scholarship. The reason a big chunk of the book was, for me, skimmable, was that it focused so much on international economic data such as trade deficits, national account balances, currency exchange rates, and, more than any other topic, the gold standard.
Greetings from – where else? – the Las Vegas Centurion Lounge, where I’m enjoying butternut squash soup, pecan rice, and Brussels sprouts. One of my beloved children just declared to me, without prompting, “I don’t like it here (that is, Las Vegas). It goes against everything I stand for.” So……..no paternity test needed.
Anyway. Back on February 1st, I did a post called A Fool and His Money, which was a fairly epic post, partly about a chap who called himself “Yolowolf” who ostensibly lost a $2.5 million inheritance with really horrible “trading.” If you haven’t read the post, please do, as it’s quite good.
Disclosure (which I feel, given the post’s content, should be reiterated): I am not short even a single equity of any kind. I am only long selected stocks and cash at this time, but surely subject to a change of status in the future.
Why, did you know that in a note to clients Tom Lee wrote that Donald Trump’s term could usher in major bull market akin to those preceded by Ike and Reagan? He did, in a note to clients and the MSM really wants you to know about it! Now, there is a case that eventually his favored areas of Energy, Mining, Basic Materials, etc. will out perform. But that word “eventually” is an important one, unless you are a died in the wool trickle downer willing to ride the big correction or bear market that is likely first.
Trump win could produce major bull market – here’s what I’m buying
“Notably, the two longest bull markets in history 1953-1974 and 1982-1999 were preceded by a Republican ‘revolution,’” he wrote.
Lee likened Trump to the Republican presidents in this way; Eisenhower in the early 1950s invested in infrastructure, and Reagan pursued tax cuts and deregulation, Lee wrote, much like what Trump has promised to carry out in his presidency.
About a week ago, I saw a tweet from someone who was praising a new book I hadn’t heard about called Chaos Monkeys: Obscene Fortune and Random Failure in Silicon Valley. Needless to say, I was interested, so I had it shipped straightaway to my hotel in Dallas.