The alternate asymmetric double top targets on ES were at 2178.5 or 2181, and the current low at 2184 is a fairly close miss of both. The pattern setup here though is suggesting that the retracement low is probably already in. Hopefully some of you saw me mention that on twitter just after the open.
The pattern on ES was a very nice falling megaphone that broke up on the opening spike. This is the kind of setup that strongly suggests that the low is in barring a possible retest to set up a bottoming pattern of some kind. Is it possible that the megaphone is evolving into a larger pattern? Yes, but historically it would be a bad idea to hold your breath waiting for another leg down that wasn’t just into a low retest or marginal new low. ES Dec 60min chart:
Bears managed to do some damage yesterday and the retracement I was projecting is in progress. I was calling the final pattern targets on my premarket video that I posted for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net this morning before the open. The charts I was showing in the video are below and I’m looking at where each index is respectively in terms of their pattern target.
The final pattern on ES is a double top looking for 2178.5 on a sustained break below 2196.25. The current LOD is at 2187.50, so there still should be another nine handles of downside to make the target. That may be tomorrow though of course. ES Dec 60min chart:
I mentioned last night on twitter that at the end of the day there was an unusual situation where ES was holding the weekly pivot there as solid support, and TF had established the weekly pivot as solid resistance. This is a rarity and can’t last long unless they just chop sideways together.
ES built on that weekly pivot support to make a new all time high this morning. Was that bullish? No, as there is nothing inherently bullish about a high retest. Every double top setup requires one and they aren’t bullish. The thing I was watching was what TF was doing with the weekly pivot there ………ES Dec 60min chart:
My expectations for the bears yesterday weren’t high, but they put in a decent showing, and they have a chance today and tomorrow to deliver some extremely overdue retracement. Tomorrow is the only day this week that leans bearish historically, in part or mainly because it is the frequently bearish last trading day of the month. Obviously Thursday leans bullish as the first day of the month.
The main chart that I’m watching here is the TF chart, and a decent quality H&S has formed there looking for the 1307 area on a sustained break below yesterday’s low at 1327.50. Since I capped that chart TF has backtested the weekly pivot, completed the H&S pattern and is now testing the neckline. Unless TF breaks back over the weekly pivot at 1335.8, my working assumption is that the H&S will play out. TF Dec 60min chart:
I christened a new TA setup in yesterday’s Chart Chat and I’ve clipped out the beginning of that to show what I was saying on the ES/SPX, NQ/NDX and TF/RUT charts then. I’m not certain that this innovation will guarantee my elevation to the TA Hall of Fame, but at the least it was funny and you can see that clip here:-) – The Springheel Splodge revelation.
As I am saying in the clip, the bears have something to prove here in terms of showing that this might be a two way market, but there is a retracement coming at some point that should retrace this triangle thrust back to the 2168-70 area and possibly lower. I talk in more detail about the short term setup in the video I recorded this morning. The charts below are the ES, NQ & TF charts I posted for members at theartofchart.net this morning.
ES Dec 60min chart:
The holiday tape has defeated the nice looking retracement setup at the start of the week. There should still be at least some retracement over the next few days, but after a holding like a champ until late yesterday afternoon the decent resistance trendline on RUT finally broke. What there is of the remainder of the week is low volume holiday tape, so it may well be that we won’t see much of interest on the indices before next week, and Monday and Tuesday both lean bullish historically. RUT 60min chart: