Category Archives: Bulls/Bears

Sputter, Sputter, Stall

By -

I guess the old saw about the importance of avoiding politics and religion has a lot of truth to it. Back in the days of our prior Fed chief, when I’d refer to him as “Benjamin Shalom Bernanke”, some guys would get their panties in a wad, even though Shalom really was his middle name. And this morning, after I sent out this tweet…..

0120-tweet

….a couple of folks got worked up that I dare question the temperament of our new leader. So, on the whole, I guess I’ll try to stick to charts (although I’m highly confident the above tweet will be borne out as prescient).

(more…)

Inauguration Day

By -

Stan and I did a webinar on fibonacci retracements and extensions last night at theartofchart.net, and if you would like to see the recording you can find that here. That’s looking very topical this morning as I was showing a number of fibonacci retracements on various timeframes there, and on the ES & TF charts that I did for Daily Video Service members after the webinar, I was talking about the fib retrace levels that ES & TF hit at the lows yesterday. You can see yesterday night’s comments on the charts below of course.

On ES the rising channel broke down in the morning and the LOD was a 50% retracement of the channel. I mentioned that this was a very possible place to start the last leg up if ES could convert the weekly pivot at 2264.75 to support and that’s looking good so far this morning. No ATH retest yet but getting closer. ES Mar 60min chart:

170120 AM ES Mar 60min

(more…)

Rising Channel Established on ES

By -

Boring tape so far this week but the interesting news yesterday on ES was that a rising channel was established from the 2227 low. Channel support is now at 2260.75 and a break below would be bearish. All of ES, NQ & TF are now on weak 60min buy signals, so my lean is that channel support holds and ES has a decent chance of making the all time high retest today or tomorrow, though the tape this week so far has been memorably dull. ES Mar 60min chart:

170119 AM ES Mar 60min

(more…)

Straining at Gnats

By -

Another day of bumping round slightly above the daily middle band so far. A retest of the high is really just a few handles away, but much of the last few weeks have been spent watching SPX repeatedly fail to retest the all time high at the time by a few handles. There’s a nice short term setup on ES to deliver the ATH retest but it remains to be seem whether that will be enough to get us there this week. This may just continue to kick around until after the Inauguration.

As and when the high is made, SPX is due a minimum 3.9% retracement from the punch over the weekly upper band a few weeks ago. That should get SPX much of the way back to rising wedge support, currently in the 2155 area. SPX daily chart:

170118 SPX Daily

(more…)

Testing the Daily Middle Band

By -

On ES I have two high probability setups looking for a retest of the high, which are the bull flag megaphone that has broken up and the failed ATH, though as ever during the last few weeks, crossing the few handles to that retest is taking a while. On SPX this is a backtesting of the daily middle band, which is holding so far. If SPX should break below it and confirm with another close the next day then the high would likely be in, but until then I’m still looking for that ATH retest. SPX daily chart:

170117 SPX Daily

(more…)