Category Archives: Bulls/Bears

Entering The High Window

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The high window opens on SPX today and runs through to Monday 3rd October. During this period Stan and I are expecting to see a very significant high made that would then be followed by a decline that would be considerably larger than the modest retracement just completed. We are looking for a likely full retest of the all time high, with an eye on higher targets in the 2203, 2206/7 and 2210 areas.

On the daily chart SPX confirmed the break back over the daily middle band with another close above it yesterday. This opens a possible test of the daily upper band, currently at 2202. I’d generally expect to see a retest of the middle band from above today or Monday, and that is currently in the 2161 area. SPX daily chart:

160923 SPX Daily

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Lower Highs

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It’s a new day, but more of the same: everything is green. The “soothing” (as ZH put it) Fed has put the world at ease, and everything is being bid up.

I would point out something interesting about this lift, which is that in each case, we are painting out what appears to be another in a succession of lower highs, whether you are looking at crude oil……..

0922-cl

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Unchanged

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Well, today was a drag for the bears (if there are any besides me left in the world), although after 7.5 years of this crap, it should be old hat by now. Even though the Fed changed nothing – – – let me repeat, NOTHING – – the market rallied as if some awesome good news had been dropped into its lap. The NASDAQ went up to its highest level in the history of humanity:

0921-nq

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Resistible Force Stalls At Somnolent Object

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The bulls met both of the targets that I gave them yesterday morning in that the 50 hour MA was converted to support and the close was above the 5dma, so the three day rule expired without a bearish break. Somehow though they managed to do that without inspiring any confidence that this uptrend has real legs. If it has at least some legs then I’d be looking for a test of the daily middle band next, currently at 2162. SPX daily chart:

160920 SPX Daily

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Hemmed-In

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We all continue to wait for the she-devil tomorrow, so I’ll just say the market remains hemmed-in, as shown below in yellow. My dream would be a break around where that circle is, or at least keep us from penetrating into the overhead supply that I’ve tinted in cyan. As I’ve mentioned, I am short but not aggressively so. I don’t plan to get aggressive until the coast is clear from the troll.

0920-oex

The Day That Wasn’t There

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Ummm, so yeah, Slopers, I have pretty much nothing to say about the market that I didn’t already say in my posts this weekend, and here’s why:

0919-spx

So with a market this stuck-in-the-muck, frozen with fear (or excitement) about the blinkered, idiotic Central Bankers that dominate 48 hours (late Tuesday through early Wednesday), this is pretty much just a waiting game and a big waste of time.

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