Category Archives: Bulls/Bears

Weekend Update

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Note from Tim: I wanted to preface this thoughtful post from Rev with something that happens very rarely……..a coupon to Slope Plus for those of you considering it.  I am offering a free month for you to try the service by clicking on this link. When you do, enter the coupon code winter2017 and it will give you the first month for free. (This coupon is only going to be working for a few days, so don’t lollygag). Please note this discount works for ANNUAL subscriptions as well, so you’ll save the most by going for an annual, since you get two months free already.

0225-coupon

Besides all the normal extras you get as a Slope Plus subscriber, you’ll also be getting the very best ideas I’ve got (many of which have been doing really well, even in this market, as you’ll see once you have access). I hope you’ll give it a try. On with the regular post now…………

Happy weekend Slopers!  It has been over a year since I have offered a header post, so let’s take a look at the interesting point markets are currently at.

Starting with SPX, shown below, the markets have been in a slow building parabolic rise since the Brexit lows, continuing their rise off the November election last year, followed by another leg higher to start 2017.  Have we arrived at the short term top, or is there more to come?

The bears certainly had a shot at the end of this past week to end the short term uptrend.  ATR’s short term sell reversal going into next week would be a close under 2353.80.  For those that have been riding the trend higher this year, the next short term sell reversal would be the time to take trading profits.  Until then, using ATR reversals to ride the trend as long as it last is enormously profitable in long lasting short term trends.

SPX

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“When the Pig Tops”

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Note from Tim: I wanted to preface this (typically superb) post from NFTRH with something that happens very rarely.…….a coupon to Slope Plus for those of you considering it.  I am offering a free month for you to try the service by clicking on this link. When you do, enter the coupon code winter2017 and it will give you the first month for free. (This coupon is only going to be working for a few days, so don’t lollygag).

0225-coupon

Besides all the normal extras you get as a Slope Plus subscriber, you’ll also be getting the very best ideas I’ve got (many of which have been doing really well, even in this market, as you’ll see once you have access). I hope you’ll give it a try. On with the regular post now…………

Flying Pig

Filed under the category ‘smartest group of subscribers in the world’, I got an email from NFTRH subscriber Joe F. last week as I was mechanically managing the gold market in my somewhat downplayed, unexciting way…

“You win 9 out of 10 [I don’t, actually], but I think the setup is there for gold to go immediately.”

For a writer of many words over many years, I can sometimes grunt out the most basic of responses…

“When the pig tops.”

The Pig of course, is the US stock market (and many associated global stock markets as well).  Said Pig has slopped, slopped some more and most recently begun actually flying, during its bull phase coming out of last summer’s ‘don’t be short!’ signal at the depths of the Brexit reaction.

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TGIF

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Very nice AM reversal yesterday morning as expected though SPX didn’t manage a full retest of the ATH before a hard reversal overnight. SPX has managed a marginal break of yesterday’s low at the open this morning and has so far filled about half of the opening gap from 2363.81. If that gap fills then I’d expect a retest of the ATH at 2368.26, though that might well be the second high of a small double top, looking at the both RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals that have now fixed on the hourly chart. If the gap doesn’t fill then immediate support is at the open gap from Monday morning at 2351.16, and a fill of that gap might well open up a test of the current price floor in the 2339 area. SPX 60min chart:

170224 SPX 60min

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Some Support Breaks Here

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A new ATH at the open this morning but under the hood there were some telling signs of short term weakness both yesterday and in the subsequent move this morning. Yesterday there were some minor trendline support breaks, on the daily chart SPX failed to test the daily upper band, and some sell signals fixed on the SPX hourly chart. When I was doing this chart though I was looking at key short term support at the perfect rising channel from February 8th at 2360.5, and that has now broken, putting SPX in a likely short term topping process, though Stan and I don’t think that the swing high is in yet. SPX 60min chart:

170223 SPX 60min

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Might Retrace A Bit Here

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The channel resistance break at the open yesterday was a significant break, and there’s no short term reason to think that we are making a sizeable turn here. There is quite a lot of short term negative divergence here though and that might deliver a modest retracement. Double trendline support is currently in the 2356/7 area and if SPX can break below there is a possible gap fill target at 2351.16 or we could see another test of the current price floor in the 2340 area, a strong match with the ES weekly pivot at 2337.75. SPX 60min chart:

170222 SPX 60min

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First 100 Days Since Election… Bullish, Right?

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On the surface, Trump’s 1st 100 days (since election) ‘comp’ well with JFK, as well as Bush 1 and Clinton.  Each of these presidents saw successful markets for the rest of the year.  From data supplied by Bespoke (whose premium service is a good market data source) I created this table showing the S&P 500’s ‘1st 100 days since election’ percentage, the largest decline from a closing high, the next 100 days and the rest of the year (ROY).

Bullish, right?  JKF, Bush 1 and to a lesser degree, Clinton would say so.

presidential 1st 100

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Expletive Repeated

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I made Eagle Scout when I was only thirteen years old. I was confirmed into the Methodist church before that. I was literally a choir boy, as well as an acolyte. And, as a fully consecrated Christian, I say the following in full sight of God almighty: anyone who thinks this market should be bought is out of their fucking mind. Amen.

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