Category Archives: Bulls/Bears

The Flagging Dow Industrials

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Only three charts today as I’ve had a lot on this morning.

One reason I do my optic run views on my seven main US equity indices is because while SPX is often the technical leader, by which I mean not that it moves fastest, but that it is delivering the cleanest trendlines/patterns and fibonacci retracements, that is not always the case. That leader at the moment is the Dow Industrials, and my first two charts will illustrate why that is.

The rising wedge on SPX that I tweeted on Tuesday night hit the very well defined wedge resistance (tweeted at the high yesterday) and then broke down on the frankly very predictable not really news that QE3 had ended in October as planned, and the usual assurances that the Fed would be fighting hard to keep interest rates near zero until the stars fall from the sky. Now those of you who have been looking at my work closely for a while might have wondered why I was giving strong weight to a pattern on SPX that was mediocre due to the poorly defined support trendline, and the answer to that question is of course that ………. SPX 15min chart: (more…)

Now or Never?

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Well, it’s here. Oatmeal Cookie Baking Troll Day is here at last. I’ve got a knot in my stomach that no sailor could ever figure out. To think that our livelihoods are dependent upon this horrid little woman is sickening and sad. But here we are.

I’m watching the Russell 2000 in particular. As we look at its chart, as well as the chart of the small cap leveraged ETF, it seems we are at an important juncture. Of course, Shrew-Monster could kill it, just like she could kill any other chart, but these are the lines that, at present, matter most. (more…)

USD Dollar and FOMC Today

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SPX broke strong resistance levels at the 50 DMA and the 1976-8 level yesterday to close at a very impressive 1985. That break up over the 50 DMA opens up the daily upper band as a target and that closed yesterday at 2003. With FOMC today it seems unlikely that Yellen can say a great deal to cheer the markets, QE3 has ended and is unlikely to be even temporarily revived, and the Fed has made so many soothing noises about future interest rate rises already that it’s hard to see what they could add to that. Nonetheless some more soothing noises today might just get SPX to that target at the upper band. SPX daily chart:

141029 SPX Daily Trendlines BBs MAs


Do It To It

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Well, it’s dead quiet in here; perhaps everyone is frozen with fear about the oatmeal-cooking troll-beast on Wednesday. Who knows.

I’m having a not-too-bad day. I am completely short, and I’m up about 1% for the day (versus the market overall being down about 1/10th that amount). The Dow Jones Composite has pretty much utterly undone the entire October drop. It is simultaneously nauseating and exciting: