Category Archives: Bulls/Bears

2016: Current Market Themes

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A year ago almost to the day we began tracking a ‘Macrocosmic’ theme that would eventually see gold bottom and rise vs. stocks and bonds in 2016, joining its bullish status vs. commodities, which had been in place since 2014.

Nominal gold bottomed in December 2015 before silver, commodities and stocks as a counter cyclical environment birthed a new precious metals bull market. We updated the progress here, here and here in 2016.

But markets, being the product of immeasurable moving parts, are always in motion and you cannot get too hung up on any one theme, ideology or habit. When the Semiconductor sector began burping up its positive signals for the economy and for stocks, we listened intently and I for one, put my capital where my mouth was and noted as much each week in NFTRH.

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Stuck. Still.

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Well, even a complete letdown by Kuroda isn’t enough to get this market to drop a reasonable amount. For the 12th day in a row, we’re basically at sorta kinda 2160 on the ES. Hey, at least Kuroda didn’t give the bulls some pleasure-inducing mega-package. Be thankful for tiny miracles. Oh, and of course, oil is down……….again. Anyway, here’s the almost unbelieveable ES action over the past few weeks:

0729-es

The Ursine Toggle

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Greetings from Whole Foods, where I’ve dispatched my son to deal with the shopping, as he has decided to cook dinner for the family tonight. Whole Foods apparently hasn’t spent any of their gigantic profits on their network, since it feels like the entire store is dangling off a shared 2400 baud modem. All the same, I take opportunities to do posts when I can, thus I am banging out this final post of the day.

As an aside, I’ll mention no regret at not being able to watch every moment of the Democratic Convention. Lord in heaven almighty, the Jerry Lewis Telethon was more entertaining. Not only that, but there’s only so much pandering at Hillary-worshiping I can stomach. I love watching politics, but seriously, about five minutes is about all I can take before causing stomach upset.

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Small Cap Breakout?

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The moment the market opened this morning, the small caps went roaring out of the gate for no particular reason. As I’m typing this, they’re easing back a little, but the chart is a bit worrisome for the one or two bears left on the planet, as the Russell 2000 seems to be vaulting past mildly important resistance. The bulls can only truly declare victory if they can push the market past the blue trendline I’ve pointed out.

0726-rut

Candlestick Commentary

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It certainly was nice to get a down day for a change. I wanted to share three charts and a remark about each one. These are all short-term candlestick charts.

The first is the ES, which has been in a bullish uptrend since the (now laughable) Brexit event. Until and less it breaks beneath the level I’ve marked below, which is both the upper trendline of the pattern as well as the post-jobs report gap, the uptrend is intact. 2125 needs to be busted before the bears can really breathe any sigh of relief.

0721-eds

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Follow The Yellow Brick Road

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I never managed to get a post out yesterday in the end as I was preparing for my vacation so I’m doing an early post today before I go using charts I did last night for Basic Chart Service subscribers at theartofchart.net.

SPX inched a little higher yesterday and a possible strong RSI5_NYMO daily sell signal is now brewing. SPX may go a little higher but not much I suspect, and I am expecting that sell signal to fix within a couple of days. After it does I’m expecting a retracement to at minimum test the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 2111, and likely lower. SPX daily chart:

160720C SPX Daily

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