I was relieved to see the market’s Yellen rally disintegrate so quickly on Friday, although the bulls are still in control. Looking at the Dow Composite below, we need to get beneath the area I’ve tinted. As the crow flies, it isn’t a big trip, but it’s going to take some doing, since it is formidable support.
A big news day today with Janet Yellen talking about the Fed’s future plans to improve the stability of the financial system. Doubtless she will once again be reaffirming the Fed’s complete commitment, having dug a vast economic hole with overly loose monetary policy and low interest rates since Greenspan’s appointment as the Fed Chairman almost thirty years ago, to keep on digging using the same tools until that hole has entirely disappeared. Obviously we should all hope that the Fed’s efforts doing that in the future are more successful than they have been in the past.
Stan’s on holiday this week (as well as last week) and I’m minding the shop at theartofchart.net, so I’ve been more underwater than usual. I try to get these posts out in the morning but that’s not always possible. Apologies for this particularly late one.
Bears had a good day yesterday and the marginal swing high that I was looking for was not made. Does this mean that this seemingly eternal topping process is finally done? Well no, but it’s a step closer to finished. As I mention regularly, there’s no hurrying these things and topping processes particularly can test the patience of even the most experienced traders. It’s coming, and coming soon, but there’s still more to do as I’ll show below.
SPX retested the ATH as expected yesterday, but made a marginal lower high, as did NDX, which I wasn’t expecting. An acceptable double top setup has formed, and if we now see a daily closing break break below the daily middle band, currently at 2178, then this swing high is likely in.
The short-selling fund, symbol HDGE, sums it up nicely. The year was fantastic for the bears………for a little while. Every since February 11, which feels like about fifty years ago, it’s been a complete shit-show. I’m starting to think it’s going to be this way in perpetuity.
The killer is that there is a plethora of amazing short setups for individual stocks, but none of them are going to amount to jack squat as long as the market keeps getting drifted higher day after day. It’s a drag.
Yesterday started off as expected, but the move down stalled at the daily middle band, and then that held on repeated tests for the rest of the day. I was saying last night on the daily video update for subscribers at theartofchart.net that the support there three of the last four days was favoring a retest of the daily upper band at 2194/5 next, and that the possible H&S patterns forming on SPX, NDX & RUT were now much less likely to deliver. On a retest of the ATH, which we are seeing now, then I’d be looking for a marginal new all time high in the 2194-2200 range, that should not break the resistance trendline now at 2200. I would expect that marginal new high to be the swing high for the current move up, and for that to hold for three or four weeks. SPX daily chart: