Other than on asian markets, there is a lot of negative divergence on US and european indices on the weekly and daily charts now, with the first of those fixing on the RUT and FTSE daily RSI 5s this week.
SPX has possible daily RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals brewing, one half decent red daily candle would likely fix both signals. SPX daily chart:
Note from Tim: In case it isn’t screamingly obvious, I did not write this post.
Many will simply read the headline to this article, and use it as support for their belief in the market striking a multi-year top right now. I mean, aren’t headlines like this proof that the market is overheated?
Well, the answer is a definite “sometimes.” You see, back in 2015 and 2016 I was writing articles with headlines saying that we are going to target the 2500SPX region. And, if you thought that those headlines were portending the end of the bull market, then you were clearly wrong. So, consider, maybe this headline is prescient rather than a contrarian signal.
Based on what I saw during my visit last night, Disneyland’s newest ride is the Leap Over an Opioid Addict attraction just outside the park. They were all white males around thirty years old or so, sprawled out on the ground. At least it was more engaging than the boring Monsters Inc. ride inside the park itself.
But that’s not why we’re here. It’s a Sunday morning, and I’m out of posts (except for one waiting in the wings for the appropriate afternoon), so I’ll cobble one together. It isn’t easy, though. See, here’s what a normal market looks like:
Reference a post from August 11: Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold
Stock Market Status
In the above-linked article we noted several legs that could be kicked out from under the S&P 500’s table in Q4 2017. The stock market blew right through one of them, which was a bearish (on average) seasonal trend for the 2nd half of September. No one indicator is a be all, end all. In sum, they define probabilities. But price is the ultimate arbiter and as of today, price says ‘still bullish’ (says Captain Obvious).
Another leg was the 30 month cycle that has caught 5 of 7 important tops or bottoms (4 tops, 1 bottom) since 2000. As noted when it was first presented, this monthly chart takes into account months of slush in and around the 30 month mark, so it is far from an exact timer. The S&P 500 remains in the window with the September bar now in play. (more…)
Well, it’s that oh-so-spooky day of bad luck, Friday the 13th, and……….new highs everywhere. Everything, and I mean everything, is up. ES? New lifetime highs.
Obviously the bears have had serious issues achieving anything recently, and yet again today they have delivered their signature matching lows at the current lows of the day, but there is a decent chance that there is at least some more retracement coming in the next day or two, with all of the hourly charts on SPX, NDX and RUT currently on RSI 14 sell signals. I’m not expecting anything impressive, and the structure here is suggesting that will be at least one more leg up after that, so if seen this larger retracement should be a dip buying opportunity into new all time highs on SPX and NDX, and possibly on RUT as well. (more…)
Hard to imagine this place was bankrupt in 2008 – – – anyway, this has gone very far, very fast, and I suspect it’s time for it to ease back over the next few weeks.