Well I’ve been saying all week that I would start to take the larger bear scenario here seriously on a break below the weekly pivot at 1796, and here we are. Who knew that the bears had it in them to deliver a full day of relentless selling? It’s been a while since we have seen that. (more…)
This is the fifth time the IWM has tagged its supporting trendline. In every prior instance, it has simply pushed higher to new highs never before seen in human history. We are again at the line now (and this is in light of the “great” news of a two-year budget deal from Congress.) If it breaks this line in earnest, the bulls are dead – - and God knows they deserve to be. If the line holds again, then the forces of darkness will continue to prevail. (more…)
Looking at ES the retracement from the high on Monday is most likely still ongoing, though there is clear positive divergence on the 60min RSI warning that it may not go much lower. The reversal at the 50 hour MA overnight kept ES on the bear side of the MA, and if the retracement continues today the obvious target is the weekly pivot at 1796.20, which should be strong support as the daily middle bollinger bands on both ES and SPX are in the same area. I have the retracement pattern as a 70% bullish (ultimately) falling wedge and I have wedge resistance just over 1805. The main bull/bear line for today is at 1808 as that was the overnight high. ES 60min chart: (more…)
Yesterday was a tedious day that didn’t go far or decide anything. I’m still leaning bullish but short term ES is retracing after established negative 60min RSI divergence yesterday. I have a small double-top target at 1801.5 and have key support around the weekly pivot at 1796.20. This is the level below which the bear case will start to look interesting again. ES 60min chart: (more…)
The winter cold has set in hard around the San Francisco Bay Area (even though we’re technically still in autumn), and, now that all the day’s tasks are done, I finally have some time for a proper post.
Looking at the big equity indexes, things kind of stalled from the vicious upsurge at the point I’ve marked in green. We’re in a (very!) modest down-channel right now, and the real moment-of-truth comes if and when the price can penetrate the level I’ve marked in magenta. (more…)
I posted a chart on twitter on Friday evening showing the move up from the lows last week, and showing the strong setup there to retest the highs today. The low on Friday morning retested the break over a double-bottom targeting the 1814 area, and by the close a rising channel from the lows had formed on SPX. While that rising channel holds I’d expect a retest of the highs by lunchtime today, as the channel support trendline is rising an impressive 18 points per trading day. If it breaks down then the double-bottom remains a strong setup as long as Friday’s low at 1796.81 holds. SPX 1min chart: (more…)
I have been out all morning and only have time for two charts today. The NFP figures this morning were a decent beat and the US unemployment rate is now back down to 7%. Even though the Fed is clearly very gun-shy about tapering they may well feel that if they still don’t taper now then they will lose a lot of their remaining credibility. (more…)