Well we finally got the retracement I was looking for. It was shallow at 23.6% but the 1990 low established the rising channel from 1904 that I had been mentioning as a possibility since last week. Hopefully everyone saw that when I posted it on twitter after the low. There is still a possibility that a double top is forming at a test of the current highs, but I’m expecting another push up first. I think the next significant retracement will most likely be a significant high, or start the topping process for such a high. SPX 60min chart:
Well, for the 8,398th time in a row, the BTFD crowd has been proved correct. The “full-scale invasion” of Ukraine that prompted a cataclysmic, earth-shattering collapse of 8 points on the ES is now completely retracing.
SPX traded sideways yesterday in what looked quite a lot like a bull flag, but has broken down overnight. It seems very likely that an overdue retracement has started, though we might still retest the current high to form a small double top. The main fib retracement targets are the 23.6% fib retrace at 1990, the 38.2% fib retrace at 1980, and the 50% retrace at 1973. The 50 hour MA is at 1992 and might hold for the 23.6% option. Rising wedge support has already broken, so that is no longer support. SPX 60min chart:
Another day with no significant pullback and a new all time high yesterday. There is still definitely a small retracement needed soon but that will happen when it happens. In the meantime SPX is getting close to testing my main resistance zone, which is now in the 2011-21 area. On the daily chart the resistance levels in the zone are the daily upper band, currently at 2011, and rising wedge resistance from the January low, currently in the 2015 area. The daily upper band will most likely cross 2015 within a couple of days. SPX daily chart:
Last Thursday I was outlining the two main options for the current move as I see them. The first option is failure at 2010-20 resistance to make the second high of a double top targeting the 1800 area. The second option is that SPX breaks over that resistance and heads to currently theoretical channel resistance (from 1343 low), somewhere in the 2060-90 area. I said then that I favored the first option, but obviously we might see a break up into the second.
So where are we now? Well we haven’t reached my resistance area yet, but we have a clear 70% bearish rising wedge established from the 1904 low, and increasing negative divergence on the 60min RSI 14, the daily RSI 5 and, always nice to see, the daily NYMO. We have a promising looking top setting up for that 2010-20 test, and the odds of a failure there are improving. SPX daily chart:
ES is well up overnight, and if that continues into trading hours, then there is an obvious target and significant resistance at the daily upper band, now at 2003 but possibly moving as high as 2005/6 on a strong open today. If that is hit and we see a strong rejection there that would then open up the daily middle band, currently at 1952, as a possible retracement target. SPX daily chart:
The Yellen news is out of the way, and next week is the week before the world comes back from summer vacation, so unless we get a geo political curve ball there is nothing in the charts that say jump ahead of the market and short it. In fact, it still does not even make sense to take anything off the table yet (next week is a different story).
The good deflation meme is still playing out; dollar stronger, bonds stronger, oil weaker, gold weaker, volatility weaker, institutions still buying, or at least holding, market has no choice but to stay fully invested.
I am still keeping it simple and shorting VXX through put spreads. I can envision a sub 20 UVXY before this market rolls over. For those in XIV, stay fully invested until 42.39 is breached (paid subscribers get a daily update on the stop). (more…)