Yesterday saw a sharp decline into an early morning low that was given back in a grind up for the rest of the day. The low was an almost perfect test of the daily middle band, and that may well be it for the retracement I was expecting. If not though then of course I was saying yesterday morning that more might be needed to be done on forming short term topping patterns, and I’d note that five of my six optic run charts now have nice looking possible double-top patterns, and the sixth is right at resistance and was turning down there at the close last night. SPX has now formed a very nice looking falling channel from the last two highs and if that survives into the open, then overall this is a potentially bearish setup for today. SPX 60min chart:
Greetings from Whole Foods Market in Palo Alto. There are times when I simply have to get away from my home office, since even I have limits as to how many hours I want to stay in the same place. I come to Whole Foods often enough to notice that a fair number of insane people come here. I divide them into (a) insane people without money and (b) insane people with money.
The insane ones without money are the more obvious ones. They are the ones yammering to themselves, or dressed in really peculiar outfits, or otherwise looking semi-homeless. The ones with money require a more discerning eye (or, in my case, a good memory). FLASH update: at this very moment, one of group (b) sat next to me and is having a business meeting on speakerphone. Astonishing. (It’s a very typical conversation: “I’m just trying to keep my day job while trying to raise money for my pet project.”)
Another very strong day from the bulls yesterday, and both of the breaks above the daily mid band and the 5 DMA were strongly confirmed on SPX. That doesn’t kill off any bear case altogether here, but it means that rather than trying to prevent a break up, bears would now have to break back down. My lean is bullish and I’m not really expecting bears to break back down, but I am expecting to see some retracement today, and I’ve put the key levels on the chart below to show what bears would need to do. SPX 5min chart:
The bounce scenario that I posted on twitter on Monday night played out and then some, and the SPX highs yesterday started to break significant levels that I would prefer to see unbroken, with a break over declining resistance from the last high, and small breaks over both the daily mid band and the 5 DMA. This is a very important inflection point and bears must deliver a red day today to avoid confirming those small bullish breaks today. Bulls want to confirm yesterday’s breaks and also break through the remaining important resistance levels in this area which are as follows:
– 2095.00 – 100 day MA
– 2098.37 – 50% fib retrace from 2132.82 high
– 2098.45 – weekly middle band
– 2100.60 – 50 day MA
– 2102.71 – 50 hour MA (dropping fast)
My “try to be a partial bull” yesterday blew up in my face. Not to be vanquished, I gave it another go today, and it’s working out (so far!) My best winners have been XOP and XME, and I’ve got a smattering of other long positions. In addition, I’ve trimmed back substantially on my shorts.
Having said that, let me be really, really clear: I think the Short Setup of 2015 is coming soon. I intend to hang on to these longs for a while, but they are, ironically, going to be my short signal when they reach their targets (well, let’s be humble – – IF they reach their targets).
One other helpful chart that I think will be the “all clear” for bears is JNK, shown below. If we can hack our way back to the level shown (and perhaps tomorrow’s Fed meeting will do the trick – who knows………) I intend to be obscenely and pornographically short. Until then, I’m in a relatively “balanced” portfolio, and crude oil in particular is being very helpful right now.
SPX made the first of my remaining three downside targets near the open yesterday when it broke below the H&S target at 2072. The remaining targets are the falling wedge target at 2060 and the weekly lower band, now at 2057.
I was talking about a likely bounce coming soon yesterday morning and a double bottom formed yesterday that should be for that bounce. The target is a 61.8% retracement of the falling channel from the H&S right shoulder. I posted the chart below on twitter last night and hopefully many of you saw that (my twitter handle is shjackcharts). Looking at the overnight action that seems likely to make target today. SPX 5min chart:
Today was terrific – except for one thing: my long positions.
After Friday’s success with gold, I decided to get cute and buy miners, as well as some oil producers, and even some oil. Almost without exception, every one a loser, and in the end, nothing more than a substantial tax on my marvelous bearish profits.
And in my head I can only think of one song – – shown below – – whose lyrics I have renamed “I’ll never buy a stock again………”