On August 11 the potential and reasoning for anticipated pivots in the US stock market and the gold sector were noted in this article: Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold
As for the stock market, several reasons were put forward in support of a 2nd half of September through Q4 danger period, for a correction (no need yet to talk bear market because that would be pure promotion of an agenda). Please note that standard technical analysis was not among those reasons. The stock market was then and is now, in an uptrend across all important time frames.
The reasons for the correction view noted in the article ranged from the S&P 500’s 30 month cycle, to the Fed’s Funds cycle and its proximity to the 2yr yield (this has not yet made a bear signal) to the US dollar’s potential to rally (still waiting on that one) to a rough seasonal patch that begins in mid-September. Well, today is September 15, da boyz is back from da Hamptins and the rest is up to the market’s nature to take its course. (more…)
This is the twenty-thousandth post on the Slope of Hope. Earth decided not to make a big splash about this momentous occasion, because as I sit here on this pitch-black predawn, the ordinariness of the news is striking:
- Another provocative missile launch from North Korea – – the 15th this year – – which is drawing yawns and eye-rolls from traders the world over;
- Another terrorist attack (I suspect the Amish), this one in London;
- Equity markets floating near the highest levels in human history.
How much more fitting it might have been for the Dow to have fallen, say, 2000 points the day before, just to put a spring in our collective stride? (more…)
It’s been a generally dull week, and since the bull flag on SPX made target with a new all time high there hasn’t been much movement in either direction. We are still ideally looking for another leg up into the 2509 area but the setup for that last leg up is starting to sour slightly, with hourly sell signals already fixed on ES and the SPX RSI 5. The move should really be in the next couple of days if we are going to see it without a significant retracement first. SPX 60min chart:
Well, the latest “North Korean ICBMs are coming!” selloff lasted all of about ten minutes. As I type this now, the ES is freakin’ GREEN, as are most stocks. Looking at the intraday chart of the ES below……..and I realize I’m not an unbiased source………..it just SEEMS to me it’s about time for a selloff lasting more than seven minutes.
Last week was an in-between week but the key support levels all held, and after the strong open this week SPX is now close to the bull flag target at the retest of the all time high. I show below that another bull flag channel has now also broken up on NQ, and I’m expecting an all time high retest there as well. SPX 60min chart:
The “nuclear” hurricane Irma is grinding its way into extinction, and already the teeth-gnashing and chest-grabbing about what an apocalyptic storm it would be is fading just as fast. Damage estimates look to be about four times as big as reality. Not to say that it wasn’t a nasty storm, but the markets are rallying on the NQ up 43 points (as of this moment):
This entire week has been spent doing one thing: just hanging out beneath the trendline. No surge (thank God). No break. Just………..lingering. I have no quarrel with the ES being down a few points here and there, but for Pete’s sake, can we get a -40 one of these days? Is it no longer possible? Because the trendline is BROKEN, and it’s time to plunge, baby.