Once again, I find myself in a position where I worried myself silly all night that I was 125% short the market, fearing what the economic data would do…………..and then the numbers come out, and I wish I was 250% short and scold myself for my timidity.
After the CPI came in at 2.1%, hotter than expected, yields shot up…….
It seems the big news everyone is waiting for is tomorrow morning’s pre-market CPI and retail numbers. In the meanwhile, I’d like to point out that both the ES and NQ might be forming a third pattern, as I’ve tinted here, preceding another leg down. Once again, I cannot turn my head without seeing an article about how new highs are just around the corner, but maybe I’m just weird or stubborn in saying that We Are Done.
I’m preparing a post putting a strong technical argument that the bull market from the 2009 low is not finished, and having a look at where SPX is likely to be within the structure of that bull market. The post may not be out until after the close tomorrow, but the video segment will be posted on our YouTube channel and I’ll be posting the link to that video on my twitter later today.
For today this is a nice rally from Friday’s low. Not expecting that to be the retracement low but there are fixed hourly RSI 14 buy signals that are not close to target and my lean would be that there is at least some more upside coming. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net – Update on ES, NQ and TF: (more…)
I am still holding off going hog-wild with shorting. There’s too much “healing and recovery” that needs to take place. All the same, I think it’s going to exhaust itself relatively soon. Friday and today have helped, but roughly speaking, I don’t think the Dow is not going to get past 25,000. Then the fun begins anew.
Well, I couldn’t be more pleased with the markets this morning. As I made abundantly clear on Friday, and through the weekend, I had greatly lightened up on shorts and went long (in a big way) select ETFs to take advantage of a bounce. Well, the bounce is on, with the ES up about 30 and the NQ up about 70 as I am typing this.
Looking at ZH over the weekend, they kept pouring out stories about how the collapse would simply continue. But we know better – – Gartman is firmly on our side, as of Friday morning, and that’s all we really need. (more…)
US Stock Market
We will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I’d like to focus on the US stock market.
Let’s cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during the 2015-2016 period, when the media were all but demanding investors go one way when the right way was the opposite (for example, we got bullish during the Brexit mini hysteria because sentiment, macro indicators and charts told us to) during the market top (that wasn’t).
But today the bliss is wearing off as the average person did not need to wait for his monthly statement to see that something went wrong with the up-melting market that was printing him money every month. Here is a look at the Google Trend for the search term “stock market crash”. Per Google’s computation method, the reading cannot go higher than 100. (more…)
I’m typing this late Friday night in the cool night air outside of a closed Starbucks. I never thought I’d appreciate a weekend as much as this one. No GLOBEX quotes. No government shutdown. No nothing. Just peace and quiet.
Let’s take a step back after this insane week and just drink in the basics of the ES activity for the past couple of months, which I have broken down into four simple tints: