Happy new week, everyone. I’m relieved we’re past Thanksgiving and can get back to normalcy. I wanted to make a couple of remarks about two big commodities out there – gold and oil.
As for gold, it’s been having a wretched time since July 6th, from which it’s fallen about 15%. It is finally getting a little bit of strength, but I think it’ll be short-lived. The most logical place for it to crawl back would be the gap I’ve pointed out below, just about $1200. After such time, I think the weakness will continue afoot. I have no precious metals positions at all right now, but if gold strength continues, I’ll be looking hard at GDXJ again for a short sale.
There’s been a number of significant level breaks/hits over the past week and it seems timely for a longer-term chart review. Here come the weekly charts.
A lot of the charts coming up relate in some way to the US dollar so let’s take a look at that one first.
The USD chart has broken out strongly from a 2 year range. There’s no arguing with this breakout, the USD is going higher. Since a lot of commodity charts react to moves in the greenback, let’s take a look at some of the more popular ones.
The allure of “merger Monday” is upon the world, as the logic seems to be that if a Time-Warner/AT&T deal can happen, then why not have everyone merge at big premiums? We’ve definitely need this movie before.
At the moment, gold remains in a no-man’s-land in which it’s trying to decide whether to complete its tiny saucer pattern and try a (surely doomed) assault at $1300, or whether it’ll simply succumb to gravity and continue its fall. My only precious metals position is a medium-sized GDXJ short.
I haven’t posted the full set of charts that I do every morning for a while and these are the companion charts that I use in my premarket videos for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. I posted that on twitter before the open today (@shjackcharts), but if you missed that you can see that here.
On ES I was saying that the outlook remains bullish as long as 2146 remains unbroken, and the LOD so far is 2147.75. If that remains the LOD then the outlook still leans bullish. ES Dec 60min chart:
The bears didn’t have a good day yesterday, with a larger than expected decline on the indices, and clear breaks at the RTH on SPX close back below the daily middle band, the 50 hour MA and the 5dma, and ES losing the key weekly pivot area at 2152.25 that I highlighted as a key close area on a tweet yesterday afternoon. With the historical stats for the last day of September leaning 75% bearish, and the indices resting on key support levels the odds of the ATH retest on SPX that Stan and I have been looking for definitely looking lower, and you can see that reflected in the tone of my comments last night on the charts below.
Overnight though the picture changed entirely, with marginal new lows and 60min buy signals fixing on ES, NQ and TF, and with a triangle confirmed on NQ and a perfect bull flag channel established on TF. On my premarket video for subscribers to the Daily Video Service at theartofchart.net today I was leaning strongly bullish, and I’ve not seen anything since then to change that view. I’m thinking 50% odds or better that SPX trends up today. The direct link to that video is here. Hopefully some of you saw that when I posted that link on twitter before the open today.
I have a “moment of truth” every morning when I grab my iPad, bleary-eyed, from the side of the bed, to see what the ES is doing. This particular morning, I was bracing myself for +30 on the ES considering the Clinton momentum, but, happily, it’s only up 3 measly points at the moment. More important to me, crude oil is getting its shiny black bottom spanked, down about 2.7%. Some ridiculous rumor should be along any moment now.