Category Archives: Commodities

Yen Retracing

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Since Monday, hmmm were there any secret meetings that day…. The Yen has been falling.  I laid out a fib retrace and am expecting the Yen to hold support at the 50% line.  This is the new fuel for the rocket ship we call our stock market.  This is also causing the precious metals some grief (why I bought DUST), and oil to some extent, as well.  My belief is the Yen will renew its climb when our Fed does nothing in April, and no way in June with Brexit vote, on tap.  In the meantime keep your NUGT’s warm.


Oil Traverses to Channel Bottom

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Crude Oil is down another 2% today, after spiraling down nearly 4% yesterday in reaction to a much greater than expected build in Weekly Inventories.

Let’s notice that the weakness off of Tuesday’s recovery-rally high at $41.90– against the upper-channel boundary line– has traversed the entire width of the channel, as the price structure probes the lower-channel boundary in the vicinity of $38.50, where the weakness should be contained, ahead of renewed buying interest.

That said, my intermediate-term work also has rolled over, and suggests strongly that any bounce off of the lower-channel boundary line will be short lived ahead of downside continuation towards $36-$34.

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Something Wicked This Way Comes (by Bob Kudla)

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The Junk Bond Market topped in 2011, Commodities, as well, the Real Estate Market Topped in 2014, the Stock Market topped in 2015, and now we are seeing gold, U.S. bonds, and the dollar starting to positively correlate.

It is time to revisit with Mr. Exeter. He created a risk pyramid, that shows how investors cascade down from high risk to no risk assets as aversion and default gains steam.