The Junk Bond Market topped in 2011, Commodities, as well, the Real Estate Market Topped in 2014, the Stock Market topped in 2015, and now we are seeing gold, U.S. bonds, and the dollar starting to positively correlate.
It is time to revisit with Mr. Exeter. He created a risk pyramid, that shows how investors cascade down from high risk to no risk assets as aversion and default gains steam.
Let me explain:
The concept is beyond supply and demand, at some point the price gets to a point where there is not enough buyers at any price that makes sense to produce or serve, and for the world this has now become a structural problem, and will turn deflation into a depression. Capital owners are resisting lowering their rate of return at a slower rate than consumers ability to purchase their goods and services.
Well, I’m back from a family trip to Denver, where we had a successful fencing tournament. I am heartened, now that I am back in front of my computer screens around midnight on Sunday, to see commodities continue to crash and burn. To my way of thinking, commodities represent the unvarnished truth about the world economy, far more germane than, oh, say, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, or Google (just to grab four names out of the air).