The agricultural sector has been beaten to pieces. I just thought I’d toss this chart out there again for your consideration as a long idea. The red horizontal is at $20.33.
Well, that took long enough. In place since January 20th, the ascending trendline for commodities (as measured by the ETF symbol DBC) is broken to the downside.
The signals of gold vs. other assets and markets have become so important to financial markets over the last year (hello Macrocosm, July 27 2015) that I have created a standard segment in NFTRH called ‘Gold vs.‘. The segment regularly checks up on gold vs. stock markets, currencies, bonds and of course, commodities.
Here is the state of the latter. After the chart I’ll summarize some of the market signals.
- Au-CRB is in a long-term uptrend. This uptrend has been in place since late 2014, when not coincidentally, volatile market disturbances started to erupt. The uptrend is in place, indicating a generally counter cyclical global atmosphere. If gold breaks down vs. cyclical CRB the ‘inflation’ play would drive hot money out to other areas beyond gold mining. If not, the favored gold mining fundamental backdrop will have held up.
Crazy price action this week. Yeesh! The last couple of weeks of trade have price right back where it started. Is it going to break out? Continue to chop? Fall apart? The S&P500 is right back at resistance and starts a new quarter on Tuesday.
It’s not just gold and silver that appear to be starting new cyclical bull trends, it’s commodities across the board. Could this be the start of another 2009-2011 type run? The evidence is compelling.
Quite a Friday we had last week, huh? Upon checking my “End of Week” Charts, I noticed some interesting behaviour and thought I’d share my observations. Last weekend sometime, I shared a weekly chart of the US Dollar and that it was approaching its 20 week MA. I use the 20week and 20day moving averages as basic bull/bear filters. I’m only bullish on stocks that are above both and I’m only bearish on stocks that are below both.
I find this makes for an easy and efficient filter. I thought that the US Dollar had reversed short of the test until I saw it after the close Friday and realized it had tested the 20week MA exactly. Take a look. (click any chart for a larger size version)