Category Archives: Commodities

Crude Rotation

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I’m in total agreement that grease monkeys need not get excited unless they rip apart 5430s.  However, this week marks the first in many weeks that WTI has rotated right back to where it all started – the Weekly Opening Range (WOR) that was set Sunday night:

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Experts are saying oil will head to $200 or $20 – pick a side.  Meanwhile, it’s been a nice bullish week and we’ll change our minds if they start breaking down weekly opening ranges again.

There’s no point in having a bias, only order flow ;)

Copper Breaks Through Major Support

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The following Weekly chart of Copper shows that price has broken below a major support level of 2.5517 (confluence of Fibonacci Retracement, Fibonacci Fanlines, and downtrending channel) and is hovering above price support level of 2.385.

Failure to reclaim and hold above what is now major resistance at 2.5517 and a drop and hold below 2.385 could see Copper plunging to 2008 lows of 1.255.

Never a Straighter Line

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We all crave a market that trends persistently. Over the past six years, with all the insane interventions going on around the world, it’s tough to secure a trend (particularly on the short side) that lasts more than a couple of trading sessions. But stand back, everyone, and take note of what commodities have done consistently for over FIVE MONTHS.

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One can only imagine the billions of dollars lost along the way by people trying to “buy the dip”. It does my heart good to see so many bulls getting blown up. At least there’s one segment of the global economy where bears dominate. God bless them.

The Endless Slide

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Enough time has passed that I wanted to mention an idea I gave my Slope Plus subscribers back on November 21st. I wrote, in part, “USO did a perfect gap-fill at 29.08. I shorted some crude oil right here, since this is an extremely clean stop.” My stop was too tight (by a few pennies), but my readers have been warned of that many times, so I re-entered the short afterward. In any case, the gap is noted with the green arrow, and the post was written at the red arrow.

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Even I remain stunned how far, and how fast, crude oil is collapsing. The prospect of oil heading to, say, $35 per barrel seems totally plausible to me. At least we have one unmanipulated market that illustrates that, under the fake surface, the world economy isn’t doing so hot.