We all crave a market that trends persistently. Over the past six years, with all the insane interventions going on around the world, it’s tough to secure a trend (particularly on the short side) that lasts more than a couple of trading sessions. But stand back, everyone, and take note of what commodities have done consistently for over FIVE MONTHS.
One can only imagine the billions of dollars lost along the way by people trying to “buy the dip”. It does my heart good to see so many bulls getting blown up. At least there’s one segment of the global economy where bears dominate. God bless them.
Enough time has passed that I wanted to mention an idea I gave my Slope Plus subscribers back on November 21st. I wrote, in part, “USO did a perfect gap-fill at 29.08. I shorted some crude oil right here, since this is an extremely clean stop.” My stop was too tight (by a few pennies), but my readers have been warned of that many times, so I re-entered the short afterward. In any case, the gap is noted with the green arrow, and the post was written at the red arrow.
Even I remain stunned how far, and how fast, crude oil is collapsing. The prospect of oil heading to, say, $35 per barrel seems totally plausible to me. At least we have one unmanipulated market that illustrates that, under the fake surface, the world economy isn’t doing so hot.
Back on November 10th, I did my Shifting Sands post, which predicted that oil would, as gold and silver did before it, fall to pieces. I’ve marked the point of my post on the chart below with an arrow. Well, so far, so good, in spite of the Saudis trying to prop things up. I think oil has much, much farther to go.
I’ve got to say, I’m more and more enamored of shorting markets and sectors in which the Fed has little interest in interfering. Crude oil leaps to mind. There are very few charts which have been so steadily bearish as this one (as well as related companies/producers):
I’m showing a comparison, in graph format, of the percentages gained/lost of a variety of world market indices, commodities, currencies, and U.S. ETFs.
The first graph in each category shows the percentages gained/lost from March 2, 2009 to November 13, 2014.
The second graph in each category shows the percentages gained/lost Year-to-Date.
U.S. Major Indices
Just as “orange is the new black”, I think that “oil producers are the new gold miners.” It doesn’t sound quite as good, but here’s my point:
I’ve written before about the failing shelves of support with various commodities. Silver led the way in mid-September……