I’m going to make this post rather fast for one reason: squirrels. You see, the squirrels around town get up at a very specific time, and once they are up and about, it’s all over for me and my dog walk. You’ve never had your arms yanked off quite so swiftly as when a bunch of bushy black tails are scampering around and two very large, strong dogs are intent on pursuing them. So I need to scoot while I have a chance.
In any event, you all know my fixation on crude oil and my bearish positioning on energy stocks. In spite of yet another very green day on ES and NQ, I’m feeling pretty good about this morning, because crude continues to weaken. It seems that the OPEC meeting this month turned out to be just a fake, fabricated, anti-market contra-trend joke, and the true direction of commodities has resumed. I remain gleefully long ERY and DRIP and short a hodgepodge of energy issues, each of which I detailed last weekend.
The first part of this article was posted yesterday………….
We updated the mostly bearish view on commodities earlier in the week. This includes the current bounce, which is happening exactly as was planned ahead of time. This would be the second such bounce we’ve projected within the intermediate bear trend (sort of opposite the chart of SIMO above). Using this chart we have plotted a bounce target of 182 to 184, with a shot at the SMA 200 (currently 187).
It has now been exactly 10 months since we established 2410 as the measured objective for the S&P 500. In forming a potential double top this week at 2405.77 I’d say we are close enough to call the target in (as we did in February when the first top was made on what we called “peak Trump” day, post-congressional address).
Now, a target is not a stop sign; in this case it was a long-term objective based on a chart pattern, period. It could make me look like the genius I certainly am not, or it could just pause at the target on its way to further upside mania and a potential market blow off. Don’t let ’em baffle you with bullshit, nobody knows which of those, or whatever else may be in store. (more…)
In NFTRH 447 we used individual daily charts for the CRB index and various individual commodity items. This was in order to better view details of the bearish (but bouncing, as expected) state of the complex. Below are some of the more general daily charts we usually review (along with weekly charts) each week in NFTRH.
CRB and crude oil look bearish, NatGas is stable to constructive, copper is bearish as it consolidates the big bump, Agri is neutral/non-starter and the Uranium holder is bearish, exactly as we expected the fallout from the previous pump job to be.
The real economy, in my opinion, is better represented by the likes of the commodity index (shown below) than by, say, SnapChat (which reports “Earnings” on Wednesday). The breakdown continues apace…….
On the other side of a red-eye flight, so this will be quick.
It was exciting last night to see crude oil plunge (and take equities with it), but it didn’t last. Just look at that sudden sweep down – – merciless! – – and then the recovery overnight. As I’m typing this, crude oil has fought its way back into the green, but I’ve only taken profits on a couple of energy shorts (and I maintain my long in ERY).