Category Archives: Commodities

An Update on Commodities

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In NFTRH 447 we used individual daily charts for the CRB index and various individual commodity items. This was in order to better view details of the bearish (but bouncing, as expected) state of the complex. Below are some of the more general daily charts we usually review (along with weekly charts) each week in NFTRH.

CRB and crude oil look bearish, NatGas is stable to constructive, copper is bearish as it consolidates the big bump, Agri is neutral/non-starter and the Uranium holder is bearish, exactly as we expected the fallout from the previous pump job to be.



Stop-Cleaning in Commodities

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On the other side of a red-eye flight, so this will be quick.

It was exciting last night to see crude oil plunge (and take equities with it), but it didn’t last. Just look at that sudden sweep down – – merciless! – – and then the recovery overnight. As I’m typing this, crude oil has fought its way back into the green, but I’ve only taken profits on a couple of energy shorts (and I maintain my long in ERY).



Oil Will Lead the Way

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All right, I’ve got my box of Blue Bottle coffee, my Bob Ross playing, and the house is ice-cold, so I’m starting to get my wits about me again. I completely blew it this morning, in my got-up-too-late fog, and dumped my ETF positions (TWM, QID, ERY) in a fit of pique. That was not good. I have re-entered some ETF positions, but, sheesh, getting up at 7 a.m. doesn’t work for me. I really need to stick to my 5:30 a.m. arousal, as it were.

Looking at the commodity ETF below, I think it’s in big trouble, and oil will lead the way lower. My principal ally is tinted in green: all that overhead supply. I have offered up a prospective (and my preferred!) path with that red arrow.