All right, I’ve got my box of Blue Bottle coffee, my Bob Ross playing, and the house is ice-cold, so I’m starting to get my wits about me again. I completely blew it this morning, in my got-up-too-late fog, and dumped my ETF positions (TWM, QID, ERY) in a fit of pique. That was not good. I have re-entered some ETF positions, but, sheesh, getting up at 7 a.m. doesn’t work for me. I really need to stick to my 5:30 a.m. arousal, as it were.
Looking at the commodity ETF below, I think it’s in big trouble, and oil will lead the way lower. My principal ally is tinted in green: all that overhead supply. I have offered up a prospective (and my preferred!) path with that red arrow.
Inflation? What inflation?
Anyway, the market right now is as boring as Janet Yellen’s wedding night, so I’ll see you tomorrow.
Anyone who follows oil (or at least tosses it a side glance from time to time) knows that it has been stuck in a tight range for 2-3 months now. Following the “laws” of price action, expansion gives way to congestion and congestion gives way to expansion…eventually.
I rarely do posts about being “done” with a trade, but I did so yesterday for Slope Plus subscribers, early in the morning, with respect to gold and miners. The 50% gain on DUST in three weeks was a great winner, and the Fibonacci retracement on GDX looked like support.
As I looked at the charts later in the day, I did feel that miners might be largely complete with their down-move, but I was having second thoughts about gold. It still seemed like it had a decent prospect of falling. This morning, that thought seems to be borne out, as we’re down nearly $12. The key to watch, however, is the $1235 (approximately) level. That would be a fairly important trendline break.
Nonstop rain and flooding this winter (easily predicted by constant coverage of how California was going to be in a century-long-drought at that you-know-who blog) created big delays in airport travel last night, meaning that my pickup of family members at the airport didn’t happen until, oh, three in the morning. Having gone to bed at 4:30 a.m., I’m bright-eyed and bushy-tailed on this pitch-black morning.
Anyway, gold (which I am bearish by way of a DUST position) is down nearly ten bucks as of this writing. Breaking that blue trendline would be a very good thing.
It looks like another day of record highs across the board for equities. I’ve become inured to it by now. I’m particularly focused on what oil is doing, since apparently the OPEC production cuts are enjoying nearly full compliance, which is compelling oil to make yet another trust at the top of its range. It simply cannot seem to escape this very tight range, and OPEC has at a minimum done a great job creating a rock-solid floor for oil.
Yesterday was clearly a good day to introduce my new Jack in the Box continuation/flag pattern. The double bottom broke down slightly and has then reversed back into a full test of 2299.40. The full ATH retest at 2300.99 is VERY close and should be tested today if we are going to see that full retest. SPX 60min chart: