2017 is likely to be an interesting year, and the tape has already shaken off the December cobwebs and is moving again. On the bigger picture the chart below is how I’m seeing SPX on the monthly chart here, and the key message is that the bull market from the 2009 low here is most likely topping out or has already topped, though that doesn’t mean that SPX will necessarily drop much in 2017. This has been an eight year bull market and if we see the retracement that I’m looking at on the chart below, then we may not see that bear market low until 2020/1. If we see that 50% retracement then that would be a beautiful fibonacci move, and should then set up a very nice long into the next bull market.
Welcome to a new trading year, everyone. It looks like the animal spirits continue to run strong for equities, as just about every asset class is in the green. One zone in particular which is looking like it’s truly breaking out for another leg up is crude oil. Perhaps the big OPEC deal has more legs than people gave it credit for.
Happy new week, everyone. I’m relieved we’re past Thanksgiving and can get back to normalcy. I wanted to make a couple of remarks about two big commodities out there – gold and oil.
As for gold, it’s been having a wretched time since July 6th, from which it’s fallen about 15%. It is finally getting a little bit of strength, but I think it’ll be short-lived. The most logical place for it to crawl back would be the gap I’ve pointed out below, just about $1200. After such time, I think the weakness will continue afoot. I have no precious metals positions at all right now, but if gold strength continues, I’ll be looking hard at GDXJ again for a short sale.
There’s been a number of significant level breaks/hits over the past week and it seems timely for a longer-term chart review. Here come the weekly charts.
A lot of the charts coming up relate in some way to the US dollar so let’s take a look at that one first.
The USD chart has broken out strongly from a 2 year range. There’s no arguing with this breakout, the USD is going higher. Since a lot of commodity charts react to moves in the greenback, let’s take a look at some of the more popular ones.
The allure of “merger Monday” is upon the world, as the logic seems to be that if a Time-Warner/AT&T deal can happen, then why not have everyone merge at big premiums? We’ve definitely need this movie before.
At the moment, gold remains in a no-man’s-land in which it’s trying to decide whether to complete its tiny saucer pattern and try a (surely doomed) assault at $1300, or whether it’ll simply succumb to gravity and continue its fall. My only precious metals position is a medium-sized GDXJ short.
I haven’t posted the full set of charts that I do every morning for a while and these are the companion charts that I use in my premarket videos for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. I posted that on twitter before the open today (@shjackcharts), but if you missed that you can see that here.
On ES I was saying that the outlook remains bullish as long as 2146 remains unbroken, and the LOD so far is 2147.75. If that remains the LOD then the outlook still leans bullish. ES Dec 60min chart: