Category Archives: Cycles

Stocks Adjusted for ‘Inflation’ and for Gold

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[edit] Post veers at little at the end, may require a couple reads…

[edit2] Attn: Subscribers, material dovetails with market analysis in #318

[edit3] Charts are quite large; click for full size

MarketWatch announces that the US stock market is back to the ‘real’ highs of the last secular bull market, prior to the dot.com/tech bubble blow out. Here is the Dow adjusted for CPI, finally paying back investors after a 14 year debit in ‘real’ terms.

indu.cpi (more…)

SPX Primary Pattern Update

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I took some time yesterday night to consider the overall bull market pattern setup here from the 2011 low. There is something that has been concerning me seriously on my weekly charts, and that is that I still have no pattern from the 1343 low, and the last low of course was very clearly on a trendline from the 1560 low. Why is that important? Well I’m going to do a post explaining my thinking here in detail at the weekend but suffice it to say for now that my wedge target at 1965 is a wedge target regardless of degree, but the reason I have been expecting the target to be reached is because my assumption has been that the rising wedge from the 2011 low from which that target is taken is a primary bull market pattern. If that was the case, then the following primary bull market pattern should start from 1343, and I can only see a secondary (one degree below) pattern starting there. If that pattern is a secondary pattern, then most likely the rising wedge from the 2011 low was also a secondary pattern. (more…)