I took some time yesterday night to consider the overall bull market pattern setup here from the 2011 low. There is something that has been concerning me seriously on my weekly charts, and that is that I still have no pattern from the 1343 low, and the last low of course was very clearly on a trendline from the 1560 low. Why is that important? Well I’m going to do a post explaining my thinking here in detail at the weekend but suffice it to say for now that my wedge target at 1965 is a wedge target regardless of degree, but the reason I have been expecting the target to be reached is because my assumption has been that the rising wedge from the 2011 low from which that target is taken is a primary bull market pattern. If that was the case, then the following primary bull market pattern should start from 1343, and I can only see a secondary (one degree below) pattern starting there. If that pattern is a secondary pattern, then most likely the rising wedge from the 2011 low was also a secondary pattern. (more…)
This is the fifth post in my Brave New World Series (BNW Series) since SPX broke over major long term resistance under 1600 in April 2013. The thrust of this series is to argue first that the break confirmed the end of the secular bear market that began in 2000, and to look at where equities, particularly SPX, are likely to go from that break. (more…)
Running correlation tests with the rally from Mar 2009 – 2013 to help us to determine how much juice is left in the rally. (more…)
William Gann, Richard Wyckoff, Jesse Livermore and Jim Hurst all believed cycles are present in the market and price action was not always random. W D Gann would determined the vibration(s) of a stock (ie cycle) and then apply Gann Angles to the trend of the vibration to look for trading opportunities. (more…)
The use of correlation has been used in speculation for 100′s of years, no matter if its horse racing, bird racing or the stock market. While it is working it has the speculators attention. (more…)
W D Gann was a master at finding patterns in the past to guide the future.
W D Gann forecasters are following this chart:
Two patterns from the past with a correlation greater than 90% below. The more data in the pattern with a high correlation is more significant than short time frames, simply as they are rare.
…”In the long run commodity prices are governed by one law – the economic law of demand and supply”..
..”If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks”..
John (Jack) Bogle
If crude oil has a dominant cycle, then does this mean world conflict has a cycle? Crude oil cycle watches new an upswing in 2013 was coming soon. We all know the correlation with $100 oil and instant recession that follows in the USA. Well what happens when you have $120 oil and 10 year interest rates higher by 30% at say 3.25%. Consumer squeeze coming. Get the feeling that he commodity bull run is about to start again. Metals, energy and grains have been hitting higher prices recently. This of course means the US Federal Reserve can never stop printing as the US has large bills to pay. (more…)