We are ready to enter into a 7 week weak period if you give credence to the cycles of the market. Presidential election years have a rhythm, and it is telling us to short this market until mid June. Take some summer profits and short this sucker again, and this year could be a doozy (spell check wanted me to replace with boozy, hmm) as it is the weakest start of a presidential cycle in a long time.
The Junk Bond Market topped in 2011, Commodities, as well, the Real Estate Market Topped in 2014, the Stock Market topped in 2015, and now we are seeing gold, U.S. bonds, and the dollar starting to positively correlate.
It is time to revisit with Mr. Exeter. He created a risk pyramid, that shows how investors cascade down from high risk to no risk assets as aversion and default gains steam.
I seriously doubt that the average market participant realizes the magnitude of the devastation that lays ahead. It is our human nature to project forward based on recent events – a common cognitive bias which can easily lead to painful losses during regular market conditions. But what we are facing over the coming weeks and months will register several standard deviations beyond current worst case scenarios, at least based on activity/pricing I’m currently seeing in the option chains.
Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 364…
In an age of Algorithms, High Frequency Trading, Quant-injected performance engines and every Casino Patron with an e-Trade account hyper-stimulating the market after each bit of news that is fed (no pun intended) to us by the financial media and Policy Central, the lowly individual can be forgiven for feeling small and vulnerable; for feeling as if the answers are beyond her, or that long-term success is out of his reach.
Indeed, this very publication has ground its gears pondering the fact that August-September market sentiment became historically over bearish in ratio to the relatively minor downside experienced thus far. That was a bullish, not a bearish thing. With sentiment now being repaired it is time to ask if we are giving the bulls too much latitude.
As we approach September 15, Shemitah talk is going to heat up (particularly if things start falling to pieces). You might enjoy this video; I got a particular kick out of it, since Stockhouse (founded by the chap featured below) was one of Prophet’s suitors back in 2004 when I was in the throes of selling my company. Of course, since 2015 is supposed to be a really big deal (7 times 7), my son asked me what huge event happened 49 years ago, which was the last “Jubilee”, in 1966. Ummmmmmm………not much. So maybe this is just another crock!
As all know my specialty is the Volatility Trade, and the weekly chart gives me a good view of the climate. It looks like it is paralleling last year somewhat. I am looking at three more weeks of this, and maybe a SPY visit down to the 190’s. Then expect a late summer rally into mid September, for a nice fall swoon. However, I will let my charts and signals guide me though. (more…)
In the previous post Tom McClellan highlights Peter Eliades’ work on the cyclical top due in the S&P 500 this year. To add some color to it, here is the chart I produced for NFTRH subscribers several weeks ago after purchasing and reading an Eliades report myself. His work came to my attention by way of Robert Prechter.