This “amateur cyclist’s” chart (I am anything but a cycles analyst) of the S&P 500 shows that the 12 month marker (C12) meant exactly nothing as the market remained firmly on trend, after brief pokes down in April and May. We noted that C12 was a lesser indicator than the 30 month cycle, which has coincided with some pretty significant changes (+/- a few months). That cycle (C30) is coming due at the end of the summer. Will it mean anything? Well, this market eats top callers for breakfast, lunch, dinner and midnight snacks. But it is worth knowing about to a lucid and well-armed market participant.
Well, oil’s explosive rally recently has been a thorn in my side (although the NASDAQ’s weakness has helped balance it out). I wanted to take a look at recently counter-trend rallies in oil and see if there might be any insights to be drawn. I have one……….
It seems to me, looking at recent history, that these idiotic, wrong-headed rallies last for thirteen days before reversing. Now I realize a sample set of two isn’t exactly mind-blowing, but what else ya gonna do? Just take a wild guess? Thus, if this pattern holds, oil has the rest of this week to keep pushing higher before it finally rolls over yet again.
One thing to note about the chart above……it does NOT include today’s action (which is another big up bar). I love SlopeCharts, but one limitation is that futures data is end-of-day only at this point, so I wanted to be really clear that one “day” is not present in what you see above.
- With the disclaimer being that as an intuitive and more artful TA using inter-market ratio measuring tools and the like, I am the furthest thing from an accomplished cycles analyst. Indeed, I am probably less adept at it than you are.
That behind us, I was fooling around with Stockcharts.com’s cycles tool and came up with this monthly view of the S&P 500, with the thick black lines being a 30 month cycle and the thin green lines being a 12 month cycle, each starting from the 2000 market top.
Each cycle has caught some pretty significant turning points with the 30 mo. having caught the 2000 and 2007 tops along with the 2002 bottom and the pre-corrective 2015 top. The 12 mo. cycle seems to have been more adept at spotting interim turning points but it did catch the 2009 bottom.
So as I’m sure everyone noticed, price sped up a bit this past week. It might have taken some of us (including myself) by surprise, but in the bigger picture, ever since Nov 9th kicked this rally into full gear, price has been fairly relentless ever since. Just take a look at the 100MA deviation envelopes.
The day after the Trump election victory, articles came out on describing how much Buffett made – some $11B, according to this CNBC article published on November 22, 2016.
Thought that was a lot and that it might’ve been too late to buy then?
Well, wait til you hear about how much Buffett made after this past week’s rally. Just look at the size of that December rally compared with the election rally in November in the chart below.
I wasn’t planning a post here today but I have more time than I expected this morning, and I didn’t manage to do the AAPL post I was planning yesterday, so I’m going to combine them both into a single post here this morning.
I’m rolling into the December contract over the weekend, so if you’ve rolled already then I’ve put the spread between the September and December contracts on each of the ES, NQ & TF charts below. All three charts were done and posted last night for subscribers at theartofchart.net.
At the time of writing all the key support levels that I was looking for at the time I did these charts are being tested. ES has made the 61.8% fib retrace and is testing the monthly pivot at 2168 (2161.5 on ES Dec). NQ has made the double double target at 4783, and is now testing the monthly pivot at 4763 (4759 on NQ Dec). TF has made the obvious 38.2% fib retrace at 1249/50 (1245 on TF Dec). These are big support levels, and given the timing on the cycle windows I’m expecting a reversal back up to new highs here.