As all know my specialty is the Volatility Trade, and the weekly chart gives me a good view of the climate. It looks like it is paralleling last year somewhat. I am looking at three more weeks of this, and maybe a SPY visit down to the 190’s. Then expect a late summer rally into mid September, for a nice fall swoon. However, I will let my charts and signals guide me though. (more…)
In the previous post Tom McClellan highlights Peter Eliades’ work on the cyclical top due in the S&P 500 this year. To add some color to it, here is the chart I produced for NFTRH subscribers several weeks ago after purchasing and reading an Eliades report myself. His work came to my attention by way of Robert Prechter.
I’m in total agreement that grease monkeys need not get excited unless they rip apart 5430s. However, this week marks the first in many weeks that WTI has rotated right back to where it all started – the Weekly Opening Range (WOR) that was set Sunday night:
Experts are saying oil will head to $200 or $20 – pick a side. Meanwhile, it’s been a nice bullish week and we’ll change our minds if they start breaking down weekly opening ranges again.
There’s no point in having a bias, only order flow 😉
 Post veers at little at the end, may require a couple reads…
[edit2] Attn: Subscribers, material dovetails with market analysis in #318
[edit3] Charts are quite large; click for full size
MarketWatch announces that the US stock market is back to the ‘real’ highs of the last secular bull market, prior to the dot.com/tech bubble blow out. Here is the Dow adjusted for CPI, finally paying back investors after a 14 year debit in ‘real’ terms.
I took some time yesterday night to consider the overall bull market pattern setup here from the 2011 low. There is something that has been concerning me seriously on my weekly charts, and that is that I still have no pattern from the 1343 low, and the last low of course was very clearly on a trendline from the 1560 low. Why is that important? Well I’m going to do a post explaining my thinking here in detail at the weekend but suffice it to say for now that my wedge target at 1965 is a wedge target regardless of degree, but the reason I have been expecting the target to be reached is because my assumption has been that the rising wedge from the 2011 low from which that target is taken is a primary bull market pattern. If that was the case, then the following primary bull market pattern should start from 1343, and I can only see a secondary (one degree below) pattern starting there. If that pattern is a secondary pattern, then most likely the rising wedge from the 2011 low was also a secondary pattern. (more…)
This is the fifth post in my Brave New World Series (BNW Series) since SPX broke over major long term resistance under 1600 in April 2013. The thrust of this series is to argue first that the break confirmed the end of the secular bear market that began in 2000, and to look at where equities, particularly SPX, are likely to go from that break. (more…)