Category Archives: Cycles

S&P 500: Is it This Simple?

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Excerpted from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 364

In an age of Algorithms, High Frequency Trading, Quant-injected performance engines and every Casino Patron with an e-Trade account hyper-stimulating the market after each bit of news that is fed (no pun intended) to us by the financial media and Policy Central, the lowly individual can be forgiven for feeling small and vulnerable; for feeling as if the answers are beyond her, or that long-term success is out of his reach.

Indeed, this very publication has ground its gears pondering the fact that August-September market sentiment became historically over bearish in ratio to the relatively minor downside experienced thus far. That was a bullish, not a bearish thing. With sentiment now being repaired it is time to ask if we are giving the bulls too much latitude.


Shemitah Fever – Catch It!

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As we approach September 15, Shemitah talk is going to heat up (particularly if things start falling to pieces). You might enjoy this video; I got a particular kick out of it, since Stockhouse (founded by the chap featured below) was one of Prophet’s suitors back in 2004 when I was in the throes of selling my company. Of course, since 2015 is supposed to be a really big deal (7 times 7), my son asked me what huge event happened 49 years ago, which was the last “Jubilee”, in 1966. Ummmmmmm………not much. So maybe this is just another crock!

The Bumpy Season is Upon Us

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As all know my specialty is the Volatility Trade, and the weekly chart gives me a good view of the climate.  It looks like it is paralleling last year somewhat.  I am looking at three more weeks of this, and maybe a SPY visit down to  the 190’s.  Then expect a late summer rally into mid September, for a nice fall swoon.  However, I will let my charts and signals guide me though. (more…)

Crude Rotation

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I’m in total agreement that grease monkeys need not get excited unless they rip apart 5430s.  However, this week marks the first in many weeks that WTI has rotated right back to where it all started – the Weekly Opening Range (WOR) that was set Sunday night:


Experts are saying oil will head to $200 or $20 – pick a side.  Meanwhile, it’s been a nice bullish week and we’ll change our minds if they start breaking down weekly opening ranges again.

There’s no point in having a bias, only order flow 😉

Stocks Adjusted for ‘Inflation’ and for Gold

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[edit] Post veers at little at the end, may require a couple reads…

[edit2] Attn: Subscribers, material dovetails with market analysis in #318

[edit3] Charts are quite large; click for full size

MarketWatch announces that the US stock market is back to the ‘real’ highs of the last secular bull market, prior to the bubble blow out. Here is the Dow adjusted for CPI, finally paying back investors after a 14 year debit in ‘real’ terms.

indu.cpi (more…)