Category Archives: Defeat

Preserving My Sanity

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If I was completely dependent on the market for my mental health, I would have made myself into a six foot tall Christmas ornament hanging from a coniferous tree long, long ago. To be sure, the market influences my disposition: I’m about fifty times happier than normal (a very tiny starting figure, certainly) when the market is getting killed. Over the past seven years, this has happened approximately never. Indeed, even the most recent history of the market looks like the chart below: it is either (a) going up quickly, or (b) it’s going up slowly. This is what markets look like when the VIX is approaching single digits, people.

0722-es

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So Now What?

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I think the two-word phrase that captures 2016 for the bears is: “disappointingly brief.” Disappointing because all attempts to drive the market lower are aborted. Brief because the attempts to do so often last only a day, or a tiny bit more. 2009-2016 has been awful for the bears, but 2016 has simply been awful in a different way.

Let’s take a look at how the bulls seems to have finally clinched real power: first, the Dow Jones Composite has had its channel violated. Before we all kill ourselves, I just want to point out that this same channel was violated to the downside briefly (see both tinted areas), so it’s not a totally lost cause.

0708-comp

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Kill Joy

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Well, now that ZH has offered up about 739 different articles about what a big deal Brexit is, they can all go back to – – I dunno – – rehashing the Fukushima reactor for the billionth time or something. At least, until the next Great Black Hope comes along. Because, the thing is every single time one of these Things That Will Change Everything comes along, it amounts to the same thing for the past seven years:

0623-jack

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