The June 18 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole has a few less stock charts this week in order to ramp up the macro talk, which appeared periodically through the report; but especially in the Precious Metals and Bonds segments. Excerpted from NFTRH 452…
Bonds & Related Indicators (and more macro discussion)
The target for TLT continues to be around 129. Treasury bonds are in bull trends (remember back a few months ago to all the bond hatred in the media). How does an eventual decline in bonds square with what we just noted above regarding Q4 2008? [work done in the preceding Precious Metals segment] Treasury bonds were a wonderfully bullish asset during Armageddon ’08 and who’s to say that an upside blow off may not be coming sooner rather than later amid massively over bullish sentiment? I mean, there is certainly no stop sign at our 129 target. Sentiment, as we are all too aware, can take a long while to manifest in pricing.
NFTRH’s ‘Currencies’ segment (one among a report filled with critical insight across all major market segments and many of the stocks therein) went off its usual brief message and riffed into some macro discussion on inflation’s post-2011 path. Excerpted from the May 28th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole…
Uncle Buck’s index is weak and the SMA 50 is crossing below the SMA 200. Before long we will be reading about it in the media. Now let’s consider a theme we’ve promoted for years; when the media trumpet a “DEATH CROSS!” * it is time to brace for the opposite implication to the media’s bearish promotion. Our view has after all, included a decline to the mid-90s for the index. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is decent right at the SMA 50, USD/EUR and USD/CHF are at lateral support and USD is at least neutral vs. the Commodity currencies. (more…)
An email from a reader (of the eLetter, I think) calling me out on trying to make too many correlations in a dysfunctional market (I think that was his bottom line point, and he’s got a good point) got me thinking about the Silver/Gold ratio and some pretty interesting post-2011 dysfunction (so it seems) in the markets.
Markets that made sense in certain ways prior to 2011 no longer make sense in the same ways. For instance, the S&P 500 used to be correlated to the Silver/Gold ratio, which itself was positively correlated to inflation and/or inflationary economic growth. Gold also liked for silver to be leading it, not the other way around.
I used to make fun of the FOMC rate hike “decision” language in the mainstream media because under the Obama administration and its economic policies overseen by the Fed’s monetary policy, there really was no decision, was there? It was ZIRP-eternity, interrupted by a lone and token rate hike in December 2015 (the Dec. 2016 hike does not count because the transition to a new administration and policy regime was already known; in effect, the Fed has already made its first hike under Trump).
According to the traders who make up the Fed Funds futures, there is no decision tomorrow, either. From CME Group, we have virtually no one predicting two successive rate hikes.
The title was not meant as a play on words in reference to Operation Twist, but now that I think about it, maybe it should be. The Post-Twist financial world is far different than it was before the genius that is Ben Bernanke’s ‘bigger than yours or mine’ brain concocted a maniacal plan that would “sanitize inflation” signals from the bond market and break the then highly elevated yield curve.*
So, why is today like early 2013 and why is there a twist to that view? Because two indicators have come together to point to economic stability (at least) in the US, with the twist being that other indicators are pointing to a potential unchaining of inflation this time, unlike the 2013 time frame, which was in the grips of global deflation (and Goldilocks in the US).
For further thoughts on inflation and the content of this article
The post title is best when drawled in Gomer’s thick southern accent. (e.g. “Surprise, surprise, surprise!”)
I realize Gomer Pyle was way before the time of much of my reading audience, but for the last few weeks I’ve been hearing him in my head as not only NFTRH, but now the wider financial media get on the idea that things are not as bad as had been generally perceived going into the hype fest known as Brexit. Most recently, a writer who always keeps an even keel, Chris Ciovacco, has summarized the situation nicely (as posted at Biiwii).
We have been tracking the coming of an economic bounce phase for a few months now. This dates back to pre-Brexit when market sentiment was over bearish but leading economic signals from the Semiconductor Equipment sector and manufacturing were arguing for economic firming. Voila! We have since had ‘economic surprise’ indexes turn up and it is now two strong Payrolls reports in a row. Funny how leading indicators… lead.
But another component of this economic view is the prospect that this firming could come with an old friend that always shows up eventually after policy makers have been given too long a leash (and since inflationary policy has been in effect in one form or another since Q4 2008, I’d say that is a pretty long leash). Yes, our plan is currently operating to the Greenspan era blueprint, an inflationary blueprint that can see asset markets from the Precious Metals to Emerging Markets to Asia to US Technology rise in tandem.