This past week, we experienced yet another horrendous terrorist attack in New York City. And, amazingly, just like what occurred after several other terrorist attacks that have been experienced over the last year, the market rallied right after the attack.
It has almost gotten to the point that people now expect the stock market to rally after a terrorist attack. Have we really become this warped in our thinking? Must we hold fast to ridiculous notions that news is what drives the stock market to the point that we have to resign ourselves to believing that the market will rally “because” of a terrorist attack? Do you not see how ridiculous these perspectives really are?
Yet, if the market dropped after a terrorist attack, there is no question in my mind that every analyst and their mother would be absolutely certain that the market dropped specifically due to the terrorist attack. Every article the next day would have been pointing to the attack being the definitive “cause” of the market drop. And, if I then challenged this false exogenous causation theory, the response I would receive is “don’t you believe your eyes?” Yet, not a single analyst dares to suggest that the markets are rallying because of news of terrorist attacks despite seeing many instances of this occurring over the last two years. Do, they not believe their eyes? (more…)
Happy Friday, everyone. Greetings from the Starbucks on the Google campus, where I’ve spent so many days and nights writing about the market while charging up the ol’ car. While I am usually quite prolific, my writing output cranked way down the past couple of days (and, hey, what’s with Springheel Jack? He used to be like clockwork, and now it’s like a post or two a week?) Anyway, I intend to resume my accustomed output.
As a comment cleaner, though, I’ll share a brief thought or two with respect to Elliott Wave. Many people – – the vast majority, it seems – – scoff at this realm as a ridiculous pseudo-science, akin to astrology, tarot card reading, or using planetary cycles. They could be absolutely right. But I haven’t utterly dismissed it.
I recently read a missive by John Mauldin wherein he makes an observation of what he is seeing from similar types of “analysis” of the stock market today:
“. . . a quick search of the usual suspects on the internet reveals a metric boatload of market analysts complaining about sky-high valuations, 8.5 years of bull market momentum, passive investing, over-concentration in cash-flow producing assets and the impending doom of a correction so massive it will clean our colons as well as our bank accounts.”
For those of you who read Seeking Alpha regularly, what percentage of the articles about the general equity markets have you read that have pointed to us being in a strong bull market and continuing much higher over the last 2 years? Based upon the ranking of the market analysts on this site, it would certainly suggest that most of the articles have leaned bearish, and, yes, I am being kind with that categorization. I mean, are these articles really necessary to explain to me that there are risks inherent in the financial markets? And, here I thought making money was easy. (more…)
Note from Tim: In case it isn’t screamingly obvious, I did not write this post.
Many will simply read the headline to this article, and use it as support for their belief in the market striking a multi-year top right now. I mean, aren’t headlines like this proof that the market is overheated?
Well, the answer is a definite “sometimes.” You see, back in 2015 and 2016 I was writing articles with headlines saying that we are going to target the 2500SPX region. And, if you thought that those headlines were portending the end of the bull market, then you were clearly wrong. So, consider, maybe this headline is prescient rather than a contrarian signal.
By Mike Golembesky, ElliottWaveTrader.net
In early September I wrote an article that asked the question, “Is it back to buy the dip or time to sell the rip?”
Since the publication of that article, the Dow has moved up over 900 points off of the low that was struck on September 5th. So clearly the answer to the question asked early this month was that it was still indeed time to buy the dip on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
We now ask how much higher can the Dow go prior to seeing a significant retracement as we enter the final quarter of 2017? (more…)
I have made a ground-breaking discovery this past week. It is so earth shattering, that it will literally change the course of my life, and may cause you to change yours as well. Let me explain.
Maybe you believe that the stock market volatility was the reason the metals rose? Well, the S&P500 is within 2% of its all-time highs, yet the metals have continued to rally alongside the market.
And, maybe you believe that North Korea is the reason that the metals have rallied? Well, I have dealt with that issue last week, so I do not have to re-address it here again. But, suffice it to say that anyone who has really followed geopolitical events will know that gold has moved in completely opposite directions during such tensions through history, and they will never provide directional guidance for the metals. (more…)
I was very impressed with these two charts from Elliott Wave International, which they have kindly allowed me to publish here on Slope.