Overview Of The Metals Market
First published on Sat Jul 8 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: As I see many metals investors and traders begin to throw in the towel, I wanted to take this opportunity to again explain why I will not count myself amongst them just yet. However, I will explain below what it would take to have me begin to look for lower lows in the overall complex relative to 2015, since I have been asked so often. (And, I usually get those questions as the market bottoms and begins a strong rally).
While the market did not follow through on the immediate bullish set up I outlined over the last several weeks, it does not invalidate the larger degree perspective we still see in the market. And as sentiment becomes more and more bearish, there are many more signs that a strong rally is setting up to take hold. But, again, even though the smaller degree immediate bullish set up invalidated, and we will have to await the next one to set up, I think that anyone aggressively maintaining on the short side of the market will likely overstay their welcome.
For the last several years, when we were still below the 1800 region in the SPX, we have been prognosticating that the market is going to head to the 2537-2611SPX region before any correction will be seen. Thus far, the market is still on target.
As George Santayana wisely said, “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” And, it seems that Ms. Yellen is forgetting her history.
The market made a new all-time high this past week. However, the manner in which it pulled back from that all-time high on Friday has caused me to slightly modify my expectations.
I have now seen about a dozen articles over the last week, mostly presented as head-scratching ramblings, discussing the breakdown of so many “correlations.” One of the recent articles noted:
“Under normal circumstances, you could wake up on any given day, take one look at the yen, and make a pretty solid prediction about how Treasurys traded overnight and/or how the Nikkei held up. And vice versa. Lately, that relationship has broken down almost entirely.”
And, in early 2017, even Morgan Stanley had taken notice:
“Regional correlations, cross-asset correlations and individual stock and FX correlations have fallen simultaneously. That’s unusual; we haven’t seen a shift this severe in over a decade . . .”
Yet, despite pointing out how the market does not make sense, some of the same authors attempt to use the paradigms that broke down in order to explain that which they say does not make sense. Yes, you heard me right. They recognize that their analysis methodology has failed to keep them on the correct side of the market, yet attempt to explain that failure using the same methods which they noted have failed them.
One attempted to “explain” why correlations have broken down through a, as he put it, “truly torturous, yet completely plausible, explanation for what we’re seeing in equities and rates.”
Does Elliott Wave voodoo magic work?
Lots of people who study Elliott wave theory have conflicting counts. Many are looking for complex “4th wave patterns” ..
But is it possible that the most basic Elliott wave pattern formed under our nose without us easily noticing it?
The SPX has continued its rally towards the ideal 2410SPX region this past week that we presented to you a month ago. And, it seems we still have a few squiggles to the upside left before this pattern is completed, and then tested.
Those with a short bias in this market have not fared very well. At each and every twist and turn, the market has proved its bullish intent, and continues to confirm our expectations that our long-term target of 2537-2611SPX will be met, if not even possibly exceed by next year.
In fact, I have warned for quite some time that we will begin to see former bears turning quite bullish, and we have seen this occur over the last several months. While I still do not believe we have reached the euphoric levels needed to mark a significant top, many former bears are coming over to the dark side.
Is It A Bull Market Or Bear Market In Metals?
First published on Saturday May 13 for members of ElliottWaveTrader.net: Without fail, each and every time the metals have dropped since bottoming over a year ago, many panic and proclaim the bear market to have returned. Moreover, many have looked to the USD as their guide to what the metals will do, and are completely befuddled when the dollar trades in tandem with the metals, as we have seen for almost two months.
As for me, well, since I was taught at a young age not to “ASSUME,” I only listen to price and try to ignore emotion as much as humanly possible. For this reason, I rely on my analysis to make decisions, as relying upon emotion often puts you on the wrong side of the market at the exact worst time. (more…)