Category Archives: Economy

Semi Bullish?

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As an email from [omitted] entitled “Cyclical Indicators Soar” hits my inbox, I thought I’d update a cyclical indicator of another kind. You know, the friggin’ cyclical indicator that preceded them all? Why, it’s none other than our Canary in a Coal Mine, the Semi sector and in particular, Semi Equipment. The progression and projection we used back in 2013 was Semi Equipment → Semis → General Manufacturing → Jobs → Completely bubble headed euphoric mania with a business friendly corporate stooge in the White House. Okay, well I just added that last part in, but you get the point.

The answer to the title question is no. We’ve put forth reason to believe that the earliest of birds, the Semi Equipment sector, may have issues in 2018. What’s more, this warning to ignore a MarketWatch article and the newly bullish fund manager it highlighted came exactly 2 days before the SOX index made its top. (more…)

The Big Macro Play Ahead

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At NFTRH, we are about major macro turning points above all else. Of course, it is often years between these turning points or points of significant change so we are also about the here and now, and managing the trends, Old Turkey style.*

Since we are all learning all the time, I have no problem admitting to you that while right and bullish on commodities and stocks in 2009, after becoming bullish on the precious metals in Q4 2008, I completely ignored Old Turkey due to my inner biases. The result has been that after taking excellent profits from the precious metals bull, personally, I have greatly under performed the stock market bull despite holding a bullish analytical view for the majority of the post-2012 period.

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Baltic Dry Index… Freak Show Here

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Here we take a look at the BDI once again and marvel at its complex Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern with compound shoulders. Of course, that is a TA’s way of baffling ’em with technical sounding bullshit when what he really means is ‘look at that freakish thing; I don’t really know what it is but man it looks bullish!’

BDI is a shipping calculation, not an index; and hence, who really knows if it even translates well to a stock chart? But in my highly technical opinion, man, this freak looks bullish (and positive for the global economy). (more…)

As Good as it Gets; Like 2000 With a TWIST

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Preface from Tim which has nothing to do with the post below: if you missed my mentioning it earlier, SlopeCharts now has text notes and searching (try a search of “Top“, and you see lots of charts from me………obviously). I hope you check it out!

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With the Semiconductor sector below but hailing its all-time highs, a lot of images come to mind; chief among them the 1999-2000 stock market bubble…

In early 2013 we noted a progression that would go on to birth the current economic expansion and stock market boom (of course, I didn’t come close to envisioning the extent of the boom that followed). I’ve belabored it often since, but here’s the short version of the progression yet again…

Fiscal Cliff drama resolves into market relief after Q4 2012 and this occurs right around the time we noted that Semiconductor Fab equipment bookings were ramping up → which projected a ramp in the cyclical Semiconductor industry → which would lead general manufacturing → which projected broader economic firming → which projected improving employment → and with ISM currently booming and the Semi cycle in full swing, voila, we are still on that continuum. (more…)

Effective Market Management: Art & Science

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saul steinberg
From Saul Steinberg’s 1954 drawing ‘The Line’

The notion that there is art involved in interpreting the economy and financial markets is probably heresy to many market participants and probably 99.9% of economists (that .1% guy being the one who’s excluded from the meetings and egghead social gatherings), whether they be right or left leaning (I always find it entertaining to hear right wing and left wing economists duke it out, as I did on NPR yesterday, coming to diametrically opposed conclusions amid the tax reform debate). (more…)