Category Archives: Economy

Canary’s Alive & Well

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Excerpted from this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 327), a 35 page report covering economic data and indicators, US and global stock markets, commodities and clear technical and macro fundamental parameters on gold, silver and the miners…

Canary’s Alive & Well

This week we will cover the ECB QE action, Euro, USD and their implications for global trade. We’ll also update a still-intact rally in gold, silver and the miners along with some (NFTRH+) trade opportunities. But first let’s review December’s Semiconductor Equipment sector Book-to-Bill ratio, just out on Friday evening and discuss some of the dynamics in play with respect to the ‘b2b’ and the US economy.

b2b

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A Good Way To Think About It

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It was interesting to hear, in the midst of the Davos love-fest where the world’s elite get together each year and pat each other on the back for a job well done, that Oxfam released their study stating that by next year the top 1% of humanity would own more than the remaining 99%. (Incidentally, for those interested in the topic of wealth distribution, check out the interesting SocialTrade stack.)

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Semiconductor Equipment Sector Update

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NFTRH 322 covered the usual range of markets, from US to global stocks to precious metals and commodities to currencies and indicators. It also included an extended economic discussion about the realities of the strong US economy and its dangerous underpinnings.

The economic segment began with this look at the Semiconductor Equipment sector, which was our first indicator on economic strength exactly 2 years ago and will be an initial indicator on economic deceleration when the time is right. (more…)

Economy Post-‘Jobs’ Report; Real or Memorex?

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Excerpted from the December 7 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (with minor edits):

Now it gets interesting because early in the bailout process the Fed talked about achieving certain employment milestones before hiking interest rates. Here we are at the 10th consecutive month with 200,000+ job gains (321,000 in November) and the jobless rate down to 5.8% and still there is a question on when or whether ZIRP will be withdrawn?

Well I am a visual learner so I for one can never get enough pictures to inform my thinking. Pardon the redundancy in this chart’s frequent appearances in NFTRH

sp500

Source: SlopeCharts

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US’s Debt Not Such a Big Deal –Mr. Gold

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[edit] Mr. Gold’s last paragraph is the tell on his bias, as he is unwilling or unable to conceal the contempt he has for people who were absolutely right for 10 years+ and are now suffering a bear market, both to their asset of choice and in sound monetary thinking.

“The vastly improved fiscal situation may last only a few years, but it’s a big plus for U.S. markets and the U.S. dollar — and another nail in the coffin for the gold bugs and doom-and-gloomers who can add one more item to the long list of things they got really, really wrong.”

Why the US’s Debt is No Longer Such a Big Deal --Howard Gold writing at MarketWatch

Before we find out about Howard’s thoughts on the debt situation (I am only going by the headline right now) let’s divide the GDP by the Federal Debt. This is a view of a deluded nation going right down a sink hole in service to greed and denial. (more…)

Exceptional Economic Energy Elation

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2014-11-26T192309Z_1_LYNXNPEAAP117_RTROPTP_3_OPEC-OIL_original

The StealthFlation Blog

Tis the season for exceptional economic greetings.  The entire energy complex and base metals are in a ferocious free fall, whilst the juiced stock market apologists and U.S. exceptionalist pompom wavers are out in force emphatically heralding the new found age of unabashed American consumerism which evidently is about to magically materialize. (more…)

Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating

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Excerpted from the November 23 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 318:

Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating

Since we were the only ones (so far as I could see) even talking about the Semiconductor equipment industry ramp up (and positive implications on US manufacturing) back in early 2013 I think we should continue to tend the sector and finish what we started.

Last month the SOX took a massive dive down to our noted long-term support area in a giant swoosh of hype (coming from the financial media by way of one company’s outlook) and emotion by way of stampeding herds trying to get out at all costs. It was just a setup as the SOX resides at new recovery highs this weekend. (more…)