Category Archives: Economy

Economy Post-‘Jobs’ Report; Real or Memorex?

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Excerpted from the December 7 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (with minor edits):

Now it gets interesting because early in the bailout process the Fed talked about achieving certain employment milestones before hiking interest rates. Here we are at the 10th consecutive month with 200,000+ job gains (321,000 in November) and the jobless rate down to 5.8% and still there is a question on when or whether ZIRP will be withdrawn?

Well I am a visual learner so I for one can never get enough pictures to inform my thinking. Pardon the redundancy in this chart’s frequent appearances in NFTRH

sp500

Source: SlopeCharts

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US’s Debt Not Such a Big Deal –Mr. Gold

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[edit] Mr. Gold’s last paragraph is the tell on his bias, as he is unwilling or unable to conceal the contempt he has for people who were absolutely right for 10 years+ and are now suffering a bear market, both to their asset of choice and in sound monetary thinking.

“The vastly improved fiscal situation may last only a few years, but it’s a big plus for U.S. markets and the U.S. dollar — and another nail in the coffin for the gold bugs and doom-and-gloomers who can add one more item to the long list of things they got really, really wrong.”

Why the US’s Debt is No Longer Such a Big Deal --Howard Gold writing at MarketWatch

Before we find out about Howard’s thoughts on the debt situation (I am only going by the headline right now) let’s divide the GDP by the Federal Debt. This is a view of a deluded nation going right down a sink hole in service to greed and denial. (more…)

Exceptional Economic Energy Elation

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2014-11-26T192309Z_1_LYNXNPEAAP117_RTROPTP_3_OPEC-OIL_original

The StealthFlation Blog

Tis the season for exceptional economic greetings.  The entire energy complex and base metals are in a ferocious free fall, whilst the juiced stock market apologists and U.S. exceptionalist pompom wavers are out in force emphatically heralding the new found age of unabashed American consumerism which evidently is about to magically materialize. (more…)

Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating

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Excerpted from the November 23 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 318:

Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating

Since we were the only ones (so far as I could see) even talking about the Semiconductor equipment industry ramp up (and positive implications on US manufacturing) back in early 2013 I think we should continue to tend the sector and finish what we started.

Last month the SOX took a massive dive down to our noted long-term support area in a giant swoosh of hype (coming from the financial media by way of one company’s outlook) and emotion by way of stampeding herds trying to get out at all costs. It was just a setup as the SOX resides at new recovery highs this weekend. (more…)

Economic Snapshot

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Excerpted from this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 314:

Our view has been that a stronger US dollar would eventually start to eat away at corporate results, especially in the manufacturing sector and at US based companies with a  global customer base.  The decline in revenues thus far is something to be watched because where revenues go, earnings eventually follow.

[edit: the segment previous to this one reviewed a contrast between strong earnings and sagging revenues with companies that have reported earnings thus far]

An article by Doug Short published at Business Insider on Friday illustrates how the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) called for a recession in 2011 and was promptly made to eat that call first by Operation Twist and then by balls out QE3.  All the while as ZIRP has quietly whirred along in the background for 6 years. (more…)

NFTRH; Multi-Market Update

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I am making public a premium update for NFTRH subscribers that was emailed and posted here for subscribers a couple days ago. Two reasons… 1) I want you to consider subscribing because I believe NFTRH is the most comprehensive and grounded market management service out there, including in-week updates like this one and a weekend letter loaded with evolving information taking shape in a rational manner, and 2) because there is still very relevant information in this post that I think public readers can benefit from.

To begin, what I perceive as the notable event of the day is that the gold-silver ratio (GSR) has broken out. This was included as part of a public post earlier today. Here is the chart from that post…

gld.slv

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The Shot Heard Round The Valley World: WORRY

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The greatest issue facing Silicon Valley is the one thing many newly minted and aspiring entrepreneurs have taken for granted: the money.

Many believe this gravy train of a never-ending Venture Capital/Angel Investor class will not only always be there, but the ranks will swell becoming even larger with burgeoning pocketbooks filled with their own newly minted IPO greenbacks.

Problem is for a great many, they have never seen the real Jeckyll and Hyde personality of “investor funding.” (more…)