Category Archives: Economy

Semi Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating

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Excerpted from the November 23 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 318:

Semiconductor Equipment Book-to-Bill Ratio Moderating

Since we were the only ones (so far as I could see) even talking about the Semiconductor equipment industry ramp up (and positive implications on US manufacturing) back in early 2013 I think we should continue to tend the sector and finish what we started.

Last month the SOX took a massive dive down to our noted long-term support area in a giant swoosh of hype (coming from the financial media by way of one company’s outlook) and emotion by way of stampeding herds trying to get out at all costs. It was just a setup as the SOX resides at new recovery highs this weekend. (more…)

Economic Snapshot

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Excerpted from this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 314:

Our view has been that a stronger US dollar would eventually start to eat away at corporate results, especially in the manufacturing sector and at US based companies with a  global customer base.  The decline in revenues thus far is something to be watched because where revenues go, earnings eventually follow.

[edit: the segment previous to this one reviewed a contrast between strong earnings and sagging revenues with companies that have reported earnings thus far]

An article by Doug Short published at Business Insider on Friday illustrates how the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) called for a recession in 2011 and was promptly made to eat that call first by Operation Twist and then by balls out QE3.  All the while as ZIRP has quietly whirred along in the background for 6 years. (more…)

NFTRH; Multi-Market Update

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I am making public a premium update for NFTRH subscribers that was emailed and posted here for subscribers a couple days ago. Two reasons… 1) I want you to consider subscribing because I believe NFTRH is the most comprehensive and grounded market management service out there, including in-week updates like this one and a weekend letter loaded with evolving information taking shape in a rational manner, and 2) because there is still very relevant information in this post that I think public readers can benefit from.

To begin, what I perceive as the notable event of the day is that the gold-silver ratio (GSR) has broken out. This was included as part of a public post earlier today. Here is the chart from that post…

gld.slv

(more…)

The Shot Heard Round The Valley World: WORRY

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The greatest issue facing Silicon Valley is the one thing many newly minted and aspiring entrepreneurs have taken for granted: the money.

Many believe this gravy train of a never-ending Venture Capital/Angel Investor class will not only always be there, but the ranks will swell becoming even larger with burgeoning pocketbooks filled with their own newly minted IPO greenbacks.

Problem is for a great many, they have never seen the real Jeckyll and Hyde personality of “investor funding.” (more…)

What Happens When It’s Easier To Pay No Wages Rather Than A Minimum

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As of today there is no hotter subject following on the heels of Obama-Care than the current fight brewing in the minimum wage debate.

Regardless of which side of the aisle (or counter) you’re on, the argument as to demand a government regulated hike of upwards of 50% or more in some places puts a question squarely on the businesses owners that must and will be answered: channeling the Clash, Should I stay – Or Should I go?

There are some arguments within this debate that have some valid points. i.e., We do the same for child labor. You can’t hire a 10-year-old at .10 cents an hour to clean out the grease traps at your restaurant, or sweep the floors and so forth where a competitor might try to use an 8-year-old at a nickel. It allowed for all businesses to be on a level playing field at the lowest of rungs. i.e., The entry-level.

Today the entry-level position has morphed into something far different when you talk to anyone who’s never owned or run a business. It’s no longer thought of as “entry-level.” It’s now looked upon in the ways one would look to some form of “career choice.” (more…)

Visualizing the Vanishing Money Velocity Vortex……by BDI

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Cloud-Seeding

Left without the original clean source of healthy naturally effervescent American spring water abundantly spouting up from the bedrock below, the misguided monetary authorities have dangerously attempted to artificially inseminate the clouds above, in the hopes of drenching the parched U.S. soil below with torrential rain, so as to generate their much heralded and forever promised green shoots. Regrettably for us all, when these artificially seeded clouds eventually do burst, they will produce nothing but the toxic inflationary rains of StealthFlation. (more…)